Shifting sands

We may be some distance yet from actually breaking out of the longstanding impasse on the federal political scene. But a couple of stories today hint at some potentially major changes afoot in Quebec whose effects could reverberate across the country.

First off, there's the talk that the Bloc may be willing to prop up the Harper Cons until 2012 in order to secure funding for a Quebec arena and other goodies for the province - while the Cons would send a bundle of money to Edmonton to try to paper over any questions about the arrangement.

Now, I'd take the theory with a large grain of salt: after all, it's hard to see the upside for a party whose success is normally based on generating outrage against the current federal government rather than being seen as sharing in power. And likewise, the Cons don't seem to have much need to buy off the Bloc when the Libs still aren't putting up any serious resistance.

But the reasons for skepticism are also the reasons why such a deal would make for a potentially massive change in the parties' positions in Quebec. By reversing course after running as the best choice to stop Harper, the Bloc would effectively be declaring itself to be a regional brokerage party, while the role of chief opponent to the Harper Cons in Quebec would be wide open for the taking.

And that's where the other big news of the day comes in, as the latest Leger poll has the NDP on even terms with the Libs for second place in Quebec, including the highest francophone support of any national party.

That's a positive enough sign of progress in and of itself, even if it's subject to the usual caveats about reading too much into a single poll. But remember that even before the latest round of polling, the NDP was already the preferred second choice for Bloc voters. And if the Bloc is about to abandon progressivism and populism in one fell swoop in an effort to be seen as a power broker...well, it's not hard to see which party is best positioned to take over that support.

Meanwhile, the stadium funding issue has also proven to be an explosive one within the Cons. And it's not hard to foresee a scenario where a combination of further frustrated fiscal conservatives and populist voters see through the Edmonton smokescreen and tip a few more seats out of the Cons' column as well.

For now, we'll have to wait and see whether the Bloc indeed flips from competing for anti-Con votes to presenting itself primarily as a deal-maker. But if it does, then the NDP may have an unprecedented opportunity to keep growing in the province where so much of the current logjam originates, while also gaining ground in the West. And that could turn the oft-discussed two-party impasse into a three-party melee as the next election approaches.