On successorship strategies

Naturally, Jack Layton's announcement that he's taking a temporary leave from the NDP's leadership has led to a wide assortment of speculation as to what might come next for the NDP, particularly if his absence does prove to be more than temporary. But I'm not sure the commentary so far has picked up on either the key challenge facing the party, or the obvious solution.

To start with, while it's fair enough to point out Layton's personal profile as a leader and discuss how any future successor might be able to match it, we shouldn't lose sight of how Layton got to where he is now.

I've argued for some time that Layton's popularity as a leader has been based not only on his personality and the NDP's strategy, but also on a helpful multi-party dynamic. In both election cycles since the Cons took power in 2006, we saw the Libs anoint a new leader while in opposition. And in both cases, the Cons responded with massive negative ad buys - which served to damage the new Lib leader, but also to build public fatigue with the Cons themselves (not to mention politics in general).

Against that background, Layton benefited immensely from the opportunity to develop his own public image over four election cycles without being personally dragged into the mud. And based on the contrast in public opinion between Layton and his rivals, it may well be too late for anybody to destroy Layton's image as long as he remains as NDP leader - meaning that the party wouldn't need to worry about an ad war to bolster his public profile.

Unfortunately, a new NDP leader wouldn't enjoy the same advantage. But the party could at least make use of the opportunity to learn from the Libs' mistakes, particularly if it works on building its own resources while Layton is in the picture.

From my perspective, the most important lesson to be taken from the past few years is that a newly-minted Leader of the Official Opposition needs to be ready to start defining himself or herself immediately - not merely by responding to the Cons' inevitable attacks, but by developing a strong public image from day one. And a key part of that effort figures to include not only efforts to connect in person, but also a positive ad campaign before the Cons dare to go negative.

With that potential need looming on the horizon, the NDP may want to put some extra focus on fund-raising in the next little while - with an emphasis on passing Layton's optimistic image to the party as a whole (including potential successors).

Ideally, that would offer more of a financial cushion for the next few years if Layton is able to return to his post. And in the worst-case scenario, it should at least help to make sure that the next leader has the best possible chance to follow in Layton's footsteps as the most highly-regarded leader in Canada.