Well-positioned

Chantal Hebert discusses the NDP's strategy to parlay Jack Layton's personal popularity and the party's stance on Afghanistan into votes and seats in the upcoming Quebec by-elections:

According to Decima's Bruce Anderson, more voters say that their opinion of NDP Leader Jack Layton is improving than fading, a distinction he shares only with Green Leader Elizabeth May these days.

That is particularly true in Quebec where Layton now ranks second to the Bloc Québécois' Gilles Duceppe.

This summer, Layton will attempt to parlay that personal appreciation into votes for the NDP by turning three soon-to-be-called Quebec by-elections into a mini-referendum on the Afghan mission. Over the course of a news conference (scheduled before the latest casualties in Afghanistan came to light), Layton made his intentions crystal clear Wednesday. And he reiterated his call for bringing the troops home before Canada's current commitment to NATO ends in February 2009.

The NDP seized on the Afghan issue last summer in part to stake distinct ground from the surging Green party. To this day, its position also sets it apart from the bulk of Quebec's establishment...

This may be a case where Quebec's sovereignist and federalist tenors are out of synch with mainstream voters. Or it could be that the 70 per cent of Quebecers who tell pollsters they oppose the mission are answering a black-and-white question that leaves no room for nuances. The by-elections will provide part of the answer.

Of course, no political strategy with any realistic chance of success figures to go unopposed for long. And even the first steps in the NDP's effort to discuss Afghanistan have resulted in plenty of backlash from media figures and bloggers alike, who have been eager to throw reality out the window to claim that Layton's already-scheduled announcement was somehow a reaction to the forthcoming news of more Canadian casualties.

But while it remains to be seen how the situation changes as the attacks on Layton become ever more shrill, for now all indications are that Layton is both gaining respect from voters, and positioned on the right side of Quebec public opinion. And as Hebert notes, the NDP's stance figures to have positive effects both for the NDP as a party, and for Canada's internal debate about Afghanistan in general.