On mixed messages

CSR points out some interesting comments from Jean-Pierre Blackburn on the Cons' plans surrounding Canada's combat role in Afghanistan. But there are a couple of additional points worth discussing within Blackburn's message.

First, as CSR notes, Blackburn's quoted passages suggest that the Cons are planning for an extension vote in February 2008. And that would likely be the time where the Cons would most likely manage to eke out a majority vote for an extension.

But there's little reason to think the opposition parties will want to play along by abandoning the issue in the meantime. After all, with the Van Doos headed to Kandahar before long, this fall figures to be the time when the Cons can be portrayed as most out of step with the desires of Quebeckers in particular and Canadians concerned about the mission in general.

While the opposition parties unfortunately let their Afghanistan motions this spring get sidetracked, it seems entirely likely that they'll be able to agree on a motion this fall when the result is to leave the Cons defending continued involvement when public opinion is most strongly against that position. And a united opposition vote against any extension in 2007 would make the Cons look like sore losers at best if they tried to reverse that outcome in 2008.

Meanwhile, Blackburn's comments also retreat noticeably from Deceivin' Stephen's recent talk of a "consensus". Instead of continuing with the idea that a relatively united stance among multiple parties would be needed, Blackburn's message is based on the premise that the Cons' planned "vote" will determine whether or not any extension is approved as a "choice of the House of Commons".

Of course, it could be that the Cons are simply trying to send different messages to different audiences. But it also seems entirely possible that Harper's initial comment was simply a trial balloon to test whether Canadian pundits were prepared to play the same cheerleader role played by their counterparts to the south. And if so, Blackburn's change of pace may reflect an attempt to change course now that the "consensus" comment has instead come to be interpreted as evidence that Canada's combat role will end in 2009.