On disinterest

In the comments to this morning's post, Celeste points out an article on the results from the Greens' nomination meeting in Saanich-Gulf Islands. But while Andrew Lewis has been nominated as the Greens' candidate once again, tonight's results suggest that Lewis is seriously lacking for support within the riding:

After a heated meeting and lively debate, Green party members in the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding voted today to run a candidate in the next federal election.

An e-mail urging Green Party members to vote "none of the above" rather than select Andrew Lewis as riding representative was sent out by a small group of dissenters Thursday.

The signees don't think a Green party candidate could win the riding and wants members to vote for Liberal candidate Briony Penn or NDP candidate Julian West, both former Green Party of B.C. members, instead of running one of their own in order to unseat Conservative MP Gary Lunn...

After the two hour meeting, 84 per cent of the 21 members in attendance voted to have Lewis represent the party.

Now, ordinarily a turnout of 21 people to acclaim a repeat candidate might not be cause for too much concern. But with the "none of the above" option receiving national media coverage in the days before the meeting, I'd have to figure that Lewis would have tried to rally his troops to solidify the nomination rather than risking having his candidacy torpedoed by even a modicum of organization on the "none of the above" side. And the Greens can't be happy that their investment of nearly $100,000 in Lewis over the past two federal elections translated into a meager 17 members who showed up to vote for him.

Of course, the "none of the above" camp proved to be even weaker at only 4 votes, meaning that Lewis will get the Green nomination again. But based on Lewis' tepid support and the public airing of the possibility of not contesting the riding, it looks entirely possible that the next federal election will continue Lewis' pattern of losing votes as time goes by - ensuring that a former target riding gets further out of reach for the Greens.

Update: A different set of numbers from another blog forced me to check my off-the-cuff math - but the result suggests that the Saanich-Gulf Islands Greens have their own results wrong. 17 votes out of 21 would have led to a result of 81%, while 18 would have led to a result of 86%: there's simply no way for a whole number of votes over a denominator of 21 to lead to a result of 84%.

It is possible that the result could have been something along the lines of 16 for Lewis, 3 for "none of the above" and 2 spoiled ballots - which would result in 21 members eligible to vote, while 84% of the actual votes went to Lewis. But that would only reduce Lewis' level of support even further...and hint at another set of potential voters who weren't willing to actually support him.

On island offensives

The Tyee has an interesting article on the state of the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding, where Gary Lunn, who manages to stand out as exceptionally reckless on the environment even among the Cons, has managed to hold onto a riding with a seemingly strong environmental vote. But while I'll leave Lunn's continued presence for a discussion another day, there's one note worth pointing out based on the riding's history.

While the Tyee notes that Green candidate Andrew Lewis was seen as a disappointment for his loss of votes from 2004 to 2006, the party's expenditures in the riding offer what looks to be a complete explanation for Lewis' dropoff. And the story surrounding Lewis says an awful lot about both where the Greens now stand nationally, and how unlikely they are to progress much further anytime soon.

In 2004, the Greens showered Saanich-Gulf Islands with $79,731 in election spending - close to the maximum expenditure for a riding, and nearly double the $40,318 spent on NDP candidate Jennifer Burgis (who still finished five points ahead of Lewis). In contrast, in 2006 the Greens seem to have put their money elsewhere, spending only $19,061.08 on Lewis - which combined with increased investments from the NDP and the Libs explains the Greens' dropoff in votes.

Now, that decline in spending offers a reasonable excuse for Lewis' 2006 performance. But the reality from 2004 highlights the distance between the Greens and victory in even the most favourable-looking ridings across the country. After all, Lewis couldn't break out of fourth place even while spending to the maximum in what was obviously a strong target riding - and the 2006 results signal that the Greens are fighting a losing battle to try to retain any support they can win with a single-riding push.

Out of an abundance of fairness to Lewis, I'll point out as well that his 2004 showing doesn't appear to reflect the most wasteful per-vote spending in the riding's history; that honour goes to the Canadian Action Party's Valerie Rampone, who managed to spend $4,335 on 234 votes in 1997 in a losing bid to finish ahead of the Natural Law Party. But especially with extremely strong environmental candidates running for the NDP and Libs, it looks like the Greens have already peaked in what was once their best hope for a seat - and aside from the media spotlight on Elizabeth May in her effort to leap past both the Cons and NDP in Central Nova, they'll likely have to hope to catch the other parties napping to seriously challenge anywhere else.