Hopeful signs

On Sunday, I posted this:

(T)he biggest reason why the Cons are in trouble now is that they've tried to re-fight the 2008 campaign while Canadians' preferences have changed in the meantime. And it would be downright tragic if Harper is able to win his desired majority thanks to progressive voters who make the same mistake.

And Alice is in the process of documenting just how many ridings saw "strategic" appeals go horribly awry - possibly leading to exactly that outcome.

But I'll take a moment to start a bit of a project of my own - for which I'll be glad for reader input. And that's to document the ridings where positive messages won out in the face of the dirtiest political tricks of the 2011 campaign.

So let's start with the first example I identified in pointing out the potential for just that result.

In Gatineau, NDP candidate Francoise Boivin was both publicly outed and smeared in an apparent effort to stop the NDP's progress in one of its longtime Quebec targets.

Boivin won by a tidy 46 points.

Dirty smears lost. Positive politics won.

[Edit: Fixed wording.]

Big Movements Beat Petty Politics

At the start of this week, the word from Ottawa's talking heads was that we were in for two more weeks of trench warfare: that none of Canada's political parties had any hope of moving the current polls or seat counts more than a couple of inches, and thus we could expect the campaign to get dirtier and less relevant as everybody struggled for marginal gains.

Fortunately, they've been proven wrong as to whether or not anything could change meaningfully. And it's well worth noting why.

Take, for example, the news surrounding star NDP candidate Francoise Boivin in Gatineau over the last week.

At the start of the week, Boivin found herself both publicly outed and smeared in the press - presumably the result of an opponent deciding that in what figured to be a close riding race, a misinformation campaign could well be enough to keep the seat in somebody else's hands.

Then, something happened.

The NDP started gaining momentum in Quebec, rising from the low 20s to the mid-20s to 36% in CROP's poll. And with those rising numbers, the situation in Gatineau also figures to have changed radically. One local poll taken some time ago showed Boivin ahead by a relatively small margin, but with the NDP's province-wide gains the seat looks to be on the verge of turning into a lock for Boivin. Which is why she found herself introducing the campaign's most exciting rally yet today - while her opponents have to be close to figuring their chances are evaporating.

And so, the effect of a positive province-wide movement looks to be dwarfing the damage done by dirtiest smear anybody has suffered so far this campaign.

So far, the phenomenon looks to be limited to Quebec. But for those lamenting the state of politics elsewhere in Canada, the answer looks to be much the same: a strong movement behind a party which is genuinely committed to positive change can overwhelm the marginal gains possible in a petty model of politics.

Now, the question is whether the NDP's momentum within Quebec will spread further - at best taking it into government, or offering the possibility a sharply increased seat total and/or official opposition status. Which would result in a radical realignment in Canadian politics on two fronts.

Yes, it would be a major gain for the NDP in the competition among parties. But equally significant would be the takeaway that it's worth a political party's time and effort to work on building mass movements, rather than merely sniping for swing votes on the margins. And the better the NDP is able to do at the polls by going big, the more that lesson figures to resonate in the rest of Canada's political scene.

Tuesday Morning Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading.

- While there's plenty of reason for optimism that the NDP can win enough seats to make change for the better, there should never be any illusion that politics as usual will go down without a fight. Today's sad examples: Dr. Dawg slams the Libs for outing star NDP candidate Francoise Boivin (in a move which will hopefully produce enough backlash to put Boivin over the top), while Rick points out that Bob Rae is once again serving as the Libs' designated spoiler in ridings where they'd apparently prefer to see Con incumbents hang on against strong NDP challengers.

- In what should be a bigger story than it seems to have become so far, Marco Fortier points out that the Cons have tossed aside any requirement for experience or competence in order to permit religious-based charities to receive large amounts of federal money.

- There's plenty of good news in the vote mobs which are working to get students and other young Canadians voting. But Susan Delacourt points out that as per usual, there's plenty of work being done by less positive actors to suppress turnout as well:

Valeriote also says that people with Liberal signs on their lawns have been getting visits from volunteers identifying themselves as Conservative campaign workers, who are warning these would-be Liberal voters that voting for Michael Ignatieff will result in handing control of the country to Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe.

