On relative strengths

Most of the commentary on the latest Nanos polling numbers seems to give far too much weight to top-line voting intention numbers which are still within the NDP's usual historical levels. But there is some news in the latest poll which may pose either a challenge or an opportunity for the NDP in looking to build its support levels.

In most of the country, the NDP is polling significantly better as a party than Jack Layton is as the leader, topping Layton's "best prime minister" numbers by 2 points in Atlantic Canada, 5 points in Ontario and 6 points in Western Canada. Which would seem to suggest that for those areas, the party brand is relatively strong - but the combination of focused attacks from the Cons during the coalition period and the installation of Michael Ignatieff has significantly affected Layton's position as compared to the other federal leaders.

Meanwhile, the exact opposite trend looks to be playing out in Quebec. There, the NDP's party support numbers dropped significantly over the last month as both the Libs and Cons gained some ground. But Layton is still holding up extremely well on a personal level - keeping steady at 19% in the "best prime minister" numbers, ahead of Harper and well within striking distance of Ignatieff for the top spot.

Of course, there's always some question as to whether the NDP's attention is best put toward emphasizing its current strengths or ameliorating its current weaknesses. But from the current numbers, the party's greatest potential to play to its strengths would seem to be based on emphasizing Layton personally in Quebec while playing up the party brand elsewhere (particularly as a combination of leadership races and provincial elections raises the NDP's profile in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and potentially Nova Scotia). And that combination could nicely position the NDP to move back toward and beyond the high end of its usual range of support once Ignatieff's honeymoon period comes to an end.