No, there isn't any change in this week's rankings compare to last week's positioning. But I'll post nonetheless to discuss how the candidates performed in today's debate, and how that looks to set up the balance of the campaign.
1. Jagmeet Singh (1)
While some different metrics continue to point in various directions, all candidates seem to be operating based on the premise that Singh is ahead of the pack at this point. And today, he was able both to respond to other candidates' challenges when they arose, and to find some useful contrasts against Charlie Angus as the strongest apparent competitor. (Most notably, a stronger position on harm reduction and decriminalization than Angus was willing to offer may help Singh to win down-ballot support.)
The one possible misfire on Singh's part was a closing statement oriented solely toward identifying target regions - which seems unlikely to be new to anybody already leaning his way, while raising more questions than answers with voters looking for a core message based on principle rather than political calculation.
2. Charlie Angus (2)
That makes for a particularly unhelpful contrast in light of Angus' closing statement, which capped an effective overall performance with a strong message about his motivations and values.
Angus carried out an ideal strategy for a second-place contender looking to both extend the campaign by challenging the front-runner, and ensure that he doesn't get overtaken from behind. And in particular, conciliatory themes toward both Guy Caron and Niki Ashton may help to limit the prospect that they or their supporters will decide to reject both frontrunners.
3. Guy Caron (3)
Once again, the main basis for my ranking between the remaining two candidates is Caron's room for growth on later ballots. There 's at least a foreseeable path to victory based on the other candidates' apparent bases of support if Caron is perceived as the most progressive remaining option to Ashton voters choosing among the other three candidates, then the more grassroots-friendly option to Angus supporters on a final ballot against Singh.
4. Niki Ashton (4)
Finally, the key late-campaign problems for Ashton are minimal public growth at a point when all of the other candidates can claim substantially more public momentum, and the lack of a clear path to appeal for final-ballot support against either Singh or Angus. And while I'd still consider her a relative favourite to claim third place on the first ballot, it's looking more plausible that Caron may be able to pass her on that front.
Showing posts with label leadership 2017 candidate rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label leadership 2017 candidate rankings. Show all posts
Sunday, September 10, 2017
Sunday, September 03, 2017
Leadership 2017 Candidate Rankings - September 3
The major development since last week has of course been the release of the NDP's national membership numbers. And as would have been expected, they lead to a change at the top - though it's worth putting their impact into perspective rather than taking every sign-up as an automatic vote.
1. Jagmeet Singh (2)
While Singh's claim to have signed up 47,000 members has given rise to some controversy, much of the issue seems to come from some confusion as to who's included in that number. In particular, it's highly likely that a substantial number of Singh's counted memberships consisted of renewals rather than first-time supporters - which couldn't necessarily be seen as separate from the pools of voters who have already been polled as known members.
But while those voters might not be as solidly in Singh's camp as people signing up for the express purpose of supporting him, it's still noteworthy that a candidate who got off to a late start seems to have managed to perform that strongly even in the renewal category where some low-hanging fruit would have been available to candidates starting early. And a campaign apparatus capable of achieving that looks to be at a huge advantage in maintaining and converting support once the voting window opens.
2. Charlie Angus (1)
Meanwhile, Angus' drop is due solely to Singh's strong showing in the membership numbers. But if Angus now looks likely to be substantially behind Singh on the first ballot, he'll have some work to do in establishing himself as the preferred final-ballot choice for supporters of the remaining candidates.
3. Guy Caron (3)
Caron holds his position thanks to another strong week in terms of both endorsements, and setting the terms of the campaign debate. But there still looks to be a long way for him to go in trying to reach a final ballot - and while Caron's position on Quebec's Bill 62 may have succeeded in attracting some positive attention, it will also offer a strong basis for contrast if he is one of the last two candidates standing.
4. Niki Ashton (4)
Finally, Ashton also stays in place in the absence of any significant change from the previous week. But as noted here, she may have an opportunity to demonstrate that her movement-building strategy has progressed further than might be obvious from the leadership campaign so far.
1. Jagmeet Singh (2)
While Singh's claim to have signed up 47,000 members has given rise to some controversy, much of the issue seems to come from some confusion as to who's included in that number. In particular, it's highly likely that a substantial number of Singh's counted memberships consisted of renewals rather than first-time supporters - which couldn't necessarily be seen as separate from the pools of voters who have already been polled as known members.
