A raw deal

While I try to keep fairly close tabs on the sports scene, I don't often cover sports subjects on this blog; indeed, I think I have exactly once before, when the 'Riders made the most significant personnel move in the franchise's recent history. That is, until today, when they apparently decided they'd had enough of a Grey Cup-calibre quarterback.

But while I've seen plenty of criticism of the reported trade sending Kerry Joseph to Toronto for Glenn January, Ronald Flemons and draft picks, it looks to me like the deal is even worse than it would seem on the surface.

I'll note first that I haven't seem much discussion of the alternative which Eric Tillman seems to have rejected: namely, giving Joseph a contract extension for the kind of money he's looking for (which I presume to be in the 300-400K range).

Based on the CFL's salary management system, that is a lot of money to put into a single player. But KJ may be one of the few players in the league who's more than worth it - even at age 34.

To see why, it's worth drawing a distinction between young player's skills and old player's skills, as others have done (for example) in baseball. Even at 34, Joseph's speed was better than any other CFL starting QB, and his arm strength well within range of anybody other than Michael Bishop. Which means that his athletic gifts - or "young player's skills" - still figure to be well above average for a long time to come.

Meanwhile, unlike most quarterbacks his age, there's still some realistic prospect of improvement in the "old player's skills" category (particularly in throwing accuracy, and possibly somewhat in decision-making as well) due to Joseph's relative inexperience at the position. Which means that Joseph could easily be a better player in the next five years than he was in the last five - making a long-term contract a positive prospect rather than a negative one.

Let's accept, though, that Joseph might have left the 'Riders after the 2008 season rather than re-upping. Even then, I'd argue that the smart play would have been to keep him around to finish up his contract.

After all, Tillman did recently acquire a quarterback with a profile relatively similar to Joseph's in Steven Jyles. But there doesn't seem to be much indication that Jyles is ready to start just yet, due to both accuracy and interception issues. And a year of mentoring from the prototype for his style of play would seem to significantly improve Jyles' chances of evolving into a CFL starter for 2009.

Which means that by keeping Joseph, the 'Riders would have not only maintained a better chance of winning in '08, but also enjoyed a greater likelihood of developing an impact starter for the longer term.

In Joseph's absence, the 'Riders' presumptive QB is now Marcus Crandell, who doesn't offer anything close to KJ's athletic ability. With the team now unable to rely on Joseph to stretch out plays and spread the defence, the entire offence will need to adjust to having less time and space to work with - likely making the jobs of every offensive player more difficult. And since Crandell will need to try to outguess defences rather than being able to create space, the 'Riders figure to be far worse off in the turnover department as well, making the defence's job more difficult too.

Needless to say, the 'Riders did get some talent in return. But I don't see the new acquisitions taking any of the edge off the deal: Flemons figures at best to challenge Kitwana Jones to take over Fred Perry's lineup spot, January doesn't figure to be much of a long-term improvement on the better of Steve Morley or Chris Best, and the draft picks are at best lottery tickets for the long term.

Of course, Eric Tillman has pleasantly surprised with some odd-looking moves before - e.g. bringing in a dozen qualified receivers to last year's camp while Gainer looked to have a shot at a backup RB spot, then reversing that positional imbalance by the middle of the season.

But while Tillman has shown plenty of ingenuity in pulling extra backs and receivers out of thin air, it's far harder to find a QB with enough skill and experience to lead a team to the top of the league. And it looks like Tillman just gave away what may have been the least replaceable player in the CFL for exactly the kind of fungible assets he should have been able to track down elsewhere.