#ndpldr - Results and Thoughts

The votes are in, and Avi Lewis has been elected leader of the federal NDP on the first ballot. And while that doesn't come as a huge surprise based on what we knew about the race, there are a couple of parts of the outcome which bear watching.

First, to the extent there was any surprise in the outcome of the vote, it was Rob Ashton's finish in a distant fourth place. 

He'd received a substantial number of endorsements both from labour leaders and provincial elected officials, and his fund-raising was solidly ahead of the projected also-ran candidates. And it surely can't be a great sign that the candidate branded as the union choice was the weakest in the field at turning institutional resources into organizing results. 

Conversely, Tanille Johnston's placement in third was a pleasant surprise - which fit my own ballot if not my expectations. And it's certainly a plus that she's been recognized around the convention as a key leader for the NDP's future.

Meanwhile, as the newly-elected leader worked from minute one to bring the party together in solidarity, two provincial leaders unfortunately chose to undermine that effort. Naheed Nenshi's immediate disavowal of Lewis and the NDP could at least be explained away partially by a lack of personal connection to the party; Carla Beck's immediate declaration of a refusal to even meet with Lewis is both more surprising and more disappointing.

But ultimately, the leadership campaign determined who best represents the will of voters from coast to coast to coast - including in Alberta and Saskatchewan. And the choice to abandon the federal NDP and the national progressive movement just as they reach a point of revitalization and renewal will ultimately ensure primarily that those provincial wings miss out on what still looks to be a wave of energy and excitement around an impressive new leader.  

#ndpldr Roundup

One final collection of links and resources for those still deciding (or just wanting to learn more about the NDP leadership campaign):

- Marcel Nelson and Nathan Rao offer their take on how Avi Lewis has the potential to redefine left organizing in Canada. And Nora Loreto discusses some of the possible paths forward, while arguing that there's a need to work toward organizing on far more than just a partisan basis. 

- Jennifer Howard offers some advice for the candidates - though it's worth noting the apparent asymmetry in her expectations for a federal leader who is supposed to cater to the interests of provincial wings, and provincial leaders who are apparently able to use the federal leader as a punching bag. (And I'd argue the better answer is that both should work toward emphasizing and organizing around shared values, rather than looking to throw the other under the bus.)

- Markham Hislop interviews David McGrane about the campaign:

  

- And finally, Eleanor Wand and Marlo Glass report on the candidates' final pitches at the convention. And each of the candidates' showcases can be seen on CPAC:

 

 

 

 

 

Leadership 2026: Ballot and Endorsement

At this stage of the NDP leadership campaign, there seems to be little doubt which two candidates are the most qualified for the job and best positioned to hit the ground running from day one. Which makes it odd that of the many ballots I’ve seen circulating so far, none rank them in the first two positions. 

I’ll presume that’s a largely a matter of strategic messaging and voting, as people posting their ballots see it as important to be perceived voting against one or the other. (Needless to say, that makes for no small irony given how much reason NDP members have to challenge that mindset in federal elections.)

But I won’t be following the trend. So here’s how I’ll be ranking the candidates.

1. Avi Lewis

Since before the last federal election campaign, I’ve been emphasizing the need for the NDP and its leadership to adapt with organizing ambition and a willingness to resist and confront both the Trump regime, and the filthy rich class (spread across multiple parties) which has supported or enabled its abuses. 

Lewis is the only leadership candidate meeting the moment, offering the prospect of both party rebuilding and broader organizing. And the fact that he combines that needed approach with strong communication skills and deep political and media bona fides makes him my clear top choice.

2. Heather McPherson

She’s a reasonably close second behind Lewis as a potential spokesperson for the NDP, and her track record as a progressive leader is far better than you’d think from the petropolitical rhetoric being used to try to bully members into supporting her.

But this is not a moment to vote out of fear or resignation, nor to treat the federal NDP’s role as being limited to that of headwaiter to the party’s provincial wings. And the ubiquity of those themes among McPherson’s supporters signals that she’s not the right first choice.

3. Tanille Johnston

It may have been lost in the results of the 2025 election, but Johnston was already seen as a rising star candidate when she made her first federal run. And despite the NDP’s painful overall result and an associated Liberal vote split, she came extremely close to holding a seat which had rarely been more than a virtual coin flip even in better days for the party.

Which is to say that based on her strong personal profile, her ideas and her established organizing success, Johnston should be seen as one of key faces of the NDP’s future. And while she isn’t yet in the same tier as the candidates above her as a current leadership contender, I’d hope we’ll see her in another leadership race down the road.

4. Rob Ashton

Ashton does get credit for out-organizing my initial expectations, and for at least recognizing plenty of policies worth pursuing (though as PLG notes in his comment, those have rarely appeared in Ashton’s opportunities to speak contemporaneously). 

Ultimately, though, he too has spent too much of the campaign fighting either past battles or the wrong opponents to place any higher in my rankings.

5. Tony McQuail

While he’s made a valiant effort as a lower-profile candidate and brought plenty of worthwhile ideas to the race, McQuail is ultimately the candidate with the least prospect of rebuilding the NDP’s organization from a lead role. And so while I hope both he and his principles feature in the party’s future plans, he lands at the bottom of my leadership ballot.

Leadership 2026 Candidate Profile - Tanille Johnston

What We Knew

Tanille Johnston’s pitch to NDP leadership voters includes a strong combination of community governance and personal activism as an Indigenous leader. And she’s highlighted those themes throughout the campaign, while also going through several rounds of mutual aid with Tony McQuail which offer an example as to how to provide distinct visions while ultimately pulling in the same direction.