But while those voters might not be as solidly in Singh's camp as people signing up for the express purpose of supporting him, it's still noteworthy that a candidate who got off to a late start seems to have managed to perform that strongly even in the renewal category where some low-hanging fruit would have been available to candidates starting early. And a campaign apparatus capable of achieving that looks to be at a huge advantage in maintaining and converting support once the voting window opens.
2. Charlie Angus (1)
Meanwhile, Angus' drop is due solely to Singh's strong showing in the membership numbers. But if Angus now looks likely to be substantially behind Singh on the first ballot, he'll have some work to do in establishing himself as the preferred final-ballot choice for supporters of the remaining candidates.
3. Guy Caron (3)
Caron holds his position thanks to another strong week in terms of both endorsements, and setting the terms of the campaign debate. But there still looks to be a long way for him to go in trying to reach a final ballot - and while Caron's position on Quebec's Bill 62 may have succeeded in attracting some positive attention, it will also offer a strong basis for contrast if he is one of the last two candidates standing.
4. Niki Ashton (4)
Finally, Ashton also stays in place in the absence of any significant change from the previous week. But as noted here, she may have an opportunity to demonstrate that her movement-building strategy has progressed further than might be obvious from the leadership campaign so far.
Sunday, August 27, 2017
Leadership 2017 Candidate Rankings - August 27
We'll have to wait until next week to learn about the final membership count for the federal NDP's leadership campaign. But today's Montreal debate and other developments result in one shift in the rankings - while an opportunity for another one has been lost for now.
1. Charlie Angus (1)
While the other three candidates spent a substantial amount of time on Guy Caron's Quebec strategy (including a brief media flare-up over Bill 62 and religious freedom), Angus's response in both the debate and the media was to provide the most succinct answer possible while two of his competitors struggled to find their footing.
That success in navigating a tricky issue, combined with a fairly strong showing in the final French-language debate, helps to keep him at the front of the pack for now. But again, the relative position of Angus and Singh by this time next week will be determined in no small part by the membership numbers.
2. Jagmeet Singh (2)
In contrast to Angus, Singh took some time to respond to Caron - making for the second time Singh has been conspicuously slow to address a key issue. But once he spoke out publicly, his initial position seemed to offer a distinct and powerful alternative: while Caron's positioning ultimately focuses on jurisdictional deference over (or at least parallel to) correctness in principle, Singh offered a strong stand as to the importance of not disproportionately attacking minorities.
But if his debate message on the same issue didn't specifically backtrack on his public statement, it also failed to highlight what could have been an important contrast not only for him, but for the party's overall debate. And that represents a missed opportunity for Singh to turn the tables on Caron and Ashton in putting principle ahead of political calculation on a hot-button issue.
3. Guy Caron (4)
Caron made some progress in a crucial week for his campaign - both in again setting the agenda with his own proposals, and in outdebating his competitors on his home turf. But while he was the most comfortable candidate in today's debate by far, I'm not sure he was quite convincing enough to start the type of shift he needs in member support.
The end result is that Caron moves ahead of Ashton for now - based less on their likely first-choice support than on his growth potential if he lasts past the first ballot.
4. Niki Ashton (3)
Finally, Ashton drops to the bottom of the rankings due to two unforced errors: one involving her questionably wading into Manitoba's provincial leadership campaign, the other her muddled response to religious accommodation and Quebec's culture.
Those new problems only seem to echo a few earlier faux pas which similarly created negative impressions of Ashton - whether based on disagreement on the merits, or simply matters of political judgment. And I'd expect that growing narrative be a significant hurdle as she tries to win support beyond her initial base.
1. Charlie Angus (1)
While the other three candidates spent a substantial amount of time on Guy Caron's Quebec strategy (including a brief media flare-up over Bill 62 and religious freedom), Angus's response in both the debate and the media was to provide the most succinct answer possible while two of his competitors struggled to find their footing.
That success in navigating a tricky issue, combined with a fairly strong showing in the final French-language debate, helps to keep him at the front of the pack for now. But again, the relative position of Angus and Singh by this time next week will be determined in no small part by the membership numbers.
