Leadership 2012: Preliminary Candidate List

Having posted about the target groups and issues for the NDP's leadership campaign, let's take the next step and put some names to the possibilities. As hinted at in my last post, I'd see the ideal field as involving enough candidates to cover effectively all of the party's actual and potential bases - which will likely involve at least 4-5 strong contenders with complementary areas of strength. But who might be able to take on those roles?

Here's an initial list of 20 possible candidates who might fit into one of the top four or five slots in the race such as to have a plausible path to victory. And if anybody has strong opinions about additional names to add, I'll be happy to include them.

Thomas Mulcair

The obvious front-runner, and one of the few candidates who might be able to plan two radically different paths to victory. If anybody can run away with the leadership race, it's Mulcair with the prospect of selling memberships in Quebec to match the NDP's increase in votes and seats. But even if Mulcair can't manage that, he'll still have a strong chance to win support from the NDP's current membership as a highly-qualified and well-recognized advocate for the party (particularly on economic issues).
Target groups: Quebeckers, professional voters
Signature issues: Economic development, environment

Brian Topp

I'll list him here based on the multiple media declarations that he's the second and last top-tier candidate - though I'm not sure (despite his increasingly frequent forays into the public eye over the past few years) that he actually figures to rank ahead of a number of the candidates discussed below. That said, Topp is well identified with Jack Layton's plans for the NDP and is well known at least within the party - meaning that the main question for his candidacy would be whether his organization acumen could translate into new memberships.
Target groups: Quebeckers, labour
Signature issues: Good government

Olivia Chow

To the best of my knowledge, anybody applying a filter based on fluency in French will need to strike Chow among others off this list. But I'm far from sure that Chow's combination of personal strength and identification with Jack Layton's mission can't overcome that obstacle over the course of a leadership race - particularly given her potential to emerge as the leadership campaign's voice for women, urban members and new Canadians alike.
Target groups: Professionals, ethnic communities
Issues: Immigration, women's issues

Charlie Angus

Likewise, a language filter would drop Angus from the list. But he looks to offer a unique combination of rural and populist appeal alongside traits that will appeal to a range of urban members (particularly his arts/heritage background and his strong work on copyright and technological issues) - making him the rural candidate with the most plausible path to victory if he runs.
Target groups: Rural voters, young voters
Issues: Good government, arts & culture

Megan Leslie

On paper, Leslie's mix of issue work over her few years in Parliament and her previous stint as an activist would probably be the ideal background for an NDP leadership candidate. And while she'd have some work to do in building a national profile, she has a track record of emerging victorious even when another candidate starts out with the title of "heir apparent".
Target groups: Young voters, professionals
Issues: Poverty/inequality, health care, environment

Peter Julian

Rightly recognized by most reports so far as a strong candidate, Julian would combine bilingualism and Quebec organizing experience with a strong populist economic message and a history of success in a strongly multicultural riding. And if the corporate media kicks and screams through every minute of Julian's critique of inequality, then so much the better.
Target groups: Ethnic communities, labour
Issues: Economic development, poverty/inequality

Francoise Boivin

A highly visible and experienced Quebec MP in a field which could use at least a few choices fitting that description. The downside for Boivin is that she'd all too likely be an afterthought as long as Mulcair doesn't generate backlash - but if the front-runner were to falter, Boivin could be nicely positioned to collect his expected supporters.
Target groups: Quebeckers, professionals
Issues: Women's issues, human rights

Paul Dewar

He's often been mentioned as a future leadership contender thanks to his profile developed as the NDP's chief foreign policy spokesperson, but has somehow been a frequent omission from the media's lists over the past week. A safe, polished political veteran who could easily emerge as a compromise choice - but it's an open question as to whether he'll have the activist base needed to stay on the ballot to make that happen.
Target groups: Labour, professional voters
Signature issues: Human rights, good government

Romeo Saganash

Another of the NDP's star Quebec MPs with plenty of experience as a national-scale leader. But while Saganash has impressed plenty of members since his election, he was a very late addition to the NDP's roster of candidates - and so has a long way to go in building connections and support within the party.
Target groups: Rural voters, First Nations
Signature issues: Human rights, poverty/inequality, good government

