Leadership 2009 - Week in Review, April 12

For this week's review, let's quickly follow up on a couple of the points which I've tracked earlier in the campaign based on the Saskatchewan NDP leadership candidates' supporters on Facebook.

First up, the raw numbers (which of course should be taken with a grain of salt) look to be fairly similar to what they were last time I checked - though it's worth noting that most of the growth seems to have been among the two candidates who were already ahead of the pack. The standings are now:
Dwain Lingenfelter - 602 fans
Ryan Meili - 346 supporters
Yens Pedersen Campaign - 225 members
Deb Higgins - 71 supporters

Meanwhile, two of the possible endorsers I'd mentioned earlier have given an additional hint about their support through the Facebook groups. Angie Merasty, president of the ANDS, is included among Meili's supporters, while former MLA Graham Addley is now listed among Lingenfelter's fans. (In both cases, due credit to John in comments for including Merasty and Addley in those camps.)

All of which suggests that the dynamics of the campaign haven't changed all that much over the last month - at least when it comes to online support. And it'll definitely be interesting to see whether the impending leadership debates likewise serve mostly to amplify the momentum that most of the candidates seem to have carried throughout the campaign so far.

Advancement opportunities

For the past decade, the Saskatchewan NDP's narrow hold on provincial power has limited the prospect of successful MLAs making a move to the federal scene. But with the next provincial vote four years away and a seat or two no longer holding the potential to swing the provincial balance of power, the Hill Times reports that the federal NDP is now looking to bring current and former MLAs on board:

The federal NDP may try to woo former Saskatchewan premier Lorne Calvert, whose government was recently swept out of power, along with two of his defeated Cabinet ministers to run federally in the province in the next general election.

"Jack Layton hasn't closed any doors and we've not entered into any formal discussions with any Saskatchewan New Democrats, but it's certainly a possibility," said Brad Lavigne, director of communications and research to NDP caucus in an interview last week.

Mr. Lavigne confirmed, however, that the party is "likely to reach out to" Mr. Calvert and to two defeated provincial NDP Cabinet ministers–Lon Borgerson, former minister of regional economic and co-operative development, and Graham Addley, former minister of healthy living services, minister responsible for seniors, Investment Saskatchewan Inc. and information services corporation of Saskatchewan and convince them to run federally in the next federal election.

The article notes that there haven't been any concrete steps taken just yet. And barring some surprises on the provincial side, it does seem fairly unlikely that Calvert would make the move.

But the combination of an experienced candidate like Borgerson or Addley with an electorate which is relearning the pitfalls of right-wing government at two levels would seem to offer a great opportunity both for the federal NDP, and for the individual candidates. And if the NDP can start building momentum now in its longtime prairie stronghold, then it should be well-positioned to make a strong push at Con incumbents across Western Canada when the next election rolls around.