After two posts outlining possible candidates for the NDP's impending leadership race, I've thus far avoided mentioning the prospective candidate who's been on the receiving end of both media adulation and a blogger's plea to stay far, far away. So I'll take a moment to explain why Gary Doer doesn't currently rank among my possible contenders for the position.
While I don't entirely agree with Matt's take on Doer, I would see the concerns mentioned in his post resonating a fair bit among much of the party's progressive base - while Doer's apparently minimal French skills would leave him little prospect of winning much support in the province which offers the NDP's most obvious source of potential new members. And that combination excludes an awful lot of potential leadership voters from his list of possible targets.
Meanwhile, I don't see a lot of plausible areas of strength for Doer in the context of either the NDP's current membership, or the reasonable prospects for growth by next year. Yes, he has some union connections and could serve as a labour candidate, but he doesn't have much of an advantage on that front over plenty of other contenders. And while a Manitoba support base isn't a bad place to start in building a national coalition, I have serious doubts that Doer's name carries quite the same recognition and reputation that media insiders may think.
Granted, it is worth mentioning the "stalking horse" theory as the one possibility which might vault Doer to the leadership. If the talk of Brian Topp, Anne McGrath, Karl Belanger and others in Jack Layton's inner circle is indeed a cover for somebody who doesn't want to declare any intentions just yet but wants to keep some space open to declare a run later, then Doer is as plausible a beneficiary of that treatment as anybody. And the combination of Layton's machine with Doer's other sources of support might be enough to put the leadership within reach.
But even that scenario seems to me to fall far short of assuring Doer that he'd be more than one of several contenders for the title of NDP leader. Which means that he doesn't seem to have much reason to walk away from his current position - and that anybody looking for an outside knight in shining armor is probably best served looking elsewhere.
Showing posts with label gary doer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gary doer. Show all posts
Sunday, September 04, 2011
Saturday, August 29, 2009
On immediate impacts
There's plenty of speculation flying around as to the possible impact of Gary Doer's appointment as U.S. ambassador. But surprisingly, none of it seems to focus on the area which holds the most potential for Doer to either achieve something of importance despite the weaknesses of the government which appointed him, or permanently tarnish his image.
At the moment, much of Doer's reputation - both in terms of his policies as premier, and his connections built within the U.S. - is based on his having been one of the driving forces for progress in fighting climate change. And in particular, his work with the Western Climate Initiative has helped to set up the most promising means of getting around what was then complete recalcitrance at the federal level on both sides of the border.
Now, the playing field has changed: the U.S. administration looks to be trying to take a lead role on the issue, leaving Stephen Harper's government as the most determined to halt any international progress. And with the Copenhagen conference set to take place this fall, Doer's first couple of months on the job would seem to have potential to either create a path toward a deal, or undermine any hope of getting one signed.
How might Doer make a difference for the better? We know all too well that Harper is seldom one to listen to anybody who might challenge his orders. But there will be an obvious need for Doer to be in regular contact with Harper and his office in managing Canada's most important international relationship.
Which should create a significant opportunity: to the extent both the Obama administration and Doer himself see action on climate change as an integral part of the economic relationship between the two countries and make that message clear to Harper, it'll be awfully difficult for the Cons to justify their usual vocal opposition to a global deal which has U.S. backing. So Doer's appointment could lead to a joint effort by Canada and the U.S. to push toward agreement in Copenhagen rather than being the two main holdouts against international consensus.
In the long run, that would seem to make for the best outcome for everybody involved. And even Harper would seem to stand to benefit from being seen as willing to work toward international solutions rather than being just as petulant in the world as he is at home.
But then it's equally possible that Harper doesn't have any intention of moving from his usual position. In that case, Harper might well be hoping that Doer's previous credibility on the issue will reduce the U.S.' inclination to criticize Canada's position, and make him at least marginally more persuasive in spouting the same old lines about how we'll never agree to cut emissions until the developing world agrees not to develop.
Of course, few outside the tar sands (and their analogues around the world) figure to be particularly eager to see Canada successfully stand in the way of global agreement based on Doer's current profile. But Doer himself might well be the biggest loser if that's indeed Harper's strategy.
The initial surprise of having him suddenly lined up against any international agreement might well play a role in shaping the relative positions of Canada and the U.S. this fall, giving him at least some claim to have influenced global events (if contrary to the principles he's espoused during his public life so far). But the result once that initial impact wore off would be to undermine his own credibility on the issue - and the few friends he'd make in Harper's camp for sacrificing his good name to the interests of the oil companies would seem to be far outweighed by the current goodwill that he'd lose.
