Saskatchewan NDP Year in Review 2009: Pushback

As I discussed in an earlier post, the federal NDP's 2009 was marked by incremental progress toward a long-standing plan. In contrast, the year in Saskatchewan's NDP involved major decisions as to the party's direction. But while there are plenty of questions left to be answered over the next two years, we did see one key shift in Saskatchewan's political scene which will make tracing a path to government in 2011 far less problematic that it might otherwise have been.

Needless to say, the first six months of the year were dominated by the party's leadership race which culminated in Dwain Lingenfelter's second-ballot victory over Ryan Meili. What began as a seeming romp for Lingenfelter turned into a dramatic finish, as longtime stalwart Lingenfelter, faced with the membership sale controversy, was just barely able to hold off the combined efforts of a strong MLA competitor in Deb Higgins and two of the party's rising stars in Meili and Yens Pedersen.

But perhaps even more important than the candidates themselves was the range of supporters brought into the race - with Lingenfelter mixing plenty of new names and faces into a base of bedrock support dating back decades, while Meili and Pedersen put together new campaign teams which surprised many with their enthusiasm and effectiveness. Which leads to the question of how best to keep all of the key leadership race participants inside the NDP's tent and engaged in the party leading up to 2011.

So far, the best prospect for continued renewal looks to be a policy development process which Lingenfelter is rightly playing up as setting the NDP's direction for some time to come. There's some obvious room for improvement in the amount of public discussion about the process so far, but once consultations begin in earnest there will be a golden opportunity not only to set the NDP's policy direction, but also to build up a new set of NDP voices for the future to join Meili, Pedersen and newly-elected MLA Danielle Chartier. The latter goal may require some concerted effort to place a focus on the grassroots rather than the current leader or caucus, but such an effort would figure to be well rewarded in the end.

Meanwhile, Lingenfelter's main appeal as a leader always figured to be his ability to turn the tables on a government which had emerged almost entirely unscathed from its first two years in office (thanks to fawning media coverage as well as a lack of consistent NDP messages to define him). And with an assist to the NDP's prescient warnings about overreliance on potash revenues, the first half-year of Lingenfelter's leadership has undoubtedly seen the end of any free ride for Brad Wall.

Mind you, the concern hasn't yet filtered down to as much of the general public as one would like to see (nor up to the national media). But commentary on Saskatchewan politics in the latter half of the year rightly focused largely on the Sask Party's mismanagement in 2009 and difficult decisions to be made in 2010. And with cities, school boards and others who will be affected by cuts to anticipated funding starting to speak out, it doesn't figure to take long before Wall's habit of promising the moon sets up a significant opening for a government which is better grounded in reality.

It does remain to be seen exactly what alternative vision the Saskatchewan NDP will put forward in 2010 and beyond. But the combination of NDP renewal and Sask Party tarnish should significantly narrow any gap in the polls just in time for it to matter - meaning that whatever the NDP comes up with in its policy process should have a significant chance of setting the province's agenda within the next two years.

Looking backwards

The Saskatchewan NDP has rightly been pointing out Dwain Lingenfelter's goals for party development from the party's response to the Wall government's throne speech. But there's another part of the NDP's reply which looks to deserve more attention than it's received so far. Here's Deb Higgins:

I got a copy of the Speech from the Throne when I was leaving the legislature yesterday, sat down with a highlighter, and I went through and marked what were former initiatives that they were again highlighting — not over just last year but over the previous two years — and my final count came to 53 old initiatives that were highlighted again in the Speech from the Throne. And I was being generous, Mr. Speaker, in what I considered a new initiative, and I think there's around 15. Now I counted some of them that I have heard being announced before, but I thought, well I'll be generous; maybe there is more to come as we get into session and we start looking at this.

So when I look at the front and the cover of the speech and it was titled “Moving Forward,” it's pretty hard to move forward when you're spending so many pages in your vision for the future looking back and patting yourself on the back.

Of course the few new parts of the throne speech - coupled with Brad Wall's distraction tactics - have largely managed to throw the media off the scent so far. But when Wall has reached the point after just two years in government where he needs to spend over three quarters of his time looking back rather than being able to suggest anything new, there's reason to suspect that the Sask Party will be completely out of gas by the time the next election rolls around.

On final tallies

James Wood reports on the final financial results from Saskatchewan's NDP leadership race. And if there's any major surprise, it's that the candidate fund-raising totals ended up substantially matching the result of the first ballot: despite a publicly-disclosed total nearly $12,000 behind Deb Higgins just days before the June convention, Yens Pedersen apparently managed to eke ahead of her in the financial department as well.

