On lessons learned

Not surprisingly, last night's by-elections produced no major upsets and only a slight shift in party strength in the House of Commons. Which means that their ultimate impact will likely be reflected more in what the parties are able to take away from the by-elections to help shape their message for the future. And interestingly enough, it's there - not in the actual results - that the Libs look to have lost the most ground.

For the NDP, the general lessons are obvious based on the strategies applied in three of the four ridings contested last night. Fin Donnelly's romp in New Westminster-Coquitlam confirmed that the HST is a winning issue in BC; Jean-Claude Rocheleau's difficulty getting within 30 points of the lead even while jumping into second place offered a fairly compelling signal that the Bloc won't easily be displaced in ridings like Hochelaga; and Mark Austin's moderately distant second in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley provided an indication of exactly how far the NDP has come (and how far it has left to go) in building strength across Nova Scotia.

Likewise for the Cons, the contrast between a disappointing result from their invisible candidate in New Westminster-Coquitlam and victories for the more opinionated Bernard Genereux and Scott Armstrong would offer some evidence that strong individual candidates who actually speak publicly can sway more voters than party branding alone. And last night also offered a hint at some of the issues which may prove toxic (the HST) and beneficial (timed pork-barrelling) for the Cons down the road.

For the Libs, it's no huge surprise that last night's vote totals weren't all that great - and indeed Jim Burrows' reasonably close third in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley likely made for a somewhat better outcome than might have been expected. But can anybody actually point to anything the Libs did in the by-elections other than going through the motions? And if not, then doesn't that reflect a failure in planning by a party which desperately needs to move past the realm of habit?

Simply put, it's one thing to lose by-elections while testing out messages and strategies which can be developed (or abandoned) for later - but it's something else entirely to sleepwalk through an opportunity to test in practice what works and what doesn't. And it's hard to escape the conclusion that the Libs were the lone national party in Parliament who faced a lose-lose outcome last night as a result.