On alternatives

Now that even the Cons can't keep a straight face while claiming that the softwood lumber capitulation is in any meaningful way a good deal for Canada, they've switched to a different tactic, putting the forestry industry on notice of their intention do everything in their power to make sure that any alternatives are worse than signing on:

Industry players say they expect the Tory government is setting up an exit strategy — in case the deal flops — that entails blaming Canadian timber companies for rejecting the deal, which the Conservatives have argued is the best agreement possible...

Despite the agreement's stipulation that Canadians companies must drop softwood-related lawsuits, the Tories insist that the deal will not be held hostage by a minority of companies...

“If industry rejects this deal, everyone walks away and absolutely nothing about previous Liberal government's costly stopgap approach to the deal is guaranteed.”...

Appearing before a House of Commons committee Monday, Mr. Emerson cautioned that things would turn “ugly” if Canada rejected the softwood deal, because the U.S. timber lobby would launch fresh trade campaigns against this country and drive up timber-duty rates.

“I am here to tell you I think the litigation cycle would be coming our way, and it would be ugly, there would be job losses, there would be company failures, communities would be in very difficult situations,” he told MPs.

Mr. Emerson also warned that negotiations would be “gone as an option for a minimum of three years” if the industry rejects the present deal.

Of course, there's some temptation to see if Canadians can get in writing the Cons' assurances that they won't subject Canada to another negotiation process as laughable as this one. But sadly, it seems all too likely that even if softwood lumber never comes up again, Harper will be looking for other areas in which to sell out Canada in exchange for a checkmark on his own list of things accomplished - and it's hard to see why Bush would refuse him the opportunity.

Meanwhile, the rest of the threat amounts to the most clear statement yet that Canada's government has no interest in supporting Canadian industry against foreign extortion, no matter how many jobs are lost in the process. Which should come as a warning not only to the forestry industry, but also to any other Canadian businesses who might expect their government to be on their side.

Update: Lest anybody think the forestry industry would take Emerson's admonitions lying down, the backlash started today:

Softwood producers reacted angrily Thursday to Ottawa's threat that it will offer them no further help if they reject the Canada-U.S. timber truce, with one person warning that some CEOs might boycott next week's summit with International Trade Minister David Emerson...

“I am not sure CEOs are going to feel like it's a good use of their time to fly to Toronto just to have the riot act read to them,” said Jamie Lim, president of the Ontario Forest Industries Association.

An irate British Columbia lumber industry executive warned that some CEOs might skip next Wednesday's meeting if Ottawa doesn't abandon its hardball tone...

The threat drew a sarcastic response from a Manitoba forestry executive who says the five-year-old dispute has forced him to lay off one-third of his employees.

“I think that's a fantastic idea,” said Brock Cordes, the chief executive officer of North of Fifty, a Winnipeg-based lumber remanufacturer. “You wash your hands of Canada's second-largest industry, at a time when it is being devastated by the actions of a U.S. lumber [lobby],” he said, referring to the hard-line Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports that triggered the trade battle with Canada.

It'll be interesting to see whether Emerson tries to back out of next week's meeting first if it's clear that a large number of the would-be attendees aren't interested in being on the wrong end of a lecture. But it's obvious that the Cons now face an uphill battle trying to push the deal on anybody - and may well need to shift completely into blame-deflecting mode rather than putting much more effort into salvaging their excuse for an accomplishment.