Thursday, September 25, 2008

Location, location, location

I can certainly understand some of the appeal behind the New Democrats' strategy of labelling the Cons as the party of Bay Street. But I have to wonder whether it's the best way of defining Harper and his party for the balance of the campaign.

Off the top, there are two obvious upsides to using the Bay Street reference. First, and perhaps most importantly, it fits extremely well into the general New Democratic message. After all, to the extent the focus is on kitchen table vs. boardroom table, it certainly makes some sense to associate one's opponents with the best-known set of boardrooms in the country.

And to the extent the Libs are still in the race, the shorthand applies equally well to them as to the Cons - helping to reinforce the NDP's main themes against both of its key competitors. (Of course, there's a flip side to that which I'll get to later.)

But then, it seems clear that the primary NDP strategy is focused on the Cons. And trying to tie them to Bay Street may pose a couple of problems going forward.

First, it's less likely to resonate with the public than identifying the Harper Cons with their Alberta base. Describing the Cons as Oil Sands Steve and the Calgary Conservatives both fits perfectly with the image the NDP would ideally want to paint, and probably comes closer to how most swing voters are likely to already see Harper and his party. And the NDP surely can't want to make its sales pitches any more difficult than they have to be.

More importantly, though, the one area where the NDP most needs to ramp up its public support is Ontario. And had it responded to the Cons' attack on Ottawa by painting itself as the defender of Ontario (not to mention Quebec) against the Cons' attempt to impose Alberta values and favour the oil sands at the expense of central Canadian manufacturing, the NDP would have been in an ideal position to become the clear alternative to the Cons in the one province where the Libs are still holding their own.

Instead, the New Democrats have not only made it somewhat more difficult for parts of Ontario to see them as an ally, but they may have left at least a slight opportunity for the Libs to paint themselves as Ontario's regional defender.

Mind you, it seems as likely as not that the current geographically-based titles will be quickly forgotten (if they even enter into the public consciousness). But from this angle, the NDP is likely best off doing its best to ensure that happens or switch to running against Calgary and the oil patch, rather than presenting an opening that even the Dion Libs might not miss.

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