Now, it's not clear whether part of the new totals reflect some surprisingly effective fund-raising after the vote itself, or whether they mean that Pedersen's small-donor income during the leadership campaign dwarfed his disclosed donations. But either way, the example is one which candidates in future leadership campaigns and other races would do well to follow.

Uneconomical

Following up on this morning's post, the Saskatchewan NDP is also raising questions about what the price quotes from Ontario's plan to build new reactors mean for the Sask Party's efforts to strongarm Saskatchewan into nuclear power, noting that even Bruce Power's low-balled cost estimates exceed the point where Ontario concluded that nuclear power isn't worth the price:

The Ontario Energy Board has indicated that any price higher than $3,600 per kilowatt of power capacity would be uneconomical when costed against alternatives such as natural gas and renewable energy options. Bruce Power has indicated its intention to build two 1,000 megawatt reactors in Saskatchewan at a cost of between $8 and $10 billion. Using Bruce Power’s conservative price estimate, its proposal works out to approximately $4,000 per kilowatt – a price that exceeds the Ontario Energy Board’s economical cutoff.

“When the evidence against the economics of a project of this size begins to mount so dramatically, we need to wonder whether indeed we are being told the whole story,” Higgins said. “Clearly there is an increasingly strong case to be made for research into natural gas and other alternative energy options if the cost of nuclear really is this much.”
...
“How is it that Bruce Power is able to build a similar reactor here that costs so much less than the proposals submitted to the Ontario government? Where exactly are the hidden costs?” Higgins asked. “Have we just been given the cost of the reactor without the plant? Like everything about this process from day one, the government has failed to answer some extremely important questions.”

Now, it still seems to me more likely that the biggest difference between the costs discussed in Bruce Power's study (which describes the cost as that of a "nuclear facility") and the prices now faced by Ontario involve the allocation of risk rather than the scope of the work included.

But either way, there's plenty of reason for concern that the numbers driving the Sask Party's support for nuclear are both high enough to make nuclear development a bad idea in the first place, and unrealistically low when compared to the actual cost of nuclear construction. And Higgins is entirely right in saying that fact should be driving the province to look toward alternatives rather than courting nuclear as its top priority.

On reunification

CBC reports that Dwain Lingenfelter has started to put his stamp on the Saskatchewan NDP caucus with a shuffle of critic duties. And all indications that leadership race loyalties have been put behind the party in determining who will play leading roles going forward:

Dwain Lingenfelter, the new leader of Saskatchewan's NDP, has selected Deb Higgins, one of his opponents in the party's leadership race, to take on the duties of second-in-command at the legislature.

Lingenfelter made the announcement Monday as he unveiled a slightly rejigged roster of critic duties for members of the Opposition. He was chosen as leader June 6.

In addition to serving as deputy leader, Higgins maintained her responsibilities as Opposition critic for municipal affairs.
...
Lingenfelter said he will serve as the party's critic on agriculture matters. He has said he will seek a seat in the legislature when a byelection is held for the soon-to-be vacant seat of Regina Douglas Park.

In the meantime, Lingenfelter has tapped Len Taylor to act as interim Opposition leader.

Particularly in a caucus where Lingenfelter proudly boasted the support of a majority of members, it's a pleasant surprise that the top two positions within the NDP caucus for the moment were given to an MLA who (to my recollection) stayed unaligned, along with Lingenfelter's lone caucus leadership opponent. And while there's still plenty of work to be done in bringing the party together on the policy front, today's announcement looks to signal that Lingenfelter is off to a good start in bridging the gaps that appeared during the leadership race.

As long as we're following up...

Having looked today at what's been done at the official Saskatchewan NDP website since the leadership race, let's take a quick run as well through the sites of the candidates other than Dwain Lingenfelter (whose leadership site now features a thank-you for the campaign).

Not surprisingly, the site which drew the most attention during the leadership contest has been the active one since the convention. While Ryan Meili's front page hasn't changed, his news page has continued to be updated with both a press release and news articles featuring Meili. And that hasn't been Meili's only continued online presence: in fact his Facebook group - which features additional updates - has continued to grow since the campaign, having now reached 525 members.

Meanwhile, Deb Higgins has updated her front page with a message of thanks for the campaign. That leaves Yens Pedersen as the only candidate whose page is still the same as it was before the convention - but hopefully Yens' page, like those of the other candidates, will soon serve to support a run in 2011 or sooner.

