On alienation

Murray Mandryk's profile of Dwain Lingenfelter is definitely worth a read. But from my standpoint at least, Mandryk largely misses the most important question for a lot of NDP members as to what a Lingenfelter victory would mean:

With dwindling hopes of NDP victory in 2011 and perhaps even less chance of mentoring the current younger New Democrats he's alienated during this leadership contest, some worry Lingenfelter will leave the 20-member NDP caucus in worse shape.

- What he needs to do to win: He must convince those who aren't already his first-ballot supporters to look past the membership embarrassment and believe that Brad Wall does have reason to fear this veteran political warrior.

Of course, it was at the start of the same profile that Mandryk made the entirely accurate point that Wall's public posturing about preferring to face Lingenfelter than other leadership contenders has to be taken with a truckload of salt. Combined with the disruption which Lingenfelter has already caused for Wall's government, there seems to be little reason for doubt that Wall has some reason for concern about facing off against Lingenfelter. And to the extent anybody thought there was any doubt that Lingenfelter would indeed offer a hard-nosed alternative to Wall, he's made that clear throughout the leadership race.

The more important question, though, it what kind of party Lingenfelter would end up leading into that battle. And throughout the leadership contest, the main concern I've heard surrounding "younger New Democrats" outside Link's camp hasn't been that they'd choose not to be mentored by him, but instead that they'd be marginalized within the party in favour of those who demonstrated earlier loyalty to Lingenfelter. (And it may be a similar line of thinking that explains Mandryk's observation about left-leaning unions and other groups who have joined Lingenfelter's camp: the motivation could easily be far less one of ideological affinity than a perception that they need to be at the front of the line for the front-runner's attention.)

In that respect, the major question for Lingenfelter over the next week or so isn't whether he'll be tough on Wall, but whether he'll demonstrate his willingness to listen to and work with the other leadership camps - regardless of how the leadership race turns out.

If he puts forward that message, then there will be every reason for optimism that the convention can be followed up in short order by an effort to bring together the best of what all the leadership camps have had to offer. But if Lingenfelter and his camp instead push party members need to declare that they're either with him or against him - or worse yet, lapse back into Lingenfelter's occasional position that the other candidates' presence in the leadership race doesn't matter - then it can't come as much surprise if his campaign controversies drive a large number of members to decide they need to oppose Lingenfelter in the interest of the broader party.