First priorities

Greg at Sinister Thoughts tells Jack Layton that now is the time to go on the road to reclaim the populist vote. I certainly agree with the general theme, but I do disagree as to where Layton's first priority should lie. While the Prairies will certainly be a battleground for next election, the aftermath of Harper's budget seems to be the perfect opportunity to make some waves in Quebec - and it's time to strike while the iron is hot.

After all, Gilles Duceppe's immediate acceptance of the Cons' budget suggests that the Bloc's hatred of the federal government far outweighs any commitment to progressive policies, whether Kyoto or otherwise...and it's likely that some of the voters who have supported the Bloc in the past would at least reverse those priorities. Meanwhile, the Libs are plainly too busy sorting out their internal mess to regain much ground in Quebec - and thanks to their track record, they don't have a much better starting point than the NDP. The Cons may well be the only other party in a position to try to make gains as a result of the budget, but that will only create a greater need for a party capable of demanding more from its government than random tax handouts.

The end result is that the door is wide open for Layton to win support among both the unions who have backed the Bloc as a progressive voice, and Quebec voters generally who see the federal government as able to do more than just buy votes through tax credits. And it's hard to see how the opportunity will ever be better than now.

On the Prairies, in contrast, the Libs have much less chance of reorganizing into a strong position in the immediate future, and the Cons will look even worse once their lack of support has time to settle in. Which means that the opportunity to win back Prairie support will be at least as good, and perhaps better, in the few months before the next election.

With a concerted effort to win new Quebec troops to its side now, the NDP may well be able to collect enough support to start winning seats in La Belle Province next time the country goes to the polls...which of course is a precondition to any chance of forming government a couple of elections down the road. And that kind of upside more than justifies making the Prairies only the second stop on Layton's populist journey.