A warm reception

It's remarkable enough that Jack Layton is outpacing Stephane Dion as the public's choice for prime minister in every region of the country in the latest Ipsos Reid poll - ranking tops among all leaders in Atlantic Canada, and even managing to stay ahead of Dion in the Libs' Ontario stronghold. But what's perhaps most amazing is that even on Dion's signature issue, he manages to rank well behind Layton:

Layton beat the Liberal and Conservative leaders as being the most "sincerely committed to dealing with global warming," with 38 per cent support, compared with 30 per cent for Dion and 27 per cent for Harper.

Bricker said that shows that Dion's Green Shift carbon tax proposal is not resonating with Canadians.

"His strength as being an advocate for the environment is clearly not cutting it at this stage."

Mind you, the poll isn't quite as complete as one would like: having finally added Layton into the mix in assessing public attitudes toward the leaders, it does still omit Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe. But considering that the Dion/May tag-team has been most prominent in messaging about the carbon tax, it's hard to see how including May on the environment issue in particular would do much but siphon off even more respondents from Dion's totals.

Meanwhile, Layton's strong numbers may only be the beginning for the NDP, as the issues considered most important by respondents seem to be leaning far into the party's longtime comfort zone:

In addition, the Ipsos Reid survey found that no big campaign issue has emerged, with the environment (28 per cent), health care (28 per cent) and the economy (26 per cent) in a virtual tie.

Even assuming that the NDP doesn't have enough time and messaging capability to point out that its historical record of budget management is better than that of the other parties, the economy looks likely to be close to a saw-off between the Cons and Libs. Which leaves one main issue of concern where Layton is well out in front of his competitors, and another area with some strong NDP associations which the Libs and Cons have essentially avoided since the 2006 election.

Of course, there's still a long way to go for the NDP to translate a well-respected leader and obvious issue potential into increased party support. But those areas do offer an ideal starting point for the NDP to start moving soft party support numbers and making its case for a turn in government.