For now, we don't have much way of knowing exactly how much autonomy Doer will have as ambassador, and how much (if it all) Harper is willing to listen to him on climate change or on any other issue. But with Copenhagen just a few short months away, we may find out in a hurry whether any good will come of Doer's appointment, or whether Harper is simply looking for somebody else whose reputation can be thrown under the bus to further the Cons' agenda.
At the moment, much of Doer's reputation - both in terms of his policies as premier, and his connections built within the U.S. - is based on his having been one of the driving forces for progress in fighting climate change. And in particular, his work with the Western Climate Initiative has helped to set up the most promising means of getting around what was then complete recalcitrance at the federal level on both sides of the border.
Now, the playing field has changed: the U.S. administration looks to be trying to take a lead role on the issue, leaving Stephen Harper's government as the most determined to halt any international progress. And with the Copenhagen conference set to take place this fall, Doer's first couple of months on the job would seem to have potential to either create a path toward a deal, or undermine any hope of getting one signed.
How might Doer make a difference for the better? We know all too well that Harper is seldom one to listen to anybody who might challenge his orders. But there will be an obvious need for Doer to be in regular contact with Harper and his office in managing Canada's most important international relationship.
Which should create a significant opportunity: to the extent both the Obama administration and Doer himself see action on climate change as an integral part of the economic relationship between the two countries and make that message clear to Harper, it'll be awfully difficult for the Cons to justify their usual vocal opposition to a global deal which has U.S. backing. So Doer's appointment could lead to a joint effort by Canada and the U.S. to push toward agreement in Copenhagen rather than being the two main holdouts against international consensus.
In the long run, that would seem to make for the best outcome for everybody involved. And even Harper would seem to stand to benefit from being seen as willing to work toward international solutions rather than being just as petulant in the world as he is at home.
But then it's equally possible that Harper doesn't have any intention of moving from his usual position. In that case, Harper might well be hoping that Doer's previous credibility on the issue will reduce the U.S.' inclination to criticize Canada's position, and make him at least marginally more persuasive in spouting the same old lines about how we'll never agree to cut emissions until the developing world agrees not to develop.
Of course, few outside the tar sands (and their analogues around the world) figure to be particularly eager to see Canada successfully stand in the way of global agreement based on Doer's current profile. But Doer himself might well be the biggest loser if that's indeed Harper's strategy.
The initial surprise of having him suddenly lined up against any international agreement might well play a role in shaping the relative positions of Canada and the U.S. this fall, giving him at least some claim to have influenced global events (if contrary to the principles he's espoused during his public life so far). But the result once that initial impact wore off would be to undermine his own credibility on the issue - and the few friends he'd make in Harper's camp for sacrificing his good name to the interests of the oil companies would seem to be far outweighed by the current goodwill that he'd lose.
For now, we don't have much way of knowing exactly how much autonomy Doer will have as ambassador, and how much (if it all) Harper is willing to listen to him on climate change or on any other issue. But with Copenhagen just a few short months away, we may find out in a hurry whether any good will come of Doer's appointment, or whether Harper is simply looking for somebody else whose reputation can be thrown under the bus to further the Cons' agenda.
Friday, August 28, 2009
On diplomacy
Following up on last night's post, one would have to figure that any chance of Gary Doer looking to take any major new steps in his last months as premier would be ruled out by his expected appointment as U.S. ambassador. But it'll definitely be worth watching what happens once he actually takes up that post.
From what I can tell, while the Harper government has sought the occasional "bipartisan" cover through individuals who shared his (see e.g. the Manley panel on Afghanistan), Doer's appointment would make for the first time that a prominent figure from another party has been offered a position where some of his personal views might differ significantly from those of the Cons. Which means that this may be the ultimate litmus test as to whether Harper is capable of allowing even the most qualified and distinguished of public servants to apply some of their own values and ideas, or whether he'll limit Doer to doing nothing more than putting his name on the same old message.
Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of reason for optimism - and indeed find it a bit curious that Doer would have enough hope of being allowed to do anything useful to even want the appointment. But time will tell whether what looks to be a poor attempt to deflect attention from Harper's latest bout of Senate patronage will actually lead to some cracks in the Cons' wall of insularity.
From what I can tell, while the Harper government has sought the occasional "bipartisan" cover through individuals who shared his (see e.g. the Manley panel on Afghanistan), Doer's appointment would make for the first time that a prominent figure from another party has been offered a position where some of his personal views might differ significantly from those of the Cons. Which means that this may be the ultimate litmus test as to whether Harper is capable of allowing even the most qualified and distinguished of public servants to apply some of their own values and ideas, or whether he'll limit Doer to doing nothing more than putting his name on the same old message.
Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of reason for optimism - and indeed find it a bit curious that Doer would have enough hope of being allowed to do anything useful to even want the appointment. But time will tell whether what looks to be a poor attempt to deflect attention from Harper's latest bout of Senate patronage will actually lead to some cracks in the Cons' wall of insularity.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Thursday Night Link Blast
Clearing out a few random links currently taking up much-needed browser tab space...
- Yes, the Libs deserve to be mocked more than any one post can handle. Fortunately, Greg, NBC Dipper, pogge and Cameron are all up to the task.
- One piece of Gary Doer's announcement that he'll be stepping down as Manitoba's premier which doesn't seem to have received any attention yet is the question of whether he sees his legacy as set already, or whether there will be anything big to come this fall. Though it's probably true that Doer's previous governing style suggests he'll go out quietly rather than even considering any major initiatives as he steps down.
- For those who haven't seen it yet, Kent Peterson's Humble Opinion is the latest addition to a growing stable of Saskatchewan NDP blogs - and worth a read particularly for his youth-oriented perspective on politics.
- Finally, Michael Geist's post on federal copyright consultations this morning focused largely on the fact that submissions from some activist sites may have been wrongly lumped together. But it's interesting as well to take a look at the compiled numbers of submissions - particularly since in addition to an expected number of mainstream pro-user perspectives, they show more submissions backing outright "open copyright" than supporting stronger penalties for infringement, more support for eliminating copyright altogether than for halting "illegal file sharing", and more respondents endorsing the status quo without changes than backing the industry-driven bill which the Cons tried to foist on Canadians.
- Yes, the Libs deserve to be mocked more than any one post can handle. Fortunately, Greg, NBC Dipper, pogge and Cameron are all up to the task.
- One piece of Gary Doer's announcement that he'll be stepping down as Manitoba's premier which doesn't seem to have received any attention yet is the question of whether he sees his legacy as set already, or whether there will be anything big to come this fall. Though it's probably true that Doer's previous governing style suggests he'll go out quietly rather than even considering any major initiatives as he steps down.
- For those who haven't seen it yet, Kent Peterson's Humble Opinion is the latest addition to a growing stable of Saskatchewan NDP blogs - and worth a read particularly for his youth-oriented perspective on politics.
- Finally, Michael Geist's post on federal copyright consultations this morning focused largely on the fact that submissions from some activist sites may have been wrongly lumped together. But it's interesting as well to take a look at the compiled numbers of submissions - particularly since in addition to an expected number of mainstream pro-user perspectives, they show more submissions backing outright "open copyright" than supporting stronger penalties for infringement, more support for eliminating copyright altogether than for halting "illegal file sharing", and more respondents endorsing the status quo without changes than backing the industry-driven bill which the Cons tried to foist on Canadians.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Uncertain progress
There's some potentially good news today in the fight against global warming, as Gary Doer has announced that Manitoba will join Quebec in establishing emission reduction requirements for vehicles. But the promising sign also raises an important question: will Harper follow in Bushco's footsteps by overruling provincial emission standards in favour of less stringent federal rules?
Friday, May 25, 2007
On legacies
While it's hard to disagree with Greg's suggested legacy project for Gary Doer, it looks like Doer himself has a highly worthwhile idea as well:
But a concerted focus on clean and renewable energy could both secure Manitoba's economic future, and provide a wide swath of Canada with access to ample energy long after the oil sands stop booming. And in the longer term, such a move could ensure that Doer goes from being perceived as a merely a skilled manager, to being remembered for a mammoth contribution to Canadian sustainability.
(Doer) intends to continue his plan to make Manitoba Hydro a linchpin of the province’s economic development and to make the province a green economy leader. “I believe the future for Manitoba and the future of my children and grandchildren relies on developing renewable energy for all the people of Manitoba,” he has said.Of course, it would be all the better if Doer continues Manitoba's leadership on the political front as well as the environment.
To that end, he has revived the $5-billion Conawapa hydroelectric project in the province’s north - something he appears to envision as a legacy project.
But a concerted focus on clean and renewable energy could both secure Manitoba's economic future, and provide a wide swath of Canada with access to ample energy long after the oil sands stop booming. And in the longer term, such a move could ensure that Doer goes from being perceived as a merely a skilled manager, to being remembered for a mammoth contribution to Canadian sustainability.
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