It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing

While the base numbers in the latest Strategic Counsel poll don't reflect much change, there's one particularly interesting development underlying the party numbers:

Mr. Gregg said the NDP has grown in support among women voters over the last week. The party of Jack Layton is now supported by 23-per cent of female respondents, up from 16-per cent a week ago.

Mr. Gregg said the NDP is growing at the expense of the Conservative Party in British Columbia. In the Greater Toronto Area, he said, the NDP is stealing some support from the Liberals as progressive voters are trying to find the best way to prevent the formation of a Harper government.

So what's so significant about the numbers among female voters? A couple of weeks back, I discussed a Decima review of the undecided voters within its online survey which isolated various swing voters. The largest swing, representing 8% of all voters, was the following:

Those torn between the Liberals and NDP were more likely to be female, aged 35-54 and members of a visible minority. They tended to think the Liberals were the best choice to govern and that Martin was the best choice for prime minister. However, they also tended to think the NDP had the best approach to issues they care about most.

So what's happened in the time since then? Martin's PM ratings have tanked, removing the main advantage for the Libs within this group. And at the same time, the NDP has won over a significant chunk of female voters. Which tends both to support Decima's identification of the swing group - and to suggest that there's been serious movement toward the NDP within the group.

What about the Con/NDP swing vote? The article on the Decima survey didn't mention the most common characteristics within this group, but at least some voters must also have swung toward the NDP within the group to explain the size of the increase in female support for the party.

More interestingly, it's just yesterday that the NDP's Women's Caucus highlighted the elements of the NDP platform geared toward gender equality...and that fact wouldn't have been picked up by the Strategic Counsel poll. Which suggests that the NDP's existing inroads among undecided female voters may be only the beginning. To the extent that some groups have been concerned about the lack of focus on women's issues within the campaign, there's thus all the more room for the NDP to win the nod of even more swing voters just in time for election day.