On asymmetrical warfare

In the wake of this week's U.S. elections - featuring a closer-than-expected contest for the presidency, and down-ballot results which look to disappointingly leave substantial power in Republican hands - there's been an outpouring of commentary criticizing the money that was put into campaigns which ultimately lost.

If there's a lesson we can draw from a broader set of political results, though, it's about the need for all-of-the-above politics - rather than an assumption that a single form of winning support can be counted on to make up for a lack of others.

In the U.S., the division between the air war and the ground war was stark. In the presidential race as well as major congressional battles, Democrats were able to pour loads of money into ads. 

But Biden's initial reluctance to pursue door-knocking at all, combined with a lack of effort to reach communities where it appears particularly important to win and turn out support, looks to have been a major factor behind some of the most disappointing results. And the assumption that text alerts and phoning would make up for a lack of in-person contact looks to have been thoroughly flawed.

That's particularly so since the Democrats' greatest successes look to have come in areas where ad blitzes from above (boosting voters' motivation) were paired with grassroots canvassing (which converted that motivation into turnout).

It appears that a similar dynamic also may have applied in Saskatchewan's provincial election - though the problem for the NDP arose on the former front.

Here, the prospect of an opportunistic snap spring election call in the midst of a pandemic always seemed particularly egregious given the Saskatchewan Party's reserves of corporate donations. The prospect of the government locking everybody indoors, then using its cash reserves to drown out all competing voices through electronic media, looked like about the most unfair and self-serving starting point one could imagine.

The election eventually took place on schedule, and COVID receded somewhat over the summer. As a result, the opposition parties were eventually able to get out door-knocking - albeit with some restrictions which did make communication more difficult. And on election day, the NDP was in its familiar situation of being able to reach target voters with a thorough ground game in priority ridings. 

But by that point, the party was fishing in a depleted and uninterested pool. Large numbers of mail-in ballots and advance voters proved to be more the result of a shift in turnout rather than an increase. For citizens who had seen far more government messaging than contrasting perspectives in the course of the campaign (particularly with what should have been major news going unreported through mainstream outlets in that time), it figures to have been relatively easy to decide that the pandemic offered a valid excuse to stay home. And the result was that the NDP's support on election day fell well short of what the polls suggested.

In sum, neither an air-war approach without a well-thought-out plan to engage with voters in their communities, nor a strong ground game in the face of a massive advertising disadvantage, is likely to represent a recipe for victory. But by the same token, the answer isn't to criticize the people who have built up one or the other, but to ensure the causes we support have enough of both to succeed.

[Edit: fixed & added wording.]

Friday Morning Links

Assorted content to end your week.

- Bruce Arthur writes that Doug Ford's already-pitiful response to COVID-19 is getting worse as Ontario opens up businesses in the midst of a deadly wave. And Adam Hunter reports that Saskatchewan businesses are worried about Scott Moe's refusal to require masks anywhere other than Saskatoon, Regina and Prince Alberta - a limitation which is particularly noteworthy given that the Sask Party's previous refusal to allow municipalities to pass mask mandates of their own was supposedly based on a desire for consistency across the province. 

- George Monbiot's series of columns on the UK's privatized COVID response examines continues with a look at a failing attempt to outsource testing and tracing operations in schools. Beyhan Farhadi examines the failings of Ontario's "concurrent classroom" system. And Alex Antonyshyn reports on one Alberta school division's decision to provide wellness days to allow staff to recuperate somewhat from the combination of excessive work burdens and pandemic response duties.

- Jeffrey Jones reports on yet another example of oil-industry consolidation which will ensure that whatever operations continue in a dying industry will employ as few people as possible. And Andrew Jeffrey reports that the Kenney UCP's attempts to jump-start coal mining by gutting environmental protections are likewise being met with closures and job losses as businesses move past the dirtiest sources of energy.

- Finally, Nathan Robinson writes that any solace we take from Joe Biden's eventual victory in the U.S. election needs to be tempered by concern that a contest between democracy and fascism resulted in anything less than a landslide. And Ako Ofudike discusses the voting public's worrisome lack of regard for honesty and ethics in the U.S. and Canada alike.

Wednesday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Zeke Hausfather reports that 2020 is projected to be the warmest year in recorded history. And Johnathan Watts reports that one of the most dire possible events which could lead to complete climate breakdown - the release of frozen methane deposits from the Arctic - appears to be happening far sooner than projected.

- Christopher Abbott writes about the futility of trying to maintain conservative political movements on a foundation of funding from a dying oil sector. And Nitish Pahwa recognizes that workers aren't buying climate denialism as a strategy to keep them employed.

- Meanwhile, Brennan Strandberg-Salmon highlights how a strong recovery for Canada will need to include the creation of sustainable jobs for young people who are otherwise in danger of missing a viable entry point into the workforce. And Mickey Francis notes that the U.S. continues to break records for renewable energy generation despite a hostile federal government.

- CBC News reports on polling showing that a strong majority of Canadians recognize a problem with how police deal with people of BIPOC communities. And Tom Cardoso reports on a needed push to eliminate systemic racial bias in prison risk assessments.

- Finally, Anand Giridharadas talks to Masha Gessen about the U.S.' last chance to avoid autocratic rule - both by voting out Donald Trump and his enablers, and by ensuring the result of that vote is given effect.

Monday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material to start your week.

- Anand Giridharadas writes that with Bernie Sanders in position to win the Democratic nomination for president, the U.S.' election will answer the question of whether the country belongs to billionaires or to everybody else. 

- Emily Bazelon discusses how the Trump administration's choice to stop enforcing labour law is making life even worse for American workers. And Jim Stanford writes that the employers complaining about a "skills gap" as an excuse for stagnant wages are responsible for setting up precarious jobs and failing to invest in their own employees.

- Kenneth Jackson reports on the federal government's failure to even track how many First Nations children are apprehended from their homes.

- Danyaal Raza writes about the dangers to Canada's universal health care system arising from the corporate-backed attempt to turn for-profit medicine into a constitutional principle.

- PressProgress highlights how Doug Ford's combination of mandatory online course credits and ballooning class sizes figures to make education entirely unmanageable.

- Finally, Mike Blanchfield reports on the Libs' acceptance of some transparency for future trade deals in order to secure the quick passage of the new version of NAFTA.