2. Jagmeet Singh (2)
In contrast to Angus, Singh took some time to respond to Caron - making for the second time Singh has been conspicuously slow to address a key issue. But once he spoke out publicly, his initial position seemed to offer a distinct and powerful alternative: while Caron's positioning ultimately focuses on jurisdictional deference over (or at least parallel to) correctness in principle, Singh offered a strong stand as to the importance of not disproportionately attacking minorities.
But if his debate message on the same issue didn't specifically backtrack on his public statement, it also failed to highlight what could have been an important contrast not only for him, but for the party's overall debate. And that represents a missed opportunity for Singh to turn the tables on Caron and Ashton in putting principle ahead of political calculation on a hot-button issue.
3. Guy Caron (4)
Caron made some progress in a crucial week for his campaign - both in again setting the agenda with his own proposals, and in outdebating his competitors on his home turf. But while he was the most comfortable candidate in today's debate by far, I'm not sure he was quite convincing enough to start the type of shift he needs in member support.
The end result is that Caron moves ahead of Ashton for now - based less on their likely first-choice support than on his growth potential if he lasts past the first ballot.
4. Niki Ashton (3)
Finally, Ashton drops to the bottom of the rankings due to two unforced errors: one involving her questionably wading into Manitoba's provincial leadership campaign, the other her muddled response to religious accommodation and Quebec's culture.
Those new problems only seem to echo a few earlier faux pas which similarly created negative impressions of Ashton - whether based on disagreement on the merits, or simply matters of political judgment. And I'd expect that growing narrative be a significant hurdle as she tries to win support beyond her initial base.
Sunday, August 13, 2017
Leadership 2017 Candidate Rankings - August 13
As I noted here, there have been a number of key developments in the NDP's leadership campaign since last week's rankings. And two in particular have changed my impression as to the relative likelihood of success for the top two candidates, I'll assemble a new set of rankings for this week - while noting that the membership numbers available after Thursday's deadline will likely give us a far better idea where the campaign is headed.
1. Charlie Angus (2)
Angus takes the lead this week for two reasons.
First, the latest Mainstreet poll shows him breaking away from the pack among at its subset of self-identified NDP members. And however much uncertainty there is in trying to assess whether a pollster is reaching the right people, it's certainly worth noting the relative change showing Angus increasing both his percentage support and his lead within a pool that's been polled before.
And second, his broad set of labour endorsements looks significant in a couple of ways. The perception that Angus is the preferred candidate for well-known labour voices may sway a few more voters into his camp early. But perhaps more importantly, but it also offers Angus some validation as a down-ballot option for Ashton and Caron supporters with labour roots.
2. Jagmeet Singh (1)
To be clear, though, there are limitations to how much we can take from any one poll. And while Mainstreet's results contribute to the swap of positions between Angus and Singh, I'd see it as a severe overreaction to put too much stock in Singh's relative placement compared to the other candidates.
That said, this week's membership totals will give us a much better indication whether Singh has assembled enough new supporters to justify the media attention his campaign has been able to secure, or whether we should be taking a much closer look at the prospect of an Angus-Ashton final ballot.
3. Niki Ashton (3)
Meanwhile, the poll results - combined with a lack of other new developments - do serve to lock in the relative positioning of Ashton and Caron for the moment. And while Ashton's campaign figures to be making a strong membership push of its own, it may soon need to reorient itself toward laying the groundwork to build support between ballots.
4. Guy Caron (4)
Finally, Caron remains a credible contender if he can get over the first hurdle of staying on the ballot. And given the importance of building first-choice support among existing members, I'd expect him to push particularly hard to win over Quebec MPs - including those who formerly supported Peter Julian - to persuade current members to decide based on their impressions as to the NDP's prospects in his home province.
Update: Tom Parkin reaches a similar conclusion as to the relative positioning of Angus and Singh, while also discussing the state of the campaign as the membership deadline approaches.
1. Charlie Angus (2)
Angus takes the lead this week for two reasons.
First, the latest Mainstreet poll shows him breaking away from the pack among at its subset of self-identified NDP members. And however much uncertainty there is in trying to assess whether a pollster is reaching the right people, it's certainly worth noting the relative change showing Angus increasing both his percentage support and his lead within a pool that's been polled before.
