Saskatchewan Election Roundup

The NDP unveiled its health-care platform today, and learned in short order that the minister currently responsible for our province's health isn't so strong in the accuracy department. [Update: Or the admitting one's own gross error department.] The Saskatchewan Party is mirroring the Harper Cons' propensity for targeted but substance-free tax goodies, while the Libs follow the federal Cons' 2006 pitch for the most highly visible and economically indefensible single tax cut they can think of. And the Greens unveiled their own health-care suggestion with a proposal for no-cost ambulance service.

Meanwhile, the province's media decided to limit participation in the election debate to two parties. But I wouldn't see much upside to Dwain Lingenfelter acceding to the request of other parties' supporters to boycott the debate if it isn't opened up, since the opportunity to avoid debates altogether would presumably have Brad Wall doing cartwheels.

On deep impacts

The news that Larissa Shasko has stepped down as leader of Saskatchewan's Greens to work on Yens Pedersen's campaign has already received plenty of attention. But it's worth noting that based on the ridings involved, Shasko's move may have more impact than would appear to be the case at first glance - having the potential to tilt two swing ridings toward the NDP if the provincial race turns out to be similar to the one we saw in 2007.

Most obviously, Regina South was a close swing seat in 2007, and one which figured to be a top NDP target even if overall public support had shifted somewhat toward the Sask Party. This time out, Yens Pedersen has had well over a year to campaign as a high-profile candidate (after winning the 2007 nomination only at the start of that year's campaign), and his run for the NDP's leadership gives him a much stronger profile both inside and outside the NDP.

From that starting point, Shasko's support will offer Pedersen an experienced organizer on campus, and send the message that young and environmentally-conscious voters can be entirely comfortable with Pedersen. And in a riding where even a shift of a few dozen voters could make all the difference, that looks to be a huge bonus for Pedersen.

Meanwhile, Shasko's move may also have repercussions in Moose Jaw. Having previously run in three federal campaigns, two provincial ones and the most recent City Council race, Shasko was sure to be far more familiar to voters than any possible replacement.

Which isn't to say that her departure figures to have too much direct impact in Shasko's riding of Moose Jaw Wakamow, where the NDP's Deb Higgins looks to be in the driver's seat once again. But Moose Jaw North was the closest riding in the province in 2007, with the Saskatchewan Party's Warren Michelson winning by a mere 33 votes. And while the NDP faces a somewhat tougher race without Glenn Hagel carrying its banner, it's still well within the realm of possibility that a few dozen spillover votes based on Shasko's profile in the city could be crucial.

Of course, the more important aftershock of Shasko's decision would come if she sets a precedent for Green supporters to work with Pedersen and other NDP candidates. But even if nobody else follows suit, Shasko may wind up having a profound impact on November's election.

On fixes

The Sask Party's refusal to agree with a consensus among all five of Saskatchewan's political parties (including its own members on the provincial Board of Internal Economy) has to raise serious questions as to whether the Wall government is holding out for its own Kenneth Blackwell. But Murray Mandryk nicely points out the other factors which figure to be at play:

By way of background, the post of Saskatchewan's chief electoral officer has been vacant for almost 18 months -- unusual for such a senior position. The government's explanation -- at least before Monday -- was that it's difficult finding a candidate with suitable electoral office experience and "managerial skills".

However, there has clearly been more to it than that. For one thing, sources said that applicants were being asked questions like where they stood on voters requiring photo identification. Coincidentally, voter ID just happens to benefit wealthier Sask. Party voters than poor voters who tend to support the NDP. There's also the issue of the electoral boundary changes after the next election and Justice Minister Don Morgan confirmed at the legislature Monday that government caucus members had special interest in both issues.

But even more interesting is the suggestion that a Sask. Party MLA or candidate is under investigation and government members were queasy about appointing the acting chief electoral officer, David Wilkie, who would have responsibility for bringing forward any such investigation.
...
Is a government MLA or Sask. Party candidate being investigated? It was a question Quennell asked in the House Monday.