Leadership 2009 - Deb Higgins Afterword

Let's run through the leadership candidates one more time at the end of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race to look at how (if at all) their position in the party looks to have changed coming out of this weekend's convention and what figures to come next - starting from the bottom of the vote standings and working our way up.

In some ways, the leadership race will likely be seen as somewhat of a disappointment for Deb Higgins, as she went from a strong second in name recognition to fourth in the leadership results. But it's worth putting those results in context compared to the last leadership race.

In 2001, Joanne Crofford and Buckley Belanger both ran as experienced cabinet members who likely figured that their prominent positions within the party would bring in a decent number of votes. But in a race with over twice as many ballots cast, the two barely won more first-ballot votes than Higgins alone managed this past weekend. And in percentage terms, Higgins' 14% first-ballot support was just below the 14.5% first-ballot vote of Crofford, Belanger and fellow cabinet minister Maynard Sonntag combined.

Of course, this year's race featured different dynamics - which resulted in Higgins dropping off after the first ballot, rather than getting to try to pick up support for another round (or two as Sonntag could have done if he hadn't chosen to withdraw). But while Higgins and her supporters may have hoped for more, she can certainly take credit for a respectable result in the vote totals to go with a solid performance as a candidate.

The question for Higgins is now whether the campaign will have much impact on her place within the party. If the Lingenfelter camp wants to hold grudges, it can certainly find some of Higgins' comments to hold against her - but for now I'll operate under the assumption that they're not about to go in that direction. Conversely, while somebody looking for reasons to promote Higgins within the party could probably find them in the leadership race (such as the fact that she managed to take what was already a well-developed constituency and earn the "most improved" title at the convention), she doesn't seem to have carried much public momentum out of the campaign.

Which means that Higgins will likely finish the leadership campaign exactly where she started it: as a well-respected MLA who figures to hold down a mid-ranking cabinet position in any NDP government she sits in, but likely won't be one of the main faces of the party. And while that may fall well short of her supporters' hope to make her the first female NDP leader and Saskatchewan premier, hopefully her work will help to ease the way for the woman who eventually blazes that trail.

On wrong turns

For the past couple of months, my discussion of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race has featured charts with my guesses as to the outcome - the last of which can be found here. In the absence of detailed polling data or other information providing a direct indication of voter intention, I've tried my best to make predictions based on the factors that seemed to me to be at play. But in retrospect, there are a couple of areas where my assumptions were apparently off the mark - and I'll take a few minutes to point those out.

The first and most obvious is my relative treatment of the candidacies of Yens Pedersen and Deb Higgins. In Pedersen's case, I underestimated the strength of his campaign, focusing too much his comparative lack of public endorsements when there were probably signs of solid organization that could have been given more weight, particularly the logic underlying his phone poll process.

In Higgins' case, I likely did just the opposite, overemphasizing her positive moments due to her endorsement base and giving plenty of weight to media narratives which in retrospect were likely based more on her name recognition than on anything happening during the course of the campaign. And the result was my regular ranking of Pedersen as far more likely to finish last than Higgins (contrary to the final results this weekend). So my apologies to Yens for missing the relative strength of his campaign - and hopefully he can take some small moral victory in having proven one self-appointed pundit wrong.

The second broad area has to do with the relative likelihood of a first-ballot win for Dwain Lingenfelter and his prospects for victory later on. In retrospect my analysis wasn't far from the mark in placing the two most likely results as a Lingenfelter first-ballot victory or a final-ballot showdown again Meili, with little to choose between the relative likelihood of the two. But I likely didn't account enough for the chances that a Lingenfelter first-ballot lead would get him within a small number of votes of the 50% mark such as to make a later-ballot win difficult for his competitors as proved to be the case.

I'll leave the personal navel-gazing at that for now, and hopefully learn a few lessons to be applied to future analysis. But thanks to all who have taken the time to read my off-the-cuff predictions - and I'll try to be closer to the mark next time.

On potential energy

After months of a campaign involving serious discussions of policy and principle among four well-qualified candidates, the leadership race took a turn for the surreal at the end.

