On not showing weakness

The talk of (fully justified) trade retaliation looks like it's at an end, as Jim Peterson throws in the towel on softwood lumber:

It could be well into 2007 before the federal government applies retaliatory tariffs in the softwood lumber dispute, Trade Minister Jim Peterson said Tuesday.

Despite heightened rhetoric earlier in the day by high-ranking cabinet officials and the Prime Minister, Mr. Peterson said Canada would wait until after it received WTO approval and performed extensive consultation with Canadians before retaliatory tariffs would be considered in the softwood lumber dispute.

“We have not made that decision. We will pursue all measures including litigation, possible retaliation, and heightened political advocacy,” Mr. Peterson said.

Now, please correct me if I'm wrong in any of the following.

But as far as I can tell, there's been plenty of time for consultation while the illegal tariffs have been in place.

As far as I can tell, the current U.S. administration has no interest in allowing political advocacy to change its mind on anything.

And as far as I can tell, the reason we need to retaliate now is because the U.S. is merrily thumbing its nose at what was supposed to be binding litigation.

We have one tactic at this point with a chance of getting something accomplished. Peterson has just made it clear that that tactic won't get used until at least a congressional election cycle from now, by which time Bush will be too busy deciding where to put the "My Pet Goat" exhibit in his presidential library to care about foreign trade issues. The fact that Peterson is supposedly looking at sectors where tariffs could be effective doesn't do much good when the picture could change radically before tariffs are ever imposed.

Peterson's backing down leaves nobody in the U.S. political system with any reason to even try to compromise on softwood lumber, let alone accept the NAFTA ruling on its face. I'm not quite sure what justification there was for his statement, but the outcome for Canada's position is disastrous.

If there's any silver lining, it's from a domestic political standpoint. The Liberals' decision to follow tough talk with complete capitulation leaves the NDP as the only party with any claim to be willing to stand up for Canada's interests. Unless Peterson shifts course again, this should turn into a powerful issue next time out.