On realignment

Sean has already discussed the Angus Reid Strategies poll showing the NDP running a remarkably close second behind the Cons in Saskatchewan. But from what I can tell, the potential impact of the numbers is far greater than merely affecting already-close races around the margins.

In looking at the races for this year's election, consider the difference between the 2006 and 2008 baselines within the province. In 2006, the "generic" Con/NDP matchup would start with a 25-point Con advantage. If the new polling is on target, then that number is all the way down to 5 points - making for a 20-point net swing between the two parties.

With that in mind, let's take a look at how some key ridings compared to the provincial averages in 2006, starting with the ridings mentioned by Sean as pickup opportunities.

If the NDP is 20 points up on the Cons province-wide compared to 2006, then it in fact figures to be a heavy favourite in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Regina-Qu'Appelle and Palliser, as adding those 20 points onto the 2006 results would place it at +13, +11 and +10, respectively. Which would leave the Cons scrambling to try to counter the shift in the electorate, not defending those seats from a position of strength.

Instead, the seats which figure to be actual toss-ups are the ones which Sean mentions as opportunities for "gains on the Tory incumbents". Applying a 20-point shift to the 2006 numbers, the NDP's position in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre (+6), Blackstrap (+3), Saskatoon-Humboldt (even) and Saskatoon-Wanuskewin (-7) would make all of those races closer than the first tier of pickup opportunities.

Perhaps more significantly, though, the poll results could reflect a fundamental shift in party expectations within the province. For far too long, the default position has been that the Cons or their predecessors would hold a strong plurality of support and a majority of seats within Saskatchewan. And as I've noted before, all indications this time out were that any progress in winning seats from the Cons would similarly be based on poaching seats by narrow margins within a general sea of blue.

But the new poll suggests that the NDP is in fact close to even terms in votes across the province as a whole, not merely within striking distance in a couple of seats. And it can only be for the best if movement in support this year anticipates a longer-term shift away from the Cons as the dominant federal party within the province.