Like Volpe, Valeriote is saying that this is all part of a voter-suppression effort. Green Party leader Elizabeth May talked about this at the Star's editorial-board meeting a couple of weeks ago -- the nasty tactics may not drive any votes toward a particular party, but instead, disgust people enough about politics that they simply stay away from the ballot box on May 2. Much of the Liberals' whole campaign this time has been focused on boosting turnout, so these 12-year-old-kid pranks could be a real problem.

Then again, it all does give average citizens a glimpse of what's become business as usual in Ottawa in recent years.

- And finally, Alison clarifies what the Cons mean in saying they're "Here for Canada".

- Update: Also, what Rick Mercer said:



- Update II: I didn't liveblog last night's Palliser forum due to a lack of wireless reception. But I'll point out that one of the most impressive parts of Noah Evanchuk's perfomance was his consistent stand to the effect that all voices - including those opposing him - should be heard at the forum and elsewhere.

Unfortunately, this fact check misses the mark on the same point in suggesting that it's somehow a failing for a couple of Libs to have not removed critical comments from their Facebook pages.

On microcosms

CanWest reports that Francoise Boivin's jump to the NDP is all but concluded. With that in mind, let's take a look at what it likely means for the parties in Gatineau - and what it may reflect in the wider Canadian political scene.

Contrary to the concerns of one commenter to this post, there's little apparent reason for concern that Boivin's move will lead to a three-way race which gives an advantage to the Bloc. After all, every indication is that the Libs' leadership had refused to confirm Boivin's candidacy on their behalf only because they were pinning their hopes on luring a star candidate to contest the riding - and refused to give up even after failing utterly in that task for over two years.

Needless to say, the Libs don't figure to have an easier time recruiting that hoped-for star now that the NDP has a top candidate in the race as well. Which means that the contest should instead become a two-party tilt between the NDP and the Bloc. And with Bloc MP Richard Nadeau unable to campaign against the Libs' record as he did in 2006, the seat looks to have a strong chance of changing hands.

What's perhaps more interesting than the Gatineau race itself, though, is the mirror image between Dion's treatment of Boivin personally, and the Libs' treatment of left-wing voices generally within their ranks.

The past couple of days have seen a flurry of progressive Libs slamming their party for doing much the same thing on a national scale: dithering and delaying in hope that some external force will push them into a winning situation, while half-heartedly stringing along their supporters who want to get something done within the current political reality. And while none of them have yet joined Boivin in actually switching allegiances as a result, it wouldn't be much of a surprise for some to conclude that they're better off supporting a party whose ability to push the progressive cause isn't limited by "nervous nellies" and institutional inertia.

Of course, it could be that the Libs will offer just enough hope to keep their current members in the fold awhile longer. But it's equally possible that Boivin will be just the first of many to realize that the Libs aren't worth waiting for. And the sooner others start to lose patience as well, the better the chances that the NDP will be in a position to stop Harper once the Libs can't avoid a trip to the polls.

On recruits

Over the last little while, the federal NDP has added plenty of interesting candidates in Quebec. But LeDroit reports on what looks to be a watershed moment in the party's candidate recruitment efforts, as former Liberal MP Francoise Boivin may soon announce her intention to run for the NDP in Gatineau.

Let's take a moment to note why the story is particularly significant. For all the NDP's success in finding star candidates in Quebec and elsewhere, those have normally consisted of new recruits into federal politics rather than former partisans from other parties (and in particular ones with a track record of electoral success) who have been persuaded to switch their affiliation.

Boivin, however, would make for a break from that pattern. In addition to having the name recognition within Gatineau that comes from having been a former MP (and having won 30+% of the vote even in defeat in 2006), she would set a precedent of a successful Lib publicly declaring that the NDP is better able to help Canada's progressive cause. And that would hopefully help to build momentum for others to similarly shift their allegiances.

We'll find out in the next week whether or not Boivin will complete the jump to the NDP. But either way, it's clear that the NDP is more than appealing enough to make at least one federal Lib standard-bearer take a serious look at joining its ranks. And that can only encourage voters to do the same when the next election comes around.