Poll position

All the usual caveats about reading too much into poll results are only amplified when a poll is taken early on in a race involving unfamiliar candidates. And Sigma Analytics' survey on the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership race looks to be particularly problematic in that it seems to have polled the general public rather than the NDP members who will actually decide the leadership race. But there are still a couple of points worth noting about the results:

Relatively few Saskatchewanians are following the race for the leadership of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party, but among who are, the clear favourite is former cabinet minister Dwain Lingenfelter, a new Leader-Post-Sigma Analytics poll says.

He drew the support of about 62 per cent of those who expressed a preference.

Coming second was Moose Jaw MLA Deb Higgins with 16. 7 per cent, followed by Yens Pedersen and Ryan Meili at 11.9 per cent and 9.1 per cent, respectively.

“I think that what you’re seeing is that Dwain Lingenfelter is a known name — and has been for a couple of decades,” said pollster Cam Cooper. “He’s kept up his profile even though he’s been away, so he’s sustained his position in the public consciousness whereas the other candidates have a much lower profile.”

It's difficult to disagree with Cooper's analysis that the numbers likely have far more to do with merely recognizing a name rather than detailed individual preferences. But it's worth highlighting how the candidates seem to have lined up in that department.

In principle, one would think that Higgins' profile would be relatively close to Lingenfelter's level. After all, in addition to being the lone current MLA in the race, she too has spent a substantial amount of time in cabinet, including some files which (for better or for worse) have placed her at the centre of attention at times. And of course her time in the spotlight was more recent than Lingenfelter's.

But from the looks of the poll results, Higgins doesn't seem to be benefiting from much more of a profile than relative newcomers Pedersen or Meili. Which would apparently serve as evidence either of strength on Lingenfelter's part in getting his name back in the news since the race started, or weakness on Higgins' when it comes to building up her public image.

Again, all of the candidates have reason to take the results with a truckload of salt. While there doesn't seem to be much doubt that Lingenfelter holds the lead, it would seem highly likely that his majority-plus in the Sigma poll is based at least in a part on a combination of name recognition with respondents who aren't following the race closely, and his relative right-wing position which might make him the preferred candidate of other parties' supporters who wouldn't be voting in the NDP race. But Sigma's findings do suggest that the competition behind Lingenfelter is far closer than might have been suspected - which can only bode well in giving all the candidates reason to keep the pedal to the floor as the membership deadline approaches.