While Ryan Meili's campaign spent the voting interval on the second ballot marshalling every available troop to try to call potential voters to narrow a gap which proved too large to overcome, Dwain Lingenfelter's supporters started setting up their victory rally in the main hall. But within seconds of the Lingenfelter crowd to the right of the stage starting a "Link" chant in support of their candidate, a throng of Meili supporters (including plenty of new arrivals from the Higgins and Pedersen camps) soon assembled to the left with a "Meili" counter chant - which in turn gave way to an "NDP" chant bringing both sides together. One or more of those three messages echoed through the room until the results were announced...along with a tongue-in-cheek "Wallace" chant to beckon for the auditor responsible to announce the final numbers.

The contrast in the types of messages which managed to emerge from the crowds may ultimately serve as a perfect metaphor for the final result of the leadership race. The Saskatchewan NDP isn't lacking for members who are not only willing to show their enthusiasm, but eager to join forces toward the right end. But the NDP needs to figure out a common refrain that will actually unite its members - and any effort which fails to take into account all sides of the party figures to face vociferous opposition from within.

So what positives can we take from the convention so far? The good news today isn't limited to Lingenfelter and his supporters - though they're surely breathing a sigh of relief. Even for those who have been skeptical about Dwain Lingenfelter's run for the leadership, today's result should do about as much as can be done to confirm the fact that Lingenfelter can't afford to ignore the left side of the NDP.

Remember that it was just last year that the NDP faced a real fear that Lingenfelter's ascent to the leadership was a foregone coronation and that nobody would even bother seriously challenging him. From that starting point, many members would likely have been thrilled with the prospect that Lingenfelter would instead win a close second-ballot victory against a well-organized opponent. And if the actual result is still somewhat of a disappointment when something even better seemed well within reach, that's a positive sign as to how far the progressive faction within the NDP has come - as well as a hint that Lingenfelter would be well-advised to recognize and tap into the energy of his leadership opponents.

But then, the importance of working together and leaving nothing to chance should be no less clear to supporters of Meili, Pedersen and Higgins. After all, as strong as their show of common purpose was by the time of the second ballot, Lingenfelter would have swept to a first-ballot victory if any one of the three has been just slightly less successful in winning votes. And there's surely some theoretical possibility that it was within the grasp of the candidates to come up with the extra votes which would have been needed to push Meili ahead.

That goes doubly in the wake of what has to be seen as a disappointing level of voter turnout. Just yesterday, Murray Mandryk was commenting on the need to take into account the possibility that "while a spectacularly high number of eligible New Democrats will vote, it might not be unreasonable to suggest a five- to eight-per-cent 'no-show' rate." Instead, over 3,600 eligible members failed to vote at all, making for a no-show rate of over 27% - meaning that there were plenty of votes theoretically left unharvested which might have changed the results in any number of ways.

In the wake of a close vote which could so easily have gone differently, Lingenfelter now faces a double challenge. The first step is to make sure that everybody who attended the convention and showed their eagerness to be involved is inspired to keep doing the same - making sure to build a party that keeps convention attendees proudly chanting "NDP" rather than breaking down into internal factions. But the more important work is ultimately to start building a similar degree of enthusiasm among disaffected potential and current NDP members.

It remains to be seen how much Lingenfelter can accomplish on that front - and his continued focus on "winning" over questions of what the party actually hopes to accomplish in power signals that he has work to do in shaping his own message to the tasks. But it's Lingenfelter's success or failure in those areas that ultimately figure to define his leadership and determine the NDP's fate in 2011 - and there's every reason for him to want to start immediately in harnessing some of the obvious potential for renewal.

(Edit: fixed wording.)

Leadership 2009 - Final Prediction Chart

I'll close out the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign with one more purely guesswork-based chart as to the likely outcomes tomorrow. But first, let's note a few factors resulting in changes since last week's numbers.

First, the past week has seen a fairly consistent narrative developing around Deb Higgins as a "compromise candidate". It still looks like she's behind Ryan Meili in the race for second, but that kind of message along with a strong showing in tomorrow's speech could both push fence-sitters into her camp and turn some additional second-choice support her way - helping Higgins to regain some of the ground which she'd seemed to lose while staying silent earlier in the campaign.

Second, there's the Lingenfelter campaign's disclosure of its percentage of votes in the bank, coupled with a conspicuous non-disclosure about the raw totals. Again, that figures to offer at least some hint that Lingenfelter's campaign no longer considers itself to have a particularly safe lead.

Finally, today's convention was noteworthy in the apparent parity among the candidates. On the organizational front, Lingenfelter and Meili still looked to be at the head of the pack in terms of making material and information availabile to interested members. But in terms of identified supporters there was a remarkable degree of parity among the delegates, with Higgins in particular having more buttons around than I'd expected and Lingenfelter noticeably lacking for a substantial lead over his competitors.

