On ripple effects

I've noted before that the main advantage for incumbents - and thus the main obstacle to substantial change - is the perception on the part of potential challengers that it's not worth mounting the effort to compete.

But it would seem to follow that when those potential challengers make the crucial decision as to whether or not to jump into a race, strong evidence that change is possible might serve to completely undo that usual incumbency effect. And it's a great sign that Ontario's provincial election will apparently have a far stronger NDP presence than expected now that the federal party has opened the door to gains:

Many have returned from the federal battles with tales of the most extraordinary wonders, of campaigns run on nickels and dimes that won, of Layton having pulled off the political equivalent of the loaves and fishes, of the wholly unknown vaulting to high office.

As a result, NDP nominations are now one of the hottest tickets in the political realm.

On Saturday, at the union hall of the United Association of Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 46, contested nominations were held to select candidates in two Scarborough ridings. Sunday, in the Toronto riding of Davenport, four contenders are vying to carry the orange banner in the Oct. 6 provincial election.
...
In Ontario this fall, “realistically now, the NDP can say, ‘Look, this is a three-way race for government,'” (candidate Bruce Budd) said.

“If we get 45 seats, 50 seats, we're going to be the biggest party. I don't think anyone would predict right now that we're going to get a majority. I think that's being unrealistic . . . But if there's a bit of a boost, where does it go?

“Together, we can keep the orange wave rolling!” he told the meeting. “Scarborough is there for the taking!”