And second, his broad set of labour endorsements looks significant in a couple of ways. The perception that Angus is the preferred candidate for well-known labour voices may sway a few more voters into his camp early. But perhaps more importantly, but it also offers Angus some validation as a down-ballot option for Ashton and Caron supporters with labour roots.
2. Jagmeet Singh (1)
To be clear, though, there are limitations to how much we can take from any one poll. And while Mainstreet's results contribute to the swap of positions between Angus and Singh, I'd see it as a severe overreaction to put too much stock in Singh's relative placement compared to the other candidates.
That said, this week's membership totals will give us a much better indication whether Singh has assembled enough new supporters to justify the media attention his campaign has been able to secure, or whether we should be taking a much closer look at the prospect of an Angus-Ashton final ballot.
3. Niki Ashton (3)
Meanwhile, the poll results - combined with a lack of other new developments - do serve to lock in the relative positioning of Ashton and Caron for the moment. And while Ashton's campaign figures to be making a strong membership push of its own, it may soon need to reorient itself toward laying the groundwork to build support between ballots.
4. Guy Caron (4)
Finally, Caron remains a credible contender if he can get over the first hurdle of staying on the ballot. And given the importance of building first-choice support among existing members, I'd expect him to push particularly hard to win over Quebec MPs - including those who formerly supported Peter Julian - to persuade current members to decide based on their impressions as to the NDP's prospects in his home province.
Update: Tom Parkin reaches a similar conclusion as to the relative positioning of Angus and Singh, while also discussing the state of the campaign as the membership deadline approaches.
Sunday, August 06, 2017
Leadership 2017 Candidate Rankings - August 6
I've thus far held off on doing candidate rankings for the federal NDP leadership campaign - and may not end up updating them weekly as I have in past campaigns. But for now, let's put together a first set - as always, intended to reflect my impressions as to the relative likelihood of each candidate winning the leadership election (and not my own preferences between them).
I'll note as well that while the voting process is a new one for the NDP, the campaigns will need to consider how it will affect their choices as we approach the voting period.
My suspicion is that most members will again submit a full preferential ballot during the first voting window. So any inclination for one candidate's supporters to systematically support another will be an important consideration.
But the time between ballots will also give candidates far more opportunity to persuade possible down-ballot supporters than existed in previous campaigns. A candidate will obviously be better off with enough organization resources to identify and reach specific target voters, but the increased media attention between rounds of voting will give whoever's on the ballot some chance to reach undecided voters.
And so at this point, each of the candidates seems to have a plausible path to victory. But here's where I see the candidates standing for now...
1. Jagmeet Singh
I have my doubts that the candidates' vote totals will necessarily map as closely to fund-raising as they have in the past. But Singh's massive advantage in that department (along with his campaign organization) looks to signal both a strong first-ballot showing, and the ability to reach voters if multiple ballots are needed.
The crucial variable for Singh thus figures to be the presence of a pool of persuadable voters to make up any difference between his first-ballot results and a majority of voters. And he has made a smart move on that front by speaking positively of Guy Caron's economic plan, positioning himself as an alternative option for policy-oriented members.
2. Charlie Angus
Angus is the other front-runner for the moment, ranking near the top in every poll and fund-raising list. And his combination of stature within the NDP and comfort in a campaign setting makes him a plausible magnet for enough down-ballot support to emerge victorious if he's within striking distance to start with.
But it's not certain that Angus will be able to convert as many votes as he needs to if he has a substantial gap to make up.
In particular, he's positioned himself as comparatively favourable toward pipelines, creating the possibility that environment-focused voters in other camps might drop him to the bottom of a list - or at least choose not to cast a later ballot for him. And while he's been able to win some Quebec support, his French doesn't look to have improved enough to persuade members who see the ability to persuade Quebec voters as a prerequisite for a national leader.
3. Niki Ashton
Assuming that Singh and Angus are indeed in front of the pack, Ashton and Caron face the twin challenges of trying to stay on the ballot against the other, while needing to win over a disproportionate share of the other's supporters in order to have some realistic prospect of challenging the front-runners.
The most obvious way for that to happen would be for the two to arrange a mutual support pact - which would need to be set up early enough to influence voters from the beginning of the voting period. But there's no indication the two are that closely aligned at this point.
