While Ontario's NDP leadership race came to a conclusion this week with the election of Andrea Horwath, Saskatchewan's contest kicked into full gear - featuring the first platform release by Yens Pedersen, key endorsements for Ryan Meili and Dwain Lingenfelter, and the first public forum in Regina. But let's take a step back from the most recent developments to see if they've really changed how the rest of the campaign figures to play out.
The great unknown at this point in the campaign is how Lingenfelter's head start will influence the race. The combination of being the presumed frontrunner from the beginning, getting to campaign for several months before anybody else formally entered the race, and locking up a substantial amount of caucus and party support has always raised the possibility that the race would be unwinnable for anybody else by the time it started in earnest.
Moreover, the lack of much negative campaigning on the part of any other candidates has limited the likelihood of the type of "anything but" narrative which has derailed so many other heavy favourites in other contests. Instead, Lingenfelter has managed to control his public portrayal by injecting himself into the media with his attacks on the Wall government.
But Lingenfelter's message also hints at his most obvious vulnerability. While I've pointed out a technical issue with his boilerplate endorsement text, there's a more substantive problem with the message his campaign has sent through its recent releases: the more his campaign brands him with concepts like "take on Wall" and "2011", the more Lingenfelter risks ending up on the wrong side of a comparison to others who present a longer-term vision for the direction of the party and the province.
From Deb Higgins' end, the past week was another quiet one from a campaign which has been surprisingly subdued from day one. Which means that it's tough to get much of a read on her message going forward. But it'll be worth following how the return of the Saskatchewan legislature might affect her campaign from here on in.
It's not hard to see how the only current caucus member in the race may be able to tie her legislative duties into opportunities to build her leadership profile. But her responsibilities at the legislature may also have an effect on the amount of time and attention she's able to devote to the race. And with an April 24 deadline looming to sell memberships to potential supporters, Higgins may have to rely more than most on persuading members after the deadline rather than trying to bring new members into the party.
For Ryan Meili, this week featured a significant breakthrough as his support expanded to include highly recognizable names within the Saskatchewan NDP. And any concerns about youth and relative political inexperience would seem to be relatively easily answered when two experienced cabinet members are in his camp - reflecting both their judgment that he's up for the task of leading the party, and their likely availability to offer advice if needed.
But it's still a tall order for a newcomer to both assemble a campaign machine and build up a public profile in the amount of time Meili has before the membership deadline. And it'll be awhile before we know for sure just how far Meili has managed to progress in the areas which will ultimately determine the race's outcome.
Petersen too looks to have accomplished plenty this week, presenting himself well at the candidate forum and unveiling his platform. But while I've pointed out the upside of taking the initiative to get out in front on policy, it's worth noting that it also limits what Pedersen can do to earn public attention for the rest of the campaign.
By releasing his platform all at once rather than bit by bit, Pedersen took a one-time publicity boost at the cost of losing much ability to earn media coverage with later policy suggestions. Which means that he'll need to either have some significant endorsements in his back pocket to keep his name in play over the near future, or find some other way to get his name in front of the party's members.
In sum, the events of the last week doesn't seem to reflect a radical change in position for any of the leadership candidates. But we've entered the relatively narrow window to bring in new members while the race is receiving regular public attention - and while it may be tough to tell what will prove decisive until after the fact, it's likely that what's going on behind the scenes now will play a massive part in determining the future direction of the Saskatchewan NDP.
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