On island offensives

The Tyee has an interesting article on the state of the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding, where Gary Lunn, who manages to stand out as exceptionally reckless on the environment even among the Cons, has managed to hold onto a riding with a seemingly strong environmental vote. But while I'll leave Lunn's continued presence for a discussion another day, there's one note worth pointing out based on the riding's history.

While the Tyee notes that Green candidate Andrew Lewis was seen as a disappointment for his loss of votes from 2004 to 2006, the party's expenditures in the riding offer what looks to be a complete explanation for Lewis' dropoff. And the story surrounding Lewis says an awful lot about both where the Greens now stand nationally, and how unlikely they are to progress much further anytime soon.

In 2004, the Greens showered Saanich-Gulf Islands with $79,731 in election spending - close to the maximum expenditure for a riding, and nearly double the $40,318 spent on NDP candidate Jennifer Burgis (who still finished five points ahead of Lewis). In contrast, in 2006 the Greens seem to have put their money elsewhere, spending only $19,061.08 on Lewis - which combined with increased investments from the NDP and the Libs explains the Greens' dropoff in votes.

Now, that decline in spending offers a reasonable excuse for Lewis' 2006 performance. But the reality from 2004 highlights the distance between the Greens and victory in even the most favourable-looking ridings across the country. After all, Lewis couldn't break out of fourth place even while spending to the maximum in what was obviously a strong target riding - and the 2006 results signal that the Greens are fighting a losing battle to try to retain any support they can win with a single-riding push.

Out of an abundance of fairness to Lewis, I'll point out as well that his 2004 showing doesn't appear to reflect the most wasteful per-vote spending in the riding's history; that honour goes to the Canadian Action Party's Valerie Rampone, who managed to spend $4,335 on 234 votes in 1997 in a losing bid to finish ahead of the Natural Law Party. But especially with extremely strong environmental candidates running for the NDP and Libs, it looks like the Greens have already peaked in what was once their best hope for a seat - and aside from the media spotlight on Elizabeth May in her effort to leap past both the Cons and NDP in Central Nova, they'll likely have to hope to catch the other parties napping to seriously challenge anywhere else.