Following up on last week's look at where the Saskatchewan NDP stands in the near future (i.e. the leadup to the 2011), let's take a look at the party's longer-term positioning. And for that, the most important talk from the Prince Albert convention is Cam Broten's talk on provincial demographics, which can be found here following his introduction to the policy review process.
Initially, it struck me as surprising that the party would set time aside for a discussion of demographic trends rather than focusing on its near-term political goals. But its long-term planning obviously has to be based on some awareness of what the province will look like several election cycles down the road - and there's reason for optimism that the NDP will be well-positioned for the changing look of Saskatchewan.
Importantly, Saskatchewan is one of the few provinces not facing the type of demographic time bomb of the type pointed out by Dan Gardner. Instead, we can count on a moderate but steady increase in base population - with that growth based almost entirely in First Nations communities. And likewise, the First Nations population may make for an important exception to the rule that residents will shift from rural to urban areas.
Meanwhile, the other factors influencing the makeup of Saskatchewan's population (being international and interprovincial migration) may be far more difficult to predict. Obviously the province will hope to keep growing in these departments as well, and all parties will try to ensure some inroads into communities of new residents - but it'll be a gamble to count on a mobile population as a party's base for the future.
Which means that beyond the current party starting points, the most obvious area for potential growth is First Nations voters present and future. And that dovetails nicely with the spotlight on Lawrence Joseph at the NDP's convention, as well as the party's commitment to First Nations issues (which is now being tailored to be more responsive to community needs).
Of course, there are still risks involved in counting on any one group as the source of future growth - and the NDP will need to make a particularly concerted effort to overcome a perception that the broader political system doesn't address First Nations needs in order to improve turnout levels. But at the very least, the NDP can point to the most obvious demographic trend as one which can realistically be expected to improve its position.
And the NDP's future strength is only amplified when contrasted against the latest Sask Party budget and its direct attacks on First Nations. One could see the Sask Party as trying to bypass traditional First Nations institutions and cultures to pull new voters into a melting pot, or perhaps figure that it's hoping for in-migration to overwhelm the growth in Saskatchewan's First Nations population. But either of those paths looks to rely primarily on blind hope rather than any great likelihood of success - and each could very easily backfire if the Sask Party's assumptions prove wrong.
All of which is to say that while the NDP's chances in 2011 may look better now than they did a few months ago, there's reason to think that the long-term future will be even brighter. And that should offer plenty of encouragement for citizens to get involved now, knowing that there may be an opportunity to implement the NDP's vision for the province over many election cycles to come.
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