Which means that for the first time in a few weeks, the gap between Lingenfelter and his competitors looks to have narrowed rather than widened. And that should make for a fascinating day of voting and results tomorrow.

With all that in mind, here's the final estimate as to the possible outcomes:

Candidate	1st Ballot Win	Final Ballot	Final Ballot Win	4th on 1st	Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter	43 (46)	43 (39)	10 (10)	0 (0)	53 (56)
Ryan Meili	2 (4)	37 (35)	25 (23)	3 (3)	27 (27)
Deb Higgins	0 (0)	25 (21)	18 (15)	5 (6)	18 (15)
Yens Pedersen	0 (0)	5 (5)	2 (2)	47 (41)	2 (2)

On sociability

Not surprisingly, all four Saskatchewan NDP leadership candidates are having social events tonight in advance of tomorrow's vote. Whether by coincidence or planning, Deb Higgins, Ryan Meili and Yens Pedersen will all have their socials in different rooms at the Regina Inn, while Dwain Lingenfelter's will be held at the Hotel Saskatchewan ballroom. So for those looking to see the candidates and the rest of the party in less formal settings before the vote, tonight (starting at 8 for Lingenfelter and 7 for the other candidates) is your chance.

Leadership 2009 Links

A couple more links worth pointing out on the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race and related issues...

First, Stephen Larose theorizes that the Sask Party's cabinet shuffle reflects an attempt to get more partisan members into battle in preparation for a Lingenfelter win:

Probably the best way to look at Brad Wall’s recent cabinet shuffle (Government of Saskatchewan) is to put it in context of the NDP leadership race. Wall thinks (correctly,) that Dwain Lingenfelter is going to win in a walk, so Wall prepared a wartime cabinet.

That’s the main reason why Wall has removed three people (Sask. Party website) who (for Sask. Party politicians, anyway) were doing not that bad a job, and replaced them with three hard-core ideologues (Sask Party website). Wall is expecting that the next months in the Legislature will resemble trench warfare in the First World War – massive expenditures of manpower, time, money and effort for little or no gain.

Then again, I’m sure Wall would rather see Link as NDP leader than anybody else, for the same reason why the Pentagon would rather fight a conventional war than a war of counter-insurgency. It’s what they know; it’s what they think they’re good at.

It's definitely an interesting theory, though there might be similar logic at play no matter who wins the leadership race. With the main question over the next year-plus figuring to be how the NDP leader gets branded going into the next provincial election, Wall may well have figured he's better off promoting Yogi Huyghebaert to shriek about an impending red menace than putting somebody more reasonable in front of the cameras.

But if so, that would make for a sad commentary on Wall's view of government. And if the political scene is indeed headed to a war footing, one consequence figures to be an end to the undeserved free pass Wall has received from the media so far during his term in office.

Meanwhile, the Southwest News picks up on one noteworthy comment from Deb Higgins:

Saskatchewan NDP Leadership candidate, Deb Higgins attended Wednesday's meeting in Swift Current and hopes a referendum is held on the Nuclear issue. Higgins states the future of Uranium in Saskatchewan is a crucial issue and cannot be decided over a 10 week period alone.

Of course, I'd have to agree with the latter point. But as with Ryan Meili's call for a redesigned consultation process, any demand for a referendum which essentially legitimizes a debate where nuclear generation is placed ahead of all other options figures to make for a more difficult position to defend than a consistent message that nuclear power doesn't deserve the focus in the first place.

Leadership 2009 - Policy Review Wrapup

Let's close off my series of posts on the policies put forward by the Saskatchewan NDP leadership candidates with an overall look at the candidates' scores:

Ryan Meili - 40/50
Yens Pedersen - 37/50
Dwain Lingenfelter - 36/50
Deb Higgins - 35/50

As noted in my posts about each individual candidates, the scores tend to reflect a divide between Meili and Pedersen who put together ambitious and complete platforms, and Lingenfelter and Higgins who played it safer with limited proposals. Meili then ranks ahead of the pack through third-party validation and a judicious choice of policies which minimize the problems which would normally arise in a more detailed platform.

But the most important message in looking at the platforms is found less in the candidate ranking than in the reality that the candidates each brought different strengths to the table in making their policy choices. And that should serve as a reminder that in order to put together the best possible platform for the NDP as a whole in 2011, all of the candidates should be eager to listen to each other and to the membership as a whole.

