French Debate Followup

As expected, last night's French debate came down largely to a contest between Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe. But while the reviews have been mixed as to which of the two came out on top for style points, I'd think the main point of distinction between the two is one that plays perfectly into the NDP's message for the balance of the campaign.

To my mind, much of the Bloc's success in the past has come from locking in on a single unpopular opponent, then setting itself up as the leading opposition to that party in Quebec. But that has often produced (presumably) unintended consequences, as both the Cons in 2006 and Libs in 2008 were able to perform better than expected in Quebec when they weren't considered the Bloc's main target and also painted themselves as alternative choices.

That made Duceppe's choice of messages and targets a crucial factor in last night's debate. And he mostly continued his pattern of taking aim at the Cons, telling voters to keep supporting his party in order to prevent a Harper majority.

But that left Duceppe with little reason to offer much substantive disagreement with the NDP. Instead, his main line of attack on Layton was a strategic voting argument - but one with particularly little prospect of resonating.

After all, most such arguments actually come from a party which at least has a theoretical chance of achieving the goal of defeating a mutual opponent. But in the Duceppe's case, the pitch looks even more empty than usual: even if the Bloc were to win every seat it contested and nothing else changed, the absolute best-case scenario would be the same relative party positioning and choice of governing arrangements it found unacceptable a month ago.

So Layton was able to combine his criticisms of Con and Lib governments with the prospect of something different and better, while Duceppe was left building up public outrage toward...nothing more than the promise of the same status quo he railed against in criticizing Harper. And while Duceppe may have managed to earn a draw or better in first impressions coming out of the debate, the contrast between competing populist cries of "yes we can!" and "no we can't!" is surely exactly what the NDP wants voters to have in mind come election day.

Of course, the Bloc does figure to have a huge advantage on the ground along with a more efficiently-distributed vote - so even a significant shift in public opinion might not result in more than a few seats changing hands. But there's still ample reason for optimism that the NDP will be able to build on its already strong position in Quebec - and at least a chance that the frustrations channeled into the Bloc for so long will finally find an outlet in a national party instead.

[Edit: fixed wording.]