Monday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your Boxing Day reading - with plenty of interesting news below the headlines.

- Naturally the Globe and Mail's headline focuses on a modest dip (to a 14-point lead) in Quebec rather than the NDP's strong national performance. But the more noteworthy development in the latest Nanos polling looks to be the NDP's gaining ground both nationally and in Ontario - even after a fall session where the media regularly edited the Leader of the Official Opposition out of political coverage. And with the NDP's leadership race now set to lead political coverage at the start of 2012, there's plenty of reason for optimism that the NDP can build from its current base.

- Meanwhile, Postmedia's own hand-wringing about the NDP in Quebec is at least based on the single poll which, taken alone, could explain the angle. But more striking than the current poll numbers is the line taken by the one party with the most obvious chance to take ground back from the NDP:

Elected the new leader of the Bloc on Dec. 11, Daniel Paille immediately leaped into the fray to attack the party that ravaged them so badly in May.

He said the NDP's inability to defend Quebec's interests in the same way the Bloc used to explains part of the NDP's slide.

"The NDP house members from Quebec are there because they are truly Canadian first," Paille said at his first news conference as leader. "If they have a question, if they have a problem, they have to go to the national caucus in Ottawa, wait to express their opinions about (issues related to) Quebec values in comparison to the (issues related to) Canadian values."

Now, it makes sense that the Bloc might see a hard-line anti-Canada approach as representing its best chance to rebuild a fund-raising and volunteer base. But considering that the NDP's message which resonated so thoroughly in Quebec was "travaillons ensemble", it's hard to see how a concerted attack on the idea of cooperation will be anything but a millstone around the Bloc's neck when it comes to winning over the general public.

- Also on the polling front, Eric points out one feature of more recent polling that's gone largely unnoticed so far:

The NDP is also poised to make gains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In the context of the end of the Canadian Wheat Board, Conservative support has slipped to below 50 per cent in the two provinces, allowing the New Democrats to pull above 30 per cent. This puts them in a particularly good position in Saskatchewan, where there were a number of close ridings in the last election.

- Mia Rabson's year-end roundup features some make-or-break expectation-setting by the Libs:

Right off the top in 2012, the Liberals will hold a major policy convention in Ottawa. Scheduled for Jan. 13 to 15, the biennial convention will begin carving the road forward for the Liberals. They will elect a new president, and debate and pass a number of policy resolutions with the hope of generating policy positions for the party, which may once again interest voters and draw them to the Liberal fold.
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Liberal organizers need this convention to re-engage everyday Canadians and attendance and interest in the convention alone will be telling for the party.

Outgoing president Alfred Apps predicts it will be a better attended convention than even the NDP and Conservatives have had recently. The party has a lot of work to do and whether it is dying or can come back from the nearly dead will remain a chief topic of conversation next year.

- Finally, on the subject of why it's so important to ensure the NDP is in a position to form government in 2015, Barrie McKenna points out that right-wing anti-tax spin serves as little other than a catalyst for long-term deficits:

Tax cuts actually increase demand for government services, in the same way that lowering the price of gas increases consumption. The result is ever-expanding budget deficits, according to Mr. Ura and Ms. Socker. Tax cuts create a “fiscal illusion” – a sense that life is good and a “perception” that government services are better value.
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Even controlling for such variables as inflation, unemployment and the level of domestic spending, the study finds a statistical link between larger federal deficits and increased public demand for government. In essence, one follows the other.

The key for policymakers, according to Mr. Ura and Ms. Socker, is to steer clear of “revenue policies that obscure the actual costs of government programs and services.”
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The Harper government has offered billions of dollars worth of tax breaks since taking power in 2006. It lowered the goods and services tax, cut corporate income taxes, introduced tax breaks for small businesses and manufacturers, and handed out a batch of small, targeted goodies for individuals.

Ottawa has so far made no commitment to review its lengthy list of tax expenditures as it prepares the next budget, expected as early as February.

That’s a lost opportunity. Tax expenditures are essentially government programs delivered via the tax system. The government must demonstrate that they work – that they produce the intended outcomes at a reasonable price – particularly as it moves to slash the size of government.

If, for example, the government is going to slash Industry Canada’s budget, it should also determine whether it’s getting good value for the nearly $4-billion a year spent on research-and-development tax credits for businesses. Similarly, if Natural Resources is taking a haircut, maybe it’s also time to review the resource company flow-through share deductions and mineral exploration tax credits ($335-million a year). The same questions apply to the $200-million a year in film- and video-production credits, which should be weighed against big cuts to Canadian Heritage. Or, as Ottawa ponders cuts to Health Canada, does it know whether five years of the children’s fitness tax credit ($115-million a year) has made children any healthier?