Sunday, September 03, 2017

Leadership 2017 Candidate Rankings - September 3

The major development since last week has of course been the release of the NDP's national membership numbers. And as would have been expected, they lead to a change at the top - though it's worth putting their impact into perspective rather than taking every sign-up as an automatic vote.

1. Jagmeet Singh (2)

While Singh's claim to have signed up 47,000 members has given rise to some controversy, much of the issue seems to come from some confusion as to who's included in that number. In particular, it's highly likely that a substantial number of Singh's counted memberships consisted of renewals rather than first-time supporters - which couldn't necessarily be seen as separate from the pools of voters who have already been polled as known members.

But while those voters might not be as solidly in Singh's camp as people signing up for the express purpose of supporting him, it's still noteworthy that a candidate who got off to a late start seems to have managed to perform that strongly even in the renewal category where some low-hanging fruit would have been available to candidates starting early. And a campaign apparatus capable of achieving that looks to be at a huge advantage in maintaining and converting support once the voting window opens.

2. Charlie Angus (1)

Meanwhile, Angus' drop is due solely to Singh's strong showing in the membership numbers. But if Angus now looks likely to be substantially behind Singh on the first ballot, he'll have some work to do in establishing himself as the preferred final-ballot choice for supporters of the remaining candidates.

3. Guy Caron (3)

Caron holds his position thanks to another strong week in terms of both endorsements, and setting the terms of the campaign debate. But there still looks to be a long way for him to go in trying to reach a final ballot - and while Caron's position on Quebec's Bill 62 may have succeeded in attracting some positive attention, it will also offer a strong basis for contrast if he is one of the last two candidates standing.

4. Niki Ashton (4)

Finally, Ashton also stays in place in the absence of any significant change from the previous week. But as noted here, she may have an opportunity to demonstrate that her movement-building strategy has progressed further than might be obvious from the leadership campaign so far.

No comments:

Post a Comment