On ill-conceived alliances

There's been plenty of discussion today about Harper's efforts to build links with his ideological soulmates on the provincial level. It's hard to dispute Harper's apparent intention based on his record in office so far. But there's plenty of reason to think that all the right-wing parties involved have plenty to lose in tying their fates together.

For the provincial downside, consider Murray Mandryk's take on the risks to the Saskatchewan Party:

(W)hile it might seem to make political sense to hitch your wagon to a federal government that's now slashing sales and corporate taxes and handing out cheques to young mothers, there's an inherent danger in this strategy.

It has to do with the fact that Ottawa's interests are seldom aligned with Saskatchewan's interests for very long...

(I)f the Saskatchewan Party is shifting its allegiance to the interests of the Conservative party rather than the interests of the people of Saskatchewan, it's not a very smart move.

Mandryk goes into some detail about the Sask Party's sudden willingness to accept Con actions now which it actively criticized when the Libs were in power. And that should provide rich fodder for the NDP in the next provincial election, as it'll have plenty of examples of how the Sask Party's determination to stand up for the province apparently ends on Harper's command.

Likewise in Ontario, Harper's strategy seems to rely on voters being utterly ignorant as to who it was that put the screws to McGuinty's government. But it's just as likely that McGuinty will strengthen his position by tying Tory to Harper's cuts, and thereby win an election which might otherwise have eluded his grasp.

The situation may be different in other provinces where Harper may be seen more as giving in to provincial demands than forcing provincial parties to get in line with his policies. But in both of the apparent leading examples (Quebec and B.C.), that seems likely to be a losing cause at this point. And again, there's always a risk that association with the federal Cons will only be a weight on the chances of Campbell and Charest once Harper's honeymoon period is over.

Meanwhile, there's a serious danger to Harper as well. I'm not sure how far the same phenomenon goes in other regions, but it's fairly well understood that in the Western provinces aside from Alberta, a party which governs at the provincial level tends to be seen with suspicion at the federal level. (See the history of the B.C. NDP, passim.) Which could mean that if Harper is indeed successful in winning power for his provincial counterparts, he may only succeed in making his government more vulnerable in the next federal election as voters seek a counterbalance to more conservative provincial governments.

It's anybody's guess as to how Harper's strategy will work out, and of course the Bush example might suggest the upsides of a nationwide bloc outweigh the downsides. But at this point, Harper seems a lot more stubborn than savvy in his effort to select Canada's premiers...and it may not be long before a lot of parties regret the associations.