Friday, January 20, 2006

On the virtues of leaders

The latest SES poll is good enough news for the NDP in terms of the party numbers. But for the even more important development, take a look at the leaders' numbers in the poll - which are supposed to be a fairly reliable indicator of future party numbers.

For Best Prime Minister, PMPM (who has been as high as 33%) is now down to 21% and falling, while Layton (who has been as low as 9%) is now at 18% and rising. Or to put it another way: the incumbent PM, who was PM-in-waiting for a decade before that, is now three points ahead of a man who in the debate less than two weeks ago wouldn't admit to aspiring to move into 24 Sussex Drive. And less voters list themselves as "unsure" than at any other time during the campaign.

Harper's 31% seems to have the Cons well-positioned to win government. But on the likely opposition side, all the momentum is with Layton.

Need more? Check out the leadership indicators, where Layton has (just barely) passed Martin for the first time, 59 points to 58 (Harper is at 75). That's thanks in large part to Martin's woeful 14% trust score, which ranks him in 4th place behind Harper (26%), Layton (23%), and "none of the above" (18%). And that score can't bode well for any chance of recovery: if Canadians trust Martin that little now, there isn't much reason to think that voters will believe PMPM's latest claim that only he stands between Canada and certain doom.

Which means that even voters who believe that the Libs are just as progressive as the NDP have reason to think that PMPM is well past being able to claw his way back into the race. Both the Libs and the NDP have plenty of momentum - but it's Layton's party that's headed in the right direction, leaving only the question of how far the NDP can go in the next few days.

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