I didn't get around to commenting on the Saskatchewan Roughriders' last loss before its implications were overtaken by subsequent events. But with the 'Riders still having another week and a half before they play another game, let's note that the firings of Greg Marshall and Doug Berry deal at best with part of the 'Riders' problems - and that the 'Riders may miss a huge opportunity if they don't identify and deal with the other over the next few weeks.
To start with, let's take a quick stroll through the 'Riders' player acquisitions in recent seasons to see if we can identify a trend. The below is entirely subjective and possibly incomplete, but it's a rough look at the future CFL starters (projecting a few players to that role) the 'Riders have brought into the league over the past half dozen years...
2006: Andy Fantuz, Luca Congi, Lance Frazier, Sean Lucas, Maurice Lloyd, Anton McKenzie, James Johnson
2007: John Chick, Chris Best (previously drafted), Yanick Carter
2008: Weston Dressler, Adarius Bowman, Keith Shologan, Rob Bagg, James Patrick, Hugh Charles, Stu Foord
2009: Jerrell Freeman, Chris McKenzie, Kye Stewart, Bobby Harris
2010: Brent Hawkins, Shomari Williams, Jordan Sisco, Cary Koch, Nick Graham
2011: Terrence Nunn, Craig Butler, Chris Milo
Now, I'm open to corrections as to players missing from the above. But I'm not sure there's any escaping the trend that the 'Riders have been bringing in substantially less talent - in terms of both numbers and impact - since Eric Tillman stepped down from the GM position in early 2009.
Instead, Brendan Taman has generally patched over the 'Riders' roster needs with CFL veterans - meaning that the 'Riders' major additions have been players already deemed not good enough by the team's competitors. And that can work to fill some roles. But it doesn't get a team anywhere in building up the regular supply of cheap and developing talent that it needs to thrive in a hard-capped league.
Fortunately, this season offers an unusually strong opportunity to replenish the 'Riders complement of young players.
There's been plenty of talk about the NFL's truncated offseason from that league's perspective. But to the extent NFL teams haven't had the opportunity to instruct rookies in their systems throughout the offseason and don't have time to fully evaluate them in a shortened training camp, it also stands to reason that there should be more talent cut loose for CFL teams to snap up.
Which means that any team which can take advantage of the glut of NFL cuts should be able to keep itself stocked with talent for a long time to come. And no team figures to be better positioned to do that than one which has reason to overhaul its roster anyway.
Of course, the 'Riders should still do what they reasonably can to try to make the playoffs - and maybe Ken Miller's return as head coach will help on that front. But I'll argue that the lesson the team most needs to take from this season's dropoff is that an organization can't afford to consistently eschew young talent in favour of mediocre stopgaps. And the 'Riders' ability to recruit the best possible complement of NFL cuts out of the unusually strong harvest may make for the difference between a single disappointing season, and another run of futility of the type that 'Rider fans know all too well.
[Edit: fixed wording.]
Showing posts with label eric tillman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eric tillman. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Diminishing returns
One more question worth asking about the Kerry Joseph to Toronto trade - though I hope the 'Riders have done their due diligence to make sure that the return they got on paper will materialize.
As Eric Tillman was at pains to point out back when it was reported that the 'Riders were over the salary cap for 2007, the league's audits of team finances aren't going to be available until April. And one of the penalties for exceeding the salary cap is the loss of a first-round draft pick.
So is it possible that a significant chunk of the already-unimpressive return for KJ will vanish into thin air if the Argos turn out to be over the cap?
As Eric Tillman was at pains to point out back when it was reported that the 'Riders were over the salary cap for 2007, the league's audits of team finances aren't going to be available until April. And one of the penalties for exceeding the salary cap is the loss of a first-round draft pick.
So is it possible that a significant chunk of the already-unimpressive return for KJ will vanish into thin air if the Argos turn out to be over the cap?
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
A raw deal
While I try to keep fairly close tabs on the sports scene, I don't often cover sports subjects on this blog; indeed, I think I have exactly once before, when the 'Riders made the most significant personnel move in the franchise's recent history. That is, until today, when they apparently decided they'd had enough of a Grey Cup-calibre quarterback.
But while I've seen plenty of criticism of the reported trade sending Kerry Joseph to Toronto for Glenn January, Ronald Flemons and draft picks, it looks to me like the deal is even worse than it would seem on the surface.
I'll note first that I haven't seem much discussion of the alternative which Eric Tillman seems to have rejected: namely, giving Joseph a contract extension for the kind of money he's looking for (which I presume to be in the 300-400K range).
Based on the CFL's salary management system, that is a lot of money to put into a single player. But KJ may be one of the few players in the league who's more than worth it - even at age 34.
To see why, it's worth drawing a distinction between young player's skills and old player's skills, as others have done (for example) in baseball. Even at 34, Joseph's speed was better than any other CFL starting QB, and his arm strength well within range of anybody other than Michael Bishop. Which means that his athletic gifts - or "young player's skills" - still figure to be well above average for a long time to come.
Meanwhile, unlike most quarterbacks his age, there's still some realistic prospect of improvement in the "old player's skills" category (particularly in throwing accuracy, and possibly somewhat in decision-making as well) due to Joseph's relative inexperience at the position. Which means that Joseph could easily be a better player in the next five years than he was in the last five - making a long-term contract a positive prospect rather than a negative one.