Well, Morgan said after question period, he has no such knowledge. (However, he did strangely admit that his caucus members' only ability to independently assess the acting chief electoral officer's performance would be through whatever encounters they might have had with him on election expenses.)

Now, one can perhaps give the Sask Party points for gall in listing "experience" as its explanation for unilaterally rejecting a candidate who's actually doing the job in question (and has been for a year and a half). Indeed, from that starting point I'd fully expect their next line of messaging to be that they had to reject Wilkie in hopes that they could persuade their first choice, Wilkie, to take the job instead.

But however entertaining the spin may soon become, there's a serious issue when it comes to the question of who's going to be overseeing the next two Saskatchewan elections. And the worse the Sask Party's excuses for pushing any appointment past a point where it'll be too late to assemble consensus around any one candidate, the more reason for suspicion there will be that the Wall government is looking to rig the system in its favour.

Saskatchewan Party Cancelled Due to Lack of Interest

The Star-Phoenix editorial board is duly scathing about the Sask Party's complete lack of vision. But it's worth putting into perspective just how remarkable it is that the Sask Party's convention this weekend is apparently featuring a mere five resolutions in total - with the one which would actually represent the most significant policy change having been pre-shot-down for the convention's convenience.

By way of comparison, the 2009 Saskatchewan NDP convention dealt with 7 resolutions...from its Rainbow Pride Committee alone. Which is in addition to 4 from its Saskatoon Rivers constituency. And 4 more from its Saskatoon Eastview constituency. And another 4 from its Saskatoon Southeast constituency. And yet another 4 from SEIUWest.

And it isn't only NDP-friendly constituencies and groups who offered plenty of substantive policy proposals for discussion. The NDP lost by nearly 60 points in Cypress Hills, by 47 points in Estevan and by roughly 30 points in Cut Knife-Turtleford in 2007. Yet those three NDP riding associations between them provided more ideas for their party's consideration than the entire Saskatchewan Party can apparently muster.

In fact, the 2009 Saskatchewan NDP convention had four separate categories of resolution, each featuring at least seven separate resolutions which were then prioritized by panels to be considered by the plenary session. And that's before the party engages in a policy renewal process whose first public meetings featured dozens of suggestions for topic areas, to say nothing of the number of specific policy proposals likely to result.

Of course, there isn't another party in the province even close to matching that level of member interest. But it isn't just the NDP which seems to be able to muster some significant policy interest at its conventions.

Take the Greens, who passed five resolutions at their 2005 convention...on the issue of health care alone. And a cursory look at their issue pages signals that they tend to address 20+ resolutions at any given policy convention. Likewise, while the Libs don't seem to have much by way of convention documentation online, they and their much-derided turnout in 2009 managed to deal with a full statement of principles as well as at least one headline-grabbing policy last year.

All of which is to say that the Sask Party's nonexistent list of resolutions hints at the party being nothing more than an empty shell from a policy standpoint - even compared to the parties which can't even put together enough interest to win a single seat. And while Wall and company may hope they can raise enough corporate money to make up for the fact that the sum total of their members' ideas can be counted on one hand, it's hard to see how that balance can be sustainable for long.

Regina Coronation Park - From Green to Orange

Earlier this week, we got our first answer to the question of what type of candidate we can expect to challenge for the Saskatchewan NDP in ridings currently held by the Sask Party. But while it's great to see strong crops of familiar NDP faces pursuing nominations, there can't be much doubt that the NDP will need to bring in some new support from outside the party. And that makes the latest addition to the Regina Coronation Park nomination race a particularly interesting one.

Tory McGregor was elected deputy leader of the Saskatchewan Green Party in 2008, and subsequently ran for them in the Cumberland by-election won by the NDP's Doyle Vermette. But now, it appears that he's putting together a run at the NDP nomination in Regina Coronation Park - which contrary to some concerns during the NDP's leadership race actually makes one more relatively high-profile Green figure joining the NDP than has moved in the opposite direction.