What We’ve Learned

Unfortunately, Johnston’s personal appeal and strengths on paper don’t seem to have translated into a particularly strong campaign. 

While she and McQuail have both managed to assemble enough support to stay in the race, neither has been able to do much more than that. Johnston’s list of endorsements is modest based on her track record, and she hasn’t been especially impressive in the course of the debates.

What She’s Proposing

While Johnston hasn’t presented as comprehensive a set of policies as the front-runners, she can take credit for dealing in depth with a couple of issues. Her detailed and principled proposals for Indigenous reconciliation and empowerment should offer the eventual winner an ideal starting point for the party to embrace, and her thoughtful AI platform offers a helpful counter to the blind hype espoused by the Libs and Cons.

What to Watch For

In any ranked-voting campaign there’s always potential for the first supporters of a lower-ranked candidate to substantially affect the voting process if the final outcome is close, and Johnston’s support could plausibly go to either of the primary candidates if she makes an endorsement of her own. Beyond that, Johnston has certainly confirmed her place as one of the leaders who should be able to rebuild the NDP’s Vancouver Island stronghold, and help set the party’s long-term direction. 

#ndpldr Roundup

A few links and updates from the NDP's federal leadership campaign...

- The (primarily) English leadership debate can be found via CBC:

 

- Perspectives Journal's January issue focuses on the leadership race and its relationship to the NDP and Canada's progressive movement generally. And Peggy Nash has also been interviewing the leadership candidates for Perspectives Journal: see so far her interviews with Tony McQuail, Heather McPherson, Tanille Johnston and Rob Ashton.

- Laurie Adkin examines the bad-faith complaints about Avi Lewis - including familiar demands of fealty to exploitative oil and gas interests with no regard for the harm they do to public health and well-being - from inside and outside the leadership campaign.  

- Finally, Dale Smith offers his take on the campaign, recognizing that the likely decision will come down to Lewis versus McPherson. 

On high-level tracking

With the January 28th membership deadline approaching for voters in the NDP's federal leadership campaign, I'll offer a brief high-level look at the campaign so far - and how it fits into the wider political scene. 

For the most part (other than the exceptions I'll get to shortly), the campaign seems to be best explained as reflecting a party recognizing the need to build itself up in generally rather than fighting for existing territory. Litmus tests which would have been applied in previous races (including bilingualism and experience in office) have largely fallen by the wayside in light of the actual candidate pool, while the interactions between the lower-ranking candidates in particular have been marked by regular cooperation to keep people in the race rather than any sense of competition. 

The result has been the presence of candidates to meet most target NDP voters, without a great deal of clash between them. And the stature of the approved candidates has generally fit the relative strength of their prototype within the party.

The two most prominent candidates have been Heather McPherson, following the urban prairie model whose success at the provincial level has made it the default for the party as it stands, and Avi Lewis running as an urban environmentalist and champion of economic equality. Both have some measure of national profile (McPherson as a sitting and well-respected MP, Lewis based on his media experience and personal ties), and would have fit comfortably among the class of contenders in previous leadership campaigns. 

As for the rest of the candidate, Rob Ashton has been a consensus choice for much of the labour movement and seems to have gained the most profile from the campaign to date. And his challenge to Lewis seems to have been treated as the first major oppositional moment of the campaign - though I'm not sure the end result is a bad one for Lewis, as a willingness to challenge rip-and-ship resource extraction and the toxic politics it's funded would seem to be a mantle that will serve him well in the leadership campaign. 

Tanille Johnston has reflected both Indigenous inclusion and municipal political experience, and Tony McQuail has offered a rural-agricultural perspective. But each would figure to have been a distant also-ran in any other leadership campaign in recent memory, and it's difficult to see a path to victory for either of them absent some serious negative impressions around the front-runners. 

The most obvious exclusion from the current mix has been any Quebecois or other francophone candidate. Yves Engler and then Bianca Mugyenyi have lurked around the race as informal candidates, and on paper would appear to add to the inclusiveness of the campaign as a whole. But unfortunately their efforts seem to have been aimed more at sniping from the sidelines than participating in the actual campaign - and while I would have preferred to see Engler's candidacy approved, there's significant reason to doubt the campaign is much worse off for his being rejected. 

For now, there's plenty of reason for people interested in the future of the NDP to at least ensure they're able to vote, while planning to take a critical look at the candidates as the campaign progresses. 

NDP Leadership 2026 Reference Page

A one-stop source for general information about the NDP's 2026 leadership election. 

General Information
NDP Constitution (PDF)
Leadership Rules (PDF)
NDP Leadership 2026

Candidate Information

Candidate	Website	Bluesky	Profile	Prediction Ranking	Ballot Ranking
Rob Ashton	Rob Ashton - A Voice for Everyday People	@rob-for-ndp-leader.bsky.social	Here	3	4
Tanille Johnston	Tanille for NDP Leader	@votetanille.bsky.social	Here	4	3
Avi Lewis	Lewis for Leader - Avi Lewis for NDP Leader	@avilewis.ca	Here	1	1
Heather McPherson	Heather McPherson for Leader of Canada's NDP	@heathermcpherson.bsky.social	Here	2	2
Tony McQuail	Tony McQuail Green Progressive	@mcquail4ndp.bsky.social	Here	5	5

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