Wednesday, July 11, 2007

An impending battle

Chantal Hebert notes that while the Cons' stay in office so far has been relatively quiet on the health-care front, they likely won't be able to avoid the issue much longer:
Ask seasoned political veterans to name the big issue lurking around the next corner in Canada and chances are the answer will be none of the topics that are currently consuming Parliament.

While global warming and Canada's fighting role in Afghanistan have taken centre stage on Parliament Hill since the last election, it is the inevitability of the resurgence of the debate on the future of medicare that is increasingly creeping into leading-edge public policy thinking...

Watching Parliament these days, it is hard to believe that a provincial challenge to the Canada Health Act could be only a few months away. Health care has no profile in the current House of Commons; it has fallen off the official opposition radar. If an election had taken place this spring, it would not have been a major issue. But that could change quickly.

The Prime Minister knows first-hand about the perils of looking the other way when it comes to files that are not the forte of his Conservative party. Harper, who came to power prepared to treat the environment as a third-tier issue, is still paying for his hit-and-miss approach to climate change in the polls. As the minority government looks to the challenges of a longer-than-expected first mandate this summer, it is bound to be picking up rumblings on the medicare front.

It may well choose to ignore an issue that has largely defeated the previous generation of federal and provincial leaders. But if some of the country's top public policy practitioners are to be believed, Canadian politicians can run but they will not be able to hide for long from a no-holds-barred debate on medicare.
It seems fairly clear that it won't be long before the usual federal reluctance to question anything that happens in Quebec has to give way to the importance of the issues being debated - and Harper surely can't be looking forward to facing that reality. But it's worth noting that it isn't only the Cons who risk being caught behind the curve when it comes to health care.

While Hebert is right to note that the "official opposition" has been asleep at the switch so far, there's good reason for her to limit the statement to that effect. Even in the face of other, more publicized debates surrounding the environment and Afghanistan, the NDP has continued to make health care a signature issue by pointing out where the Cons' negligence has undermined the Canada Health Act, pushing for ways to strengthen the public system as it stands, and indeed taking its place on the front lines of the upcoming Quebec debate. And there could be little better opening for the NDP than for Jack Layton to be the most prominent national voice on the side of single-payer health care as the issue moves to the front of the line in public discussions.

It probably isn't too late now for the Libs to use their relative strength in seat numbers and connections to take a significant opposition role to preserve the Canada Health Act. But the debate will go on whether or not the Libs bother to participate...and they'll be the ones who face the risk of being seen as irrelevant if they attempt to appease their Quebec cousins by sitting out such an important discussion.

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