Leadership 2017: The Quebec Question

Don MacPherson has joined the many commentators whose main take on the federal NDP's leadership race is to zero in on how Quebec voters might react to Jagmeet Singh's Sikh background and head covering. And Adam Radwanski has rightly challenged the pundits' consensus to some extent.

But (as noted in part by Ian Capstick) the narrow issue of Singh's religion misses a much bigger picture as to the considerations facing the NDP in Quebec. And there may be a case for any of the four candidates in the race as the best-positioned to build support.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a few theories as to what's necessary for a federal leader to win Quebec support, and how the current leadership candidates stack up.

The Native Son

One of the cardinal rules of Canadian politics (and one at least arguably consistent with the results of every federal election dating back 150 years) is that no national leader without substantial Quebec connections beats out another national leader with more substantial roots in the province.

Of course, there are a couple of recent examples which might challenge the theory. In 2004, Stephen Harper's Conservatives managed to top Paul Martin's Libs in the Quebec vote count - though both were far behind Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc. And in 2011, Duceppe saw his party's Quebec-centred message fall to pieces in the face of Jack Layton's surge of support - which again might be distinguished based on one's view of Layton's Quebec connections, and/or the question of whether provincially-based parties such as the Bloc require a separate line of analysis.

If NDP members accept this theory while seeing Quebec success as the primary concern in a new leader, the result isn't merely to rule out Singh as an option, but to turn the campaign into a coronation for Guy Caron. (Again, Peter Julian was the one other candidate who might have made a claim to sufficient links to Quebec to benefit from the rule - but he's now out of the race.)

That said, even taking this theory at its highest, Quebec roots can only be seen as a necessary but not sufficient condition for winning over voters: just ask Stephane Dion, Tom Mulcair, and others who were each merely one among multiple candidates on the stage with Quebec roots. And with Justin Trudeau not looking to leave the scene anytime soon, the NDP can't expect to secure any advantage on this front alone.

Any vote based on the native son theory would thus require not only considering it to be accurate, but viewing Caron as a sufficiently strong option to wrest the title of Quebec's favourite son away from Trudeau. And it doesn't offer a basis for distinction among the remaining candidates: to the contrary, it would imply that if Caron doesn't win the leadership, the NDP may as well focus elsewhere for want of a reasonable hope of challenging the Libs in Quebec.

Needless to say, I'd hope leadership voters will have a much more optimistic view of the NDP's prospects than that (as Layton did when he built up his own connection to Quebec). Which brings us to...

Le Bon Jack

The 2011 Orange Wave offers a rare example of a leader managing to win a plurality of Quebec voters and majority of seats by appealing to them over a leader based in the province. And there's little doubt that Layton's persona was a crucial part of that success.

If members are looking for the candidate who can most plausibly mirror Layton's political skills, then Charlie Angus likely has the best claim to the title. In addition to being stylistically similar to Layton, he's also done the most to match Layton's organizational skills in building up membership and fund-raising support under the radar.

That said, after winning the NDP's leadership Layton put in a large amount of effort to build up both his personal recognition and his comfort level in Quebec over a period of nearly a decade. And it took four election cycles before he was finally able to break through with more than a single seat.

Angus might project to have a reasonable chance to develop as Layton did. But it's far from certain whether leadership voters will want to allow that much of a development phase. And members focused on holding and winning seats in the near term may have reason to wonder about his ability to speak to Quebec voters by 2019.

The Movement Leader

Meanwhile, if French language skills in particular are going to be an issue, then Niki Ashton looks to be the next-strongest candidate after Caron. And while her most favourable model won't find many federal analogues (aside from arguably the Bloc), she can point to the provincial scene as offering some useful examples to follow.

It's been well documented how a single popular leader connected to a movement which sees itself as underrepresented in politics can drastically change Quebec's political landscape - with prominent recent examples including the rise of the ADQ and its evolution into the CAQ over the past decade-plus.

Of course, the precise groups of voters who have shifted allegiances to back those parties probably aren't among the ones likely to turn to Ashton in the near future. But the latest example of a movement turning into a political force is one which could very plausibly rally behind an Ashton-led NDP: Quebec Solidaire has been hitting new heights in provincial polling due in no small part to the arrival of student leader Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois as one of its spokespersons.

Ashton may not start with the level of public familiarity Nadeau-Dubois has earned in Quebec. But there's a case to be made that her plan for a national movement can work with and incorporate the same activists who seem to be transforming the province's provincial scene.

The Precedent Setter

If all of the other candidates can point to Quebec precedents for a plan to build up NDP support, Singh may have to look further afield. But he figures to be able to adapt the strategies which have helped break down barriers before.

In particular, it's questionable that numbers which refer to a personal trait rather than a particular leader can be expected to hold up if they clash with perceptions of that candidate. It's one thing for poll respondents to express a view based on only one attribute, particularly if they're not frequently exposed to people who share it; it's quite another to make a decision about a person for whom that attribute is just one part of a well-developed persona.

On that front, I'll point to Charles Franklin's look at similar polling in the U.S. - which shows the largest jump in willingness to vote for any particular trait arising after John F. Kennedy became the first Catholic President. And while the numbers which would have influenced Kennedy's candidacy start from a higher baseline, that may be based in part on more friendly wording (i.e. emphasizing that the candidate is qualified and of the same party as the respondent.)

To the extent there is a need to change minds about whether a single characteristic affects one's ability to lead, the first step in changing minds will be to call out and challenge whatever embedded assumptions may otherwise have resulted in any discomfort. And Singh is already doing a stellar job on that front (with a particular emphasis on connecting to Quebec voters).

But even among voters who aren't won over by messages about Singh's background in particular, the best way to challenge preconceived assumptions about the leadership of a person wearing a head covering is for a leader to be effective while wearing a head covering. Which means that NDP members who otherwise recognize Singh's strengths shouldn't see perceived public opinion about his religion as a meaningful reason to vote against him.

Conclusion

In sum, I don't see much basis to single out any one of the leadership candidates for a different test in evaluating how Quebec voters are likely to respond.

Each will face a great deal of work to be done - and some daunting historical precedents to overcome - in winning over voters in Quebec and across Canada. And for each, the strengths which help to connect and win over NDP members should be effectively the same factors which contribute to the NDP's success down the road.