Tuesday, March 05, 2013

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - March 5

So far, I've limited these rankings to the question of which candidate I see as most likely to emerge victorious at the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership convention.

But since the rankings haven't produced any substantial movement, I'll include a bit more to this week's prognostication, adding my best guess as to the candidates' first-ballot support andestimated chance of victory.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

While I'm not entirely convinced that Meili is set to double the vote totals of his two remaining competitors, he still looks to be in the pole position heading into this weekend's convention. And the large number of votes cast in advance looks to be good news for Meili on two fronts: it minimizes the likelihood or effect of any concerted joint effort by the remaining two candidates, and it raises the number of votes likely to be cast in advance for one candidate only (which will limit the opportunity for another candidate to gain ground).

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 42%
Best-guess probability of victory: 65%

2. Cam Broten (2)

Once again, Broten may have more room to maneuver his way from second place into an eventual win. But it's still an open question whether he'll stay close enough for his down-ballot advantages to come into play - and even then it's not clear how many votes will remain to be won.

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 31%
Best-guess probability of victory: 25%

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

Finally, Wotherspoon's chance of victory is based largely on the possibility that we don't have perfect information about the candidates' first-ballot support. But he faces a tough road in down-ballot support even if he starts out ahead - meaning that like Meili, he may be best off with a high number of one-choice advance votes which reduces the count needed to win on a second ballot.

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 27%
Best-guess probability of victory: 10%

6 comments:

  1. Because I'm kind of a numbers guy, I can't help but say that if the first ballots turn out the way you are estimating, the probability of Ryan winning is significantly higher. Just playing with the scenario here, not actually guessing at what would happen, but if there's an 11 point difference between Cam and Ryan after one ballot, that would mean that at least 19.5 points of Trent's support would have to go to Cam for Cam to win on the final ballot. That's over 72% of Trent's support.

    It will be an interesting weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No argument there Aaron. As alluded to in my comment on Wotherspoon, the probability number is intended to reflect some uncertainty as to the first-ballot results - but if the first ballot goes as I expect, then Meili should be close to a lock.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous11:32 AM

    Fundraising numbers tend to reflect ballot position which would put Wotherspoon in second place.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I see fund-raising as being just one indicator among many - but that's certainly one of the positive ones for Wotherspoon.

      Delete
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