Peggy Nash

A highly visible and experienced national labour leader with a strong base in the GTA. But there would be plenty of overlap between her constituency and Chow's, meaning that a successful Nash run would likely be predicated on Chow taking a pass.
Target groups: Labour
Signature issues: Economy, women's issues

Niki Ashton

The most plausible candidate from the Prairies thanks to her electoral success in rural Manitoba. But her chances in a leadership campaign may be based largely on what she's done since the May election: having served as a mentor to the NDP's Quebec neophytes as to how to succeed as a young MP, she'd need to incorporate them into her coalition to build a winning campaign on a rural base.
Target groups: Rural voters, young voters
Signature issues: Women's issues

Libby Davies

Davies could count on plenty of name recognition and activist support due to her longtime work on poverty and inequality issues as well as her role as the NDP's deputy leader. But however irrationally, her name has already come to be used as an insult to the NDP by the corporate media - and the work Davies would need to do to counter that existing negative impression would distract from some of the good that can come out of the leadership race.
Target groups: Labour, professionals
Signature issues: Poverty/inequality, human rights

Nathan Cullen

Another candidate with strong rural roots, including a particular reputation for turning the environment into a winning issue among non-traditional voters. But it's not clear that he'll want to run, and any delay in entering the race could see his window for growth close quickly.
Target groups: Rural voters
Signature issues: Environment, economic development

Don Davies

The current critic for citizenship, immigration and multiculturalism, effectively making him the NDP's answer to Jason Kenney in seeking to engage with ethnic communities. But it's an open question whether he's been in the role long enough to translate that work into leadership support.
Target groups: Ethnic communities, professionals
Signature issues: Immigration, human rights

Naomi Klein

For all the talk about MPs past and present, the NDP has never before run a leadership race while in its current Official Opposition role. And its growth into a party recognized as the leading contender for government might be the perfect opening for a prominent name associated with movement-building rather than party politics to make the jump - with Klein and Maude Barlow looming as the two obvious possibilities on that front.
Target groups: Young voters
Signature issues: Economic development, poverty/inequality, human rights

Robert Chisholm

The lone candidate who could bring direct experience as a party leader to the table - and his recent work on international trade would be a bonus. But the combination of his being unilingual and lacking much of a geographical base outside his home province would make for a long road to victory.
Target groups: Labour, professionals
Signature issues: Good government, economic development

Hoang Mai

I'm presuming none of the NDP's very youngest Quebec MPs will throw a hat into the ring. But Mai could make a dent in the leadership race by serving as the face of the movement while offering economic and international credentials which can win support in the wider party.
Target groups: Quebeckers, young voters, ethnic communities
Signature issues: Human rights, economic development

Linda Duncan

Nobody can dispute Duncan's bravery and political effectiveness in winning two consecutive elections in her home province's sea of blue. And she brings more environmental credentials to the table than all but a tiny handful of Canadian politicians. But while it would be a plus to see a candidate focusing primarily on growing the NDP in Alberta, I'm not sure that strategy would provide any realistic prospect of success in the leadership race.
Target groups: Professionals
Signature issues: Environment, women's issues

Joe Comartin

Often mentioned as a possible candidate based on his 2003 leadership run. But Comartin finished a distant fourth even in a far weaker field than we should expect this time out. And while he's served as a highly distinguished MP since then, it's hard to see what support base would have emerged to propel Comartin into contention.
Target groups: Professionals
Signature issues: Justice, human rights

Pierre Ducasse

Meanwhile, if anybody is looking for a 2003 leadership candidate to take another shot, how about the first face of Layton's efforts to build the NDP in Quebec? Ducasse has stayed active politically despite not running in this year's federal election, and his organizational work in multiple regions of Quebec could give him a fighting chance.
Target groups: Quebeckers, rural voters
Signature issues: Poverty/inequality, human rights

Update: For further discussion, Babble unsurprisingly has a thread already started. Update II: Continued. Update III: And again. Update IV: here.