On positioning

With Saskatchewan NDP leadership contest finally in full swing, Yens Pedersen has become the first candidate to release a full platform. And while much of Pedersen's platform figures to be fairly similar to what we'll see from each of the candidates, a few aspects of his plan look to have some interesting potential effects on the race in general.

Before the platform came out, I'd figured that Pedersen's most plausible path to a place on a final ballot depended largely on factors beyond his control. In particular, with Ryan Meili having managed to place himself as the main youth/renewal candidate, Pedersen would have to hope for Meili to start slipping in hopes of picking up any support that shook loose.

Instead, Pedersen's campaign has staked out some ground which should set him apart from his competitors for the time being - making it easier for him to draw in support in the short term, but also potentially limiting the likelihood of other candidates' supporters moving to him later on.

In particular, Pedersen's plans affecting the province's relationship with municipalities and other local bodies would seem likely to polarize NDPers either for or against Pedersen. A substantial number of people will almost certainly have significant concerns about dissolving regional health authorities and potentially putting school boards on the chopping block as well. And a campaign theme of "central planning", along with the establishment of potentially costly requirements like the remediation of all buildings containing asbestos, can only feed into the worries of those with a preference for relatively localized and specialized decision-making.

On the flip side, though, it doesn't seem all that likely that the other candidates will mount anywhere near the explicit focus on public-sector centralization that Pedersen has presented. Which means that Pedersen's platform launch could serve to carve out a significant niche as the candidate of efficiency through central management - particularly if he's able to use any mention of SaskPower and SaskEnergy in the news to direct attention to his amalgamation proposal.

Likewise, Pedersen's plan to phase out coal-generated electricity looks to be an unpopular one in some circles and regions. But it's doubtful that any other candidate will take that strong a position against an industry which certainly has its detractors - meaning that the idea looks fairly well calculated to bring people into Pedersen's camp who won't have anywhere else to go.

Again, the downside to the above proposals is that they may also limit the pool of members willing to move their support to Pedersen later on in the race. But Pedersen nonetheless deserves credit for both taking the initiative in shaping the issues which will be discussed, and carving out strong positions from the beginning. And it'll be very interesting to see where the other candidates wind up as the campaign moves toward more discussion of policy positions.