Leadership 2009 Week in Review - May 24

I've noted in several previous posts that in my view, a candidate's endorsements will tend to have a diminishing rate of return. The first few well-known figures to back a challenger may have a substantial impact on momentum, while somebody with exactly the same position or name recognition within a party probably won't be seen as changing much by becoming only one of many endorsers for a particular candidate. But this week in the Saskatchewan NDP race may serve as a vivid illustration of one of the exceptions to that rule.

For the previous couple of weeks, Dwain Lingenfelter's campaign had been on the defensive due to the membership controversy. But among the other questions raised was a question of support for his campaign: while earlier supporters probably wouldn't jump ship as long as Lingenfelter stayed in the race, would the incident cause others to hesitate to join?

Based on Lingenfelter's new endorsements this week, including MLA Sandra Morin, former MLA Doreen Hamilton, former MP Lorne Nystrom among others, that doesn't figure to be much of a concern. Indeed, there's little room for doubt that the membership controversy has fallen short of derailing the institutional support that Lingenfelter figured to enjoy going into the convention. And with the Internet and telephone voting period set to start this week and the convention looming just a couple of weeks down the road, any span of time where Lingenfelter isn't obviously losing ground figures to improve his chances of coming out ahead.

This week, Ryan Meili is likely the only challenger who can claim any particular positive development, as he's benefited from media commentary joining in on the view that he's the closest competitor to Lingenfelter. But that will only be enough for Meili to tread water as long as the other two candidates' position is deteriorating, as Meili's path to victory is still largely predicated on Higgins and Pedersen holding enough early support to hold Lingenfelter short of a first-ballot win.

So where does that leave the race, again based on nothing more than my personal guess as to the numbers involved?

Candidate	1st Ballot Win	Final Ballot	Final Ballot Win	4th on 1st	Total Win
Dwain Lingenfelter	44 (38)	42 (43)	9 (10)	0 (1)	53 (48)
Ryan Meili	2 (3)	36 (34)	24 (23)	4 (6)	26 (26)
Deb Higgins	0 (2)	25 (29)	19 (22)	4 (3)	19 (24)
Yens Pedersen	0 (0)	5 (8)	2 (2)	46 (47)	2 (2)