Pulling the vote

James Wood updates the voting numbers for the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race. And it'll be interesting to see the effect of what looks to be a highly successful effort to get members to vote early.

By way of comparison, in the Ontario NDP leadership race earlier this year, just under 47% of eligible voters made their choice in advance. In contrast, the Saskatchewan NDP's race has far exceeded that total even with two more days of advance voting to go:

As of Wednesday, 54 per cent of about 13,000 eligible voters had cast preferential ballots through the mail, telephone or Internet in advance polling.
...
Lingenfelter, like the other candidates, said he is spending his time working the phones in an effort to get members to cast their votes in advance.

While he's taking nothing for granted, he expressed confidence, noting about 60 per cent of his campaign's identified supporters have already voted.

So how does that number of advance voters affect the campaigns? The article notes that a large amount of advance voting could work to the advantage of Dwain Lingenfelter's campaign in light of his front-runner status, as it reduces the chances of any other candidate building momentum at the convention itself. And on the the surface, Lingenfelter's statement that his campaign has already turned out 60 per cent of its vote would seem to further favour him.

But given that at least some portion of the party would figure to remain undecided until the convention or decline to identify their support, it would seem likely that each of the campaigns are somewhere near the same level in terms of percentages. Which makes the more important question the size of the pool of identified support that each could claim to begin with.

And it's striking that Lingenfelter was silent on that point. Remember that he was less than shy about stating how many new members his campaign had signed up. And at the time, the number seemed to signal that Lingenfelter would enjoy a strong chance at a first-ballot victory.

Of course, there are some reasons why Lingenfelter wouldn't want to show his hand at this point even if he's still operating under the assumption that he's banked all the votes that he needs, including possible embarrassment if his numbers proved to be wrong as well as the desire to keep public attention directed toward the race. But it sounds like Lingenfelter should in theory have an excellent idea as to whether or not he's in fact headed toward the first-ballot romp which he once expected. And that will make his camp's strategy very much worth watching over the next couple of days.

On final numbers

The Saskatchewan NDP has released what will apparently be the last fund-raising disclosures (warning: PDF) from its leadership race. And while the raw numbers haven't moved far since the previous list on May 20, there are a few developments worth noting.

Yens Pedersen's new donations came in just behind Deb Higgins with a total amount of $1,250. But there are a couple of noteworthy donors on the list: Knight Archer Insurance at $500 as the first corporate donation to Pedersen's campaign (non-legal division), and Jim Robbins and Nettie Wiebe at $250.

Higgins took in a total of $1,300, but in only two additional donations. Which means that in terms of total disclosed donors for the campaign, her lead over Pedersen narrowed to 15-13. (Lingenfelter finishes with 63, Meili with 29.)

Dwain Lingenfelter brought in three new donations totalling $3,000. Of note is that two of the three new donors (Jim Scharfstein and Robert Gibbings) are named partners in the law firm of Scharfstein Gibbings Walen Fisher.

Finally, Ryan Meili brought in nine new listed donations totalling $3,020. Included in that amount are four $340 donations which seem to have been targeted toward the money bomb - which of course raised about four times as much as the amount listed in reportable donations during the reporting period.

Leadership 2009 - Deb Higgins Policy Review

Finishing off the policy review series, let's take a look at how Deb Higgins' platform compares to those of her competitors in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race.

Thoroughness - 7/10

On the surface, the broad topics in Higgins' online platform would seem to cover significantly more ground than Dwain Lingenfelter's - if still missing a few obvious concerns like education of health care. But the subject areas included in Higgins' official platform are dealt with somewhat inconsistently: some (such as environment) are addressed with a fairly long list of proposals, while at least a couple still tell readers to "come back for updates". Which means that anybody who didn't hang onto the Commonwealth may have trouble finding out what Higgins has to say on some of the more important issues which figure to be dealt with during the leadership race.

Consistency - 8/10

One of the advantages of a fairly modest set of proposals like Higgins' is that it doesn't tend to lead to major inconsistencies. But that tends to lead to problems in other areas, such as...

Creativity - 5/10

As I've noted before, Higgins' platform consists almost entirely either incremental changes to existing programs, the implementation of previous Saskatchewan reports or policies modeled on plans which already exist elsewhere in Canada.