We'll find out soon whether Tory is able to bring enough new faces with him to contend for a nomination against the three strong contenders already in the race. But either way, the NDP should be glad to have his voice in the mix - and hopefully he'll be just the first of many Greens who see the chance to create positive change from within the NDP.

Edit: fixed typo.

By-election aftermath

Obviously the most important result of last night's by-elections was the fact that both Saskatoon Riversdale and Regina Douglas Park stayed in NDP hands. But let's take a closer look at last night's results to see what they may mean for each of the parties involved.

For the NDP, the percentages are probably close to the best that could have been expected. With all parties focused entirely on the by-elections, the outcome figured to be closer than would normally be the case in a general election setting. And indeed the percentages narrowed far less in both of the ridings decided last night than in the 2008 Cumberland by-election - signalling that the NDP has managed to substantially improve its lock on traditional party turf compared to just a year ago.

That said, there seems to have been at least some disconnect between the NDP's expectations and the actual outcome. In Regina Douglas Park in particular, the Lingenfelter campaign spent much of the latter part of the campaign trumpeting record numbers of signs and identified votes. But those obviously didn't translate entirely into votes when it counted - and in fact the latter number actually exceeded the NDP's final tally at the polls.

So there are a couple of lessons to be taken from last night's results. First, the NDP needs to stay focused on the final result rather than taking too much pride in side projects like sign totals. And second, the voter identification process could probably use some tuning up - likely including both additional verification of identified supporters, and a stronger push to ensure that identified voters are kept involved throughout the campaign.

For the Sask Party, the by-elections served primarily as a test as to whether a combination of any remaining honeymoon period for the Wall government and a fairly negative air campaign against Dwain Lingenfelter could create enough of a head start to make up for the NDP's advantage in feet on the ground. And the answer there was a resounding "no", even with the Sask Party able to focus on only a single riding in each of Regina and Saskatoon.

But that doesn't mean the by-elections were a total waste for the Sask Party. Presumably the anti-Lingenfelter ads will serve Wall's purposes in framing the NDP for future elections even if it wasn't enough to put either of its candidates over the top this time out. And the absence of any meaningful Lib vote (by choice in Regina Douglas Park, but not in Saskatoon Riversdale) looks to have operated to the Sask Party's favour in both ridings, hinting at some changes in the dynamics likely to affect Saskatchewan's urban results in 2011.

To the extent any candidate could claim a stronger performance than expected, that honour would have to go to the Greens' Victor Lau in Regina Douglas Park, who increased his raw vote total from 2007 and nearly doubled his share of the vote. But even that result leaves Lau far from any serious contention for the seat - and it's doubtful that circumstances will get any better for the Greens in 2011, particularly if the nuclear question has been decided one way or the other by then. (Meanwhile, the Greens' campaign in Saskatoon Riversdale was a fairly thorough flop, as Tobi-Dawne Smith took a lower share of the vote than the previous Green candidate.)

Finally, there are the Liberals - or what's left of them. On paper, they seemed to have an opportunity to put themselves back on the political map in Saskatoon Riversdale: for their first by-election under a reasonably well-hyped leader, they managed to recruit a candidate who won over 34% of the vote in an adjacent riding under the Sask Party's banner in 2007. And of course most of the Libs' seeming strength should have been in Saskatoon, where former leader David Karwacki was the only Lib candidate to top 16% in a riding which featured a full slate of opponents.

But instead of building on any combination of her own history and any Lib machinery in Saskatoon, Eileen Gelowitz barely nosed ahead of Smith for a distant third place with 2.6% of the vote. And that complete absence of a party capable of assembling even a minimally successful campaign even under the most friendly of conditions would figure to make it next to impossible for the Libs to recruit similar candidates in the future.