On second choices

The initial commentary on Abacus' second choice polling has focused on single-party choices. But perhaps the most striking bit of data is the far right column, showing the total number of people willing to move to each party.

There, the NDP has moved from ranking roughly equally with the other parties in past polling, to a stunning nine-point lead over any other party. In fact, the NDP's share of potential support adding together the Abacus respondents' expressed first and second choices is 41% - ahead of the Libs (39%), and within striking distance of the Cons (45%).

Now, it's not particularly new for the NDP to perform well in second-choice polling. And there's obviously a lot of work to be done in shifting that to first-choice support. But for voters who list the NDP second primarily out of a sense that the Libs can draw from a larger pool of potential voters, the latest poll offers significant reason to doubt that's true - and if just a few current Lib supporters start to shift their votes, there's a real possibility of a major realignment.