David Akin posts about the drop in turnout at the advance polls for the upcoming federal election, as well as some interesting riding-level trends. But I'm not sure that his conclusions match the data he presents.
As Akin notes, high turnout is generally assumed be better for challengers for incumbents. And in that respect, it seems highly significant to me that turnout seems to be highest in Con-held ridings and lowest in opposition-held ones - suggesting that it's Con (and to a lesser extent Bloc) incumbents who are facing the strongest challenges.
In contrast, Akin figures that it's Cons rather than other parties who tend to get their vote out in advance, and looks for a way to spin the numbers in their favour. But while there's probably some argument to be made that the high advance turnout in ridings which weren't particularly close could be interpreted as a sign that Con supporters are voting locally before heading out to closer ridings to volunteer on election day, that simply doesn't fit the pattern which Akin acknowledges as to whether the high turnout normally favours incumbents. And I'd have to wonder whether the Cons have run out of steam on the advance polling front precisely because they're in power rather than having the energy of an opposition party.
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