Following up on yesterday's post, the NDP's decision to advance a non-confidence vote obviously reflects a different path than the one which seemed promising to me. And there's at least one explanation as to why there may be an interest in an election sooner rather than later:
From the standpoint of merely managing party interests in Parliament, that type of data would create a strong incentive for an early election - particularly if the main alternative is trying to negotiate with a leader whose ability to give effect to any agreement is in doubt.Speaking with sources within the NDP. There is a noticeable shift in the parties attitude towards and election. They WANT an election against Trudeau. I have been told there is data coming showing them in a steady 2nd place against Poilievre with a shorter than expected ground to reclaim.
— JB (@jb.polaris.tube) December 20, 2024 at 12:43 PM
But I'm still not convinced there isn't a better third option which could pair a relatively strong party position with a concerted effort to tap into public resistance to an American oligarchy which seems likely to overwhelm domestic discussions in any election campaign.
Meanwhile, it's also worth noting the timing involved. Just as now isn't a time when there's a realistic prospect of negotiating legislation, it's also too late for any non-confidence vote to take place for at least a period of months. And there's risk in assuming that both of the conditions seen as favouring an election now (the assumption of polling momentum and Justin Trudeau's continued leadership of the Libs) will still be in place by the time there's any chance to act on today's declaration.
The NDP has no chance in Quebec, Jagmeet is no 'bon Jack'.
ReplyDeleteElsewhere, a stronger NDP mostly elects CONs.
Looking bleak.
OTOH, a timely prorogation (Harper/Jean set the precedent), a few months of tRump in power and a new Lib leader could change the dynamics and perhaps voters will come to know the real Lil'PP in the heat of a campaign.
I'm old enough to remember when the conventional wisdom was that "le bon Jack" was no Ed Broadbent, and that he should step down lest the NDP get wiped out in 2011. (That said, I do think there's reason for concern that Jagmeet hasn't yet established the distinctive persona he needs to stand out from the pack of federal leaders - and that's where "political leader of the anti-Trump resistance" seems like a role worth taking on both as a matter of principle and one of strategy.)
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