On firewalls

There's little doubt that the Nanos polling numbers over the last three days (all showing the New Democrats at 22% nationally) offer ample reason to figure the NDP is headed for significant gains. But Stockholm at Rabble raises an important point about just what role the New Democrats stand to play in Ontario based latest numbers placing the party at an impressive 26%:

It remains to be seen if the NDP actually does that well in Ontario - but I will say this - if the Nanos was right and Ontario split its vote C35, L33, NDP26 and G9 - it would be a very similar vote split to what we saw in the 1975 Ontario provincial election when the Ontario popular vote went PC36, L34, NDP 28 - and that produced 51 Tories, 36 Liberals and 38(!!)NDPers.

I think that if this scenario unfolded, it would mean that the NDP would go beyond winning the "low-hanging fruit" from '06 (ie: all those seats in the north, plus Oshawa, B-EY and Welland) and might have some surprise wins in places like Essex, Sarnia, Guelph, Davenport, York-South-West etc.

What's particularly worth noting is that in this scenario, it's the NDP's share of the vote and associated seat count that would serve as a definitive barrier against a Con majority. With Quebec substantially out of play, the Cons obviously need at least 20 or so additional seats in Ontario to have any hope of reaching 155. And any chance they have of pulling that off depends on the Libs reeling in NDP voters to limit the number of parties capable of holding back Harper, while bleeding support to the Cons on their right over the last couple of days.

But while that's entirely possible if the Libs manage to polarize the race, a three-way split in Ontario votes and seats would lead to an entirely different story. With the Libs likely to hang on to a number of their safe seats, a continued NDP surge would ensure that there simply aren't enough ridings for the taking to allow the Cons to get their majority in Ontario.

All of which means that with the polls where Nanos now places them, there's every reason for Ontario votes to stick with - or move to - the New Democrats as the best chance to keep Harper in check, as well as the strongest voice opposing his agenda. And if the end result is to send the Libs the message that they need to work with the NDP in a coalition in order to remove Harper from power, then all the better for progressive voters.