Support - 7/10

Yet even with ample opportunity to rely on outside sources in support of her policies, Higgins doesn't offer much by way of explanation for her policies. Both her website and her Commonwealth responses tend to include a brief paragraph or two providing an extremely high-level look at the subjects involved, but little beyond that to explain Higgins' policies.

Pragmatism - 8/10

Of course, the lack of a strong explanation may be mitigated by the fact that Higgins' policies are generally non-controversial. Noteworthy exceptions may include a "triple-bottom-line" assessment process for major developments and indexation of the minimum wage above the poverty line - but even in those cases the policies would seem to have at most incremental effects on their opponents, and there would be obvious constituencies in favour as well to help ease the policies' passage.

The Big Idea

Higgins' first major announcement of the campaign was her campaign finance reform package which would prohibit donations from out of province, set limits on donations from Saskatchewan individuals and organizations, and provide for a public subsidy to political parties based on their total votes received. And while the proposal has been echoed in full by Meili and in part by Pedersen, it still stands out as Higgins' most significant contribution both to the race, and hopefully to the political scene at large at the end of the race.

Of course, that may depend in large part on the NDP's own fund-raising strategy coming out of this weekend's convention: if Lingenfelter emerges victorious and figures that his Alberta connections can rival the Sask Party's, then it's unlikely that the plan will go any further. But I'd argue that whoever wins the race would be best off adopting the policy - both in order to create a strong issue to wield against the Wall government, and in the interest of better connecting political parties with voters than with their financial backers as a matter of principle.

On united efforts

Meanwhile, James Wood reports on the theory that the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race might lead to divisions within the party. But try as Wood might to make a story out of supposed dissension, the leadership candidates themselves are sending exactly the right signals:

But his absence from provincial politics to work in Alberta and his support in the past for nuclear power development had already made him a polarizing figure for some New Democrats before the membership storm broke.

Lingenfelter said in the final days of a tough leadership race, there is "a sense this thing can never be brought back together," but he pointed to the Obama-Clinton battle for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination as proof even the deepest cuts can be mended.

"After a couple of weeks, everybody got back together and did what they had to do to beat the Republicans and I just know that's what's going to happen in this campaign regardless of who wins," said Lingenfelter, who noted the first job of any new leader involves reaching out to those party members who didn't support him or her.

Meili, a political newcomer who has likely been the biggest surprise in the race -- both he and Lingenfelter peg him at second place on the convention's first ballot -- echoed Lingenfelter's comments about the party coming together while at the same time getting in a swipe at the former deputy premier.

"Honestly, there will be work to be done. I do feel that unless we make a clear break from that sort of political practice and unless we are putting forward a really positive, ideas-based, inspiring platform, it will be very hard to unify the party. However, I think that's what we're going to do. I think I've got a very good chance of being the leader. I think whoever the leader is, the NDP will come together around that leader because we have to," he said.

Ironically, Pedersen, who has been most publicly at odds with Lingenfelter, downplayed the significance of bad blood in the leadership race.

Pedersen, who describes himself as a "democratic socialist," said splits in the party are nothing new and there are bigger issues to deal with.

"I don't think it's a choice of values or age or anything like that . . . I think what it is, it's a choice of direction and this party has to decide whether we're going to be a party of small-l liberals or whether we're going to be a democratic socialist party. To me, that's the big division or big question of principle and direction underscoring this race."

A couple of other points from Wood's article are also worth highlighting. Like Wheatsheaf, Wood takes a look at the theory that Deb Higgins might come out of the race as a compromise choice. But it's hard to see that as a likely outcome if Meili is indeed in second place - and the acknowledgment from Lingenfelter's camp to that effect would seem to offer a fairly strong hint as to how the candidates are currently positioned.

Finally, the report that 44 per cent of the 13,000 total possible votes are already in might serve to make any developments this week far less significant than they might be otherwise: there may not be many people left to vote based on what happens at the convention. I'd be particularly interested to see if there's any breakdown as to what format members have used for their votes, but we'll find out before long whether the heavy early voting favours any one candidate.

Leadership 2009 Links

With the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race coming down to the wire, we're noew seeing more commentary on the contest than there had been for a long time. So here are a couple of the more interesting recent reads...

Buckdog sees the race as mostly one involving a split mostly along generational lines rather than ideological ones. I'd argue that there are a few important splits at play: within the older-generation candidates there's a clear ideological split between Higgins on the left and Lingenfelter on the right, while among the younger candidates there's a split in style between Pedersen as the brash populist champion and Meili as the persuader who's managed to win a substantial chunk of the party's establishment to his side.