That said, Ashton does look to be able to appeal to Caron voters on multiple fronts, including her presentation in Quebec and her orientation toward progressive economic policy. So her lead in past polling and fund-raising places her ahead of Caron for now.
On a final ballot, Ashton's rural roots and populist message would give her plenty in common with many of Angus' core supporters if she ends up matched up against Singh. And while she'd have a more difficult time finding useful approaches to voters if Singh were to drop off the ballot, she might be able to portray her movement politics as a match with Singh's growth message.
4. Guy Caron
Yet Caron too looks to have a reasonable prospect of running the table - particularly if he's able to get ahead of Ashton on the first ballot.
With Singh largely seen as the candidate of the NDP establishment and Angus positioning himself toward the centre of the spectrum, members who responded to Ashton's social-movement theme could plausibly line up behind Caron as a second option. And if Singh and Angus each spend the balance of the campaign challenging the other for position at the top of the ballot, Caron could well emerge as the preferred choice among supporters of whichever falls off the ballot first.
I'll note as well that while the voting process is a new one for the NDP, the campaigns will need to consider how it will affect their choices as we approach the voting period.
My suspicion is that most members will again submit a full preferential ballot during the first voting window. So any inclination for one candidate's supporters to systematically support another will be an important consideration.
But the time between ballots will also give candidates far more opportunity to persuade possible down-ballot supporters than existed in previous campaigns. A candidate will obviously be better off with enough organization resources to identify and reach specific target voters, but the increased media attention between rounds of voting will give whoever's on the ballot some chance to reach undecided voters.
And so at this point, each of the candidates seems to have a plausible path to victory. But here's where I see the candidates standing for now...
1. Jagmeet Singh
I have my doubts that the candidates' vote totals will necessarily map as closely to fund-raising as they have in the past. But Singh's massive advantage in that department (along with his campaign organization) looks to signal both a strong first-ballot showing, and the ability to reach voters if multiple ballots are needed.
The crucial variable for Singh thus figures to be the presence of a pool of persuadable voters to make up any difference between his first-ballot results and a majority of voters. And he has made a smart move on that front by speaking positively of Guy Caron's economic plan, positioning himself as an alternative option for policy-oriented members.
2. Charlie Angus
Angus is the other front-runner for the moment, ranking near the top in every poll and fund-raising list. And his combination of stature within the NDP and comfort in a campaign setting makes him a plausible magnet for enough down-ballot support to emerge victorious if he's within striking distance to start with.
But it's not certain that Angus will be able to convert as many votes as he needs to if he has a substantial gap to make up.
In particular, he's positioned himself as comparatively favourable toward pipelines, creating the possibility that environment-focused voters in other camps might drop him to the bottom of a list - or at least choose not to cast a later ballot for him. And while he's been able to win some Quebec support, his French doesn't look to have improved enough to persuade members who see the ability to persuade Quebec voters as a prerequisite for a national leader.
3. Niki Ashton
Assuming that Singh and Angus are indeed in front of the pack, Ashton and Caron face the twin challenges of trying to stay on the ballot against the other, while needing to win over a disproportionate share of the other's supporters in order to have some realistic prospect of challenging the front-runners.
The most obvious way for that to happen would be for the two to arrange a mutual support pact - which would need to be set up early enough to influence voters from the beginning of the voting period. But there's no indication the two are that closely aligned at this point.
That said, Ashton does look to be able to appeal to Caron voters on multiple fronts, including her presentation in Quebec and her orientation toward progressive economic policy. So her lead in past polling and fund-raising places her ahead of Caron for now.
On a final ballot, Ashton's rural roots and populist message would give her plenty in common with many of Angus' core supporters if she ends up matched up against Singh. And while she'd have a more difficult time finding useful approaches to voters if Singh were to drop off the ballot, she might be able to portray her movement politics as a match with Singh's growth message.
4. Guy Caron
Yet Caron too looks to have a reasonable prospect of running the table - particularly if he's able to get ahead of Ashton on the first ballot.
With Singh largely seen as the candidate of the NDP establishment and Angus positioning himself toward the centre of the spectrum, members who responded to Ashton's social-movement theme could plausibly line up behind Caron as a second option. And if Singh and Angus each spend the balance of the campaign challenging the other for position at the top of the ballot, Caron could well emerge as the preferred choice among supporters of whichever falls off the ballot first.
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