On battle plans

Alongside the Speaker's ruling on Parliament's right to hold the Harper government to account, the other major story in Canadian politics during my absence involved the Cons' attempt to change the subject by heaping truckloads of ill-placed accusations on EKOS' Frank Graves as part of their quarterly CBC-bashing efforts. And the fact that the Cons seem so scared of Graves' advice to the Libs suggests that there's reason why they're not happy to see it made public.

But let's take a closer look at what Graves' suggestion would likely produce. Here's the summary of what he had to say:

(Graves) was reported as saying that the Liberal party "should invoke a culture war. Cosmopolitan versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy," to unseat the ruling Conservatives.

Presumably the Cons' desperate counterattack is based on their agreement that their socon underbelly makes for the most obvious source of electoral weakness - particularly when Harper is trying (for example) to declare any abortion debate closed in favour of refusing to fund reproductive health or abortion around the globe.

But while the advice may focus in on the Cons' greatest weakness, that isn't to say that it necessarily reflects the greatest theoretical potential for Lib gains either. Instead, it would figure to result in the Libs focusing on preserving their current urban base in a fiery battle over hot-button social issues, while mostly abandoning any focus on Canada's struggling working class to the NDP.

That would figure to be entirely counterproductive for the Libs if their hope is to maximize their chances of a majority or even a clear single-party plurality anytime soon. At least part of any Lib majority coalition surely has to include pocketbook voters who would be turned off by a cultural debate. And what's more, some of the Cons' inroads into suburban areas have been based on making socon appeals to apparently receptive groups - so playing up those issues would present an obvious cap to the Libs' immediate upside.

But while Graves' advice doesn't seem to be oriented toward maximizing the Libs' seat potential in the near future, it might well be the best strategy to ensure a change of government after the next federal election. That is, so long as the Libs and the NDP stick mostly to their complementary lines of attack, and are willing to work together afterward.

After all, the opposition parties need only hold their current seats to revisit the possibility of taking down the Harper Cons now that Ignatieff has learned what happens to those foolish enough to cooperate with Harper. And an all-out "culture war" would figure to allow the Libs to at least maintain their current urban seats and maybe push back into Con territory, while leaving enough political terrain for the NDP to be able to make gains as well.

In other words, Graves' advice makes sense primarily as a means of ensuring that the Libs and NDP are able to work in the same ultimate direction while conveying distinct and effective messages, rather than being locked in a zero-sum contest to own a common set of issues. And there's every reason for the Cons to be scared of that possibility.