On impending endorsements

Following up on last night's post about endorsements in the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race, let's take a closer look at whose endorsements might mean the most for the leadership contestants - and how likely those endorsements might be.

To start with, though, one needs to ask why a particular individual wouldn't have made an endorsement to date - which may be a particularly important question when it comes to current MLAs whose colleagues have largely made a choice already.

I'd see three obvious possible explanations for the current MLAs. Some might simply prefer to maintain their neutrality rather than taking one side or another. Others might have effectively decided already, but may figure that they can better help out their preferred candidate by announcing that support later on in the contest. In either of those cases, any effort by other candidates to woo a particular MLA would likely be a lost cause - though of course it's possible that an MLA could be persuaded to change course.

That leaves the third possibility: some MLAs may be open to an endorsement, want to wait to see what happens during the leadership campaign itself before deciding exactly who to endorse. That type of sentiment may be particularly strong for anybody looking to decide between Meili and Pedersen as the preferred candidate for party renewal. But it could easily operate on some other levels as well, based on either candidate momentum during the leadership campaign or the candidates' platforms on any issues of particular concern.

It'll be tough to say from the outside which factors might be at play for any particular MLA. In light of the past talk about Taylor himself entering the race, it could be that he just hasn't had all that much time to look at the candidates as possible endorsees as opposed to potential competitors - and it would make sense that he'd want to have the maximum impact with his endorsement to position himself for the future. Forbes and Morin are strong, younger forces within the caucus, and their calculations in balancing long-term party strength with the likelihood of supporting a winner or strong challenger may offer an instructive example for the rest of the party.

Perhaps most interesting, though, is John Nilson. Having been a longtime colleague of both Lingenfelter and Higgins, he wouldn't figure to need any more information in order to endorse one over the other if he planned to do so. Of course it wouldn't be particularly surprising if he did decide to stay neutral - but his endorsement might be the highest-impact one possible for either of the younger candidates.

While it remains to be seen what the current MLAs will do, one can safely say that the most obvious narratives in the campaign so far haven't managed to sway those who are still on the fence. And since it seems relatively unlikely that experience-based messages from longtime cabinet ministers will be amplified to any great extent during the course of a leadership race, one has to figure that Meili and Pedersen have strong chances to attract some support from within the current caucus.

So what about those outside the caucus? The additional point to keep in mind for those figures is that one more option exists which isn't on the table for current MLAs: it could be that some of the listed individuals simply don't plan to be involved in the race or even the provincial party, and thus don't have any interest in endorsing a candidate.

Now, it's unlikely that description will apply to the younger names who will plan on running again in the future. In that department, Maynard Sonntag and Graham Addley are likely in a fairly similar position to the current MLAs, as they'll offer both caucus experience and recent organizational heft. But at the same time, they may not yet have quite the same ability to turn heads as the NDP's party elders.

In contrast, longtime figures like Eric Cline, Eldon Lautermilch, Clay Serby, Dick Proctor or Lorne Nystrom should be able to make some significant waves with their endorsements if they choose to get involved. And again, that will go doubly where any of the longtime MLAs throws support to a candidate who wasn't a caucus colleague ahead of those who were.

That said, there are very few potential endorsers who can help any candidate in both the "big name" and "current organization" departments - with the current MLAs, Sonntag, Addley and Nettie Wiebe likely topping that list. And with that few major endorsers left to be won over, just one or two well-timed nods from that list could make all the difference in how the race plays out.