From that starting point, the biggest question mark on any later ballot is that of how Higgins' supporters will use their second-choice support. As I've noted before, Meili's and Pedersen's supporters would seem highly likely to support the other young candidate next, followed by Higgins over Lingenfelter. But there's a significant quesetion as to whether Higgins' supporters will vote based on generational lines or on ideological fit - and that could be the decisive factor if the race comes down to a Lingenfelter/Meili or Lingenfelter/Pedersen final ballot.

Meanwhile, Wheatsheaf also offers up some interesting perspectives on the race. While I'd have some questions about the candidate comparisons (Lingenfelter seems to me a better comparison to Paul Martin than to Michael Ignatieff, and Meili seems to have far more of an urban/professional base than Nettie Wiebe), perhaps the most noteworthy characterization is that of Higgins as the "happy middle" - which is surely exactly the narrative she'll need to consolidate support at the convention if she has enough early-ballot support to stay in the race.

Finally, for those who haven't yet read Jason's blog, his series of 10 reasons for voting for Ryan Meili is definitely worth a look (along with his other coverage of the race).

Leadership 2009 Week in Review - May 31

Another week of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race has passed without any major changes in the candidates' directions. Dwain Lingenfelter's campaign continues to cruise despite some public questions, Ryan Meili has added to his existing support base with some creative outreach efforts, Deb Higgins has stayed off the radar and Yens Pedersen has kept working largely behind the scenes to build support.

Like last week, more of the same figures to work mostly to the advantage of the front-runner. But there are a couple of other shifts in the numbers below (which again are based purely on my guesswork rather than any statistical analysis).

First, the Meili campaign's public push combined with Higgins' lack of much obvious presence would seem likely to position Meili as the magnet for early-ballot support to counter Lingenfelter. That not only puts him in a stronger position in his chances of sticking around to a final ballot against Lingenfelter, but may increase the (still extremely long) odds that he can move into first-ballot territory if Lingenfelter proves to have been damaged more than seems to be the case.

At the same time, though, an early fall from the race for Higgins would also release the pool most likely to have Lingenfelter as a second choice earlier in the voting process than might happen otherwise. Which results in a slight boost to Lingenfelter's chances of coming away with a victory on a later ballot.

With that in mind, then, here's this week's chart:

Candidate	1st Ballot Win	Final Ballot	Final Ballot Win	4th on 1st	Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter	46 (44)	39 (42)	10 (9)	0 (0)	56 (53)
Ryan Meili	4 (2)	35 (36)	23 (24)	3 (4)	27 (26)
Deb Higgins	0 (0)	21 (25)	15 (19)	6 (4)	15 (19)
Yens Pedersen	0 (0)	5 (5)	2 (2)	41 (46)	2 (2)

Leadership 2009 - Policy Reviews

The four Saskatchewan NDP leadership contenders have handled the question of policy in different ways throughout the race, ranging from Yens Pedersen's early platform rollout to Ryan Meili's gradual unveiling of policies to the more scattershot approaches from Deb Higgins and Dwain Lingenfelter. But less than a week before the vote, it seems fairly safe to say there won't be too much yet to come on the policy front. So now would seem to be an ideal time to take an overall look at each of the candidates' policy proposals.

Before jumping into a candidate-by-candidate review, though, I'll use this post to set out the criteria which look to me to define how a candidate has handled policy questions:

- Thoroughness - has the candidate covered most or all of the public policy areas which members are likely to want to see addressedby a leadership candidate?

- Consistency - is the platform internally consistent, or do the principles underlying some policies conflict significantly with those supporting others?

- Creativity - how much of the platform reflects new additions to the Saskatchewan political scene compared to what's been discussed over the past few years?

- Support - how well does the candidate support the policies within the platform, whether through research, argument or third-party validation?

- Pragmatism - how likely is the platform to be successfully implemented, based on both the public demand which can be mustered in support and the likely degree of resistance?

Note that while I'll be referring to a "platform", I won't be looking only at the policy contents of the candidates' websites. Instead, I'll be incorporating proposals and arguments made in the Commonwealth, in candidate media conferences, and anywhere else that seems to me to shed light on the policy work that's been done during the campaign.

In addition to reviewing the platforms in general based on these principles, I'll also highlight one "big idea" from each candidate which seems to me to reflect their policy choices. So, stay tuned - as while the race may be nearing a close, there's still plenty left to discuss before NDP members cast their final ballots on Saturday.