Let's accept, though, that Joseph might have left the 'Riders after the 2008 season rather than re-upping. Even then, I'd argue that the smart play would have been to keep him around to finish up his contract.
After all, Tillman did recently acquire a quarterback with a profile relatively similar to Joseph's in Steven Jyles. But there doesn't seem to be much indication that Jyles is ready to start just yet, due to both accuracy and interception issues. And a year of mentoring from the prototype for his style of play would seem to significantly improve Jyles' chances of evolving into a CFL starter for 2009.
Which means that by keeping Joseph, the 'Riders would have not only maintained a better chance of winning in '08, but also enjoyed a greater likelihood of developing an impact starter for the longer term.
In Joseph's absence, the 'Riders' presumptive QB is now Marcus Crandell, who doesn't offer anything close to KJ's athletic ability. With the team now unable to rely on Joseph to stretch out plays and spread the defence, the entire offence will need to adjust to having less time and space to work with - likely making the jobs of every offensive player more difficult. And since Crandell will need to try to outguess defences rather than being able to create space, the 'Riders figure to be far worse off in the turnover department as well, making the defence's job more difficult too.
Needless to say, the 'Riders did get some talent in return. But I don't see the new acquisitions taking any of the edge off the deal: Flemons figures at best to challenge Kitwana Jones to take over Fred Perry's lineup spot, January doesn't figure to be much of a long-term improvement on the better of Steve Morley or Chris Best, and the draft picks are at best lottery tickets for the long term.
Of course, Eric Tillman has pleasantly surprised with some odd-looking moves before - e.g. bringing in a dozen qualified receivers to last year's camp while Gainer looked to have a shot at a backup RB spot, then reversing that positional imbalance by the middle of the season.
But while Tillman has shown plenty of ingenuity in pulling extra backs and receivers out of thin air, it's far harder to find a QB with enough skill and experience to lead a team to the top of the league. And it looks like Tillman just gave away what may have been the least replaceable player in the CFL for exactly the kind of fungible assets he should have been able to track down elsewhere.
But while I've seen plenty of criticism of the reported trade sending Kerry Joseph to Toronto for Glenn January, Ronald Flemons and draft picks, it looks to me like the deal is even worse than it would seem on the surface.
I'll note first that I haven't seem much discussion of the alternative which Eric Tillman seems to have rejected: namely, giving Joseph a contract extension for the kind of money he's looking for (which I presume to be in the 300-400K range).
Based on the CFL's salary management system, that is a lot of money to put into a single player. But KJ may be one of the few players in the league who's more than worth it - even at age 34.
To see why, it's worth drawing a distinction between young player's skills and old player's skills, as others have done (for example) in baseball. Even at 34, Joseph's speed was better than any other CFL starting QB, and his arm strength well within range of anybody other than Michael Bishop. Which means that his athletic gifts - or "young player's skills" - still figure to be well above average for a long time to come.
Meanwhile, unlike most quarterbacks his age, there's still some realistic prospect of improvement in the "old player's skills" category (particularly in throwing accuracy, and possibly somewhat in decision-making as well) due to Joseph's relative inexperience at the position. Which means that Joseph could easily be a better player in the next five years than he was in the last five - making a long-term contract a positive prospect rather than a negative one.
Let's accept, though, that Joseph might have left the 'Riders after the 2008 season rather than re-upping. Even then, I'd argue that the smart play would have been to keep him around to finish up his contract.
After all, Tillman did recently acquire a quarterback with a profile relatively similar to Joseph's in Steven Jyles. But there doesn't seem to be much indication that Jyles is ready to start just yet, due to both accuracy and interception issues. And a year of mentoring from the prototype for his style of play would seem to significantly improve Jyles' chances of evolving into a CFL starter for 2009.
Which means that by keeping Joseph, the 'Riders would have not only maintained a better chance of winning in '08, but also enjoyed a greater likelihood of developing an impact starter for the longer term.
In Joseph's absence, the 'Riders' presumptive QB is now Marcus Crandell, who doesn't offer anything close to KJ's athletic ability. With the team now unable to rely on Joseph to stretch out plays and spread the defence, the entire offence will need to adjust to having less time and space to work with - likely making the jobs of every offensive player more difficult. And since Crandell will need to try to outguess defences rather than being able to create space, the 'Riders figure to be far worse off in the turnover department as well, making the defence's job more difficult too.
Needless to say, the 'Riders did get some talent in return. But I don't see the new acquisitions taking any of the edge off the deal: Flemons figures at best to challenge Kitwana Jones to take over Fred Perry's lineup spot, January doesn't figure to be much of a long-term improvement on the better of Steve Morley or Chris Best, and the draft picks are at best lottery tickets for the long term.
Of course, Eric Tillman has pleasantly surprised with some odd-looking moves before - e.g. bringing in a dozen qualified receivers to last year's camp while Gainer looked to have a shot at a backup RB spot, then reversing that positional imbalance by the middle of the season.
But while Tillman has shown plenty of ingenuity in pulling extra backs and receivers out of thin air, it's far harder to find a QB with enough skill and experience to lead a team to the top of the league. And it looks like Tillman just gave away what may have been the least replaceable player in the CFL for exactly the kind of fungible assets he should have been able to track down elsewhere.
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