Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The reviews are in

Chantal Hebert's takeaway for the NDP from Monday's by-elections:
(W)ith the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff going nowhere fast in Quebec, federalists are looking at other options. While the Conservatives are the main beneficiaries of the Liberal vacuum outside Montreal, the NDP is picking up support on the island.

Former Liberal minister Martin Cauchon, who has set his sights on winning back his ex-riding of Outremont from NDP deputy leader Thomas Mulcair in the next election, might want to take note of the 20 per cent NDP score in neighbouring Hochelaga – a riding where the Liberals used to outvote the NDP by a ratio of 5 to 1 only five years ago.

In British Columbia, the NDP scored a hit with its campaign against the province's upcoming harmonized sales tax, holding on to the New Westminster-Coquitlam riding with an increased majority. It remains to be seen whether a protest vote against a provincial tax can be sustained throughout a full-fledged federal campaign but the issue does provide Jack Layton with a unique wedge against both the Liberals and the Conservatives in a crucial province for the three main parties.

By definition, a good by-election night for Harper and Layton means a sleepless one for the Liberals. There could be more to come. This was Ignatieff's first electoral test and the results are comparable to Stéphane Dion's dismal 2008 score. Against all expectations, it may be that the Liberals did not bottom out in the last election.

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