On precedents

With both main parties already gearing up for Saskatchewan's 2011 election, one of the major questions has to be the baseline expectation for each in recruiting candidates and directing their efforts. From current polling numbers, one would expect the Sask Party to be on the offensive; from historical support, the NDP would look to have plenty of room for growth. So let's take a look at Saskatchewan's political past to see what factors figure to have the advantage.

Of Saskatchewan's 26 general elections, 2 followed a minority government, and 1 didn't start from an existing provincial legislature. That leaves 23 elections where a majority government has faced Saskatchewan voters.

Out of those 23 elections:
- Twice (1908, 1960) the governing party roughly treaded water, holding its seat total or proportion of the seat total plus or minus 3 seats;
- 6 times (1912, 1917, 1925, 1952, 1967, 1978) the governing party managed to increase its seat total by more than 3 seats; and
- 15 times the governing party lost 3 or more seats, including 7 elections resulting in a change in government.

What's more, half of the elections featuring a gain in government seats involved a see-saw in seats for the same Liberal government that held control over the province for the first six elections after the province came into being. That leaves three relatively modern examples of governing parties managing to improve their seat count. And there are some noteworthy similarities between them: all resulted from a moment of two-party polarization where the government and (new) official opposition gained substantial shares of the vote, while other established opposition parties dropped off.

Now, it's an open question as to whether the Libs and Greens have much of a vote share left to lose, not to mention how any splits will turn out. But if the Sask Party can't both drive their numbers down and pick up the bulk of those votes, the default pattern looks to be that a majority government will tend to lose seats - and indeed will lose power nearly as often as it manages to hold its ground.

And the trend in seat counts is even more clear when one focuses on the first election after a change in government. The elections representing the first for a majority government have led to the following seat changes for the governing party:

-12 (1938), -16 (1948), +3 (1967), -6 (1975), -17 (1986), -13 (1995)

That makes for a rough average of -10 seats each time out. Which, coincidentally, would be just enough of a swing to propel the NDP back to power if it's replicated in 2011.

Of course, the NDP's seat total today is a relatively high one for a new official opposition, which might make for reason to doubt that the exact numbers will apply in this case. But it still seems that the Sask Party will be fighting a strong historical current in 2011.

Interestingly enough, it looks like both parties will end up hearkening back to different points in the same era as their ideal outcome for 2011. While the NDP has made a concerted effort to replicate the party and policy development which helped it to win power in 1971, the Sask Party looks to have to point to 1967 as about the only Saskatchewan historical precedent for what it'll be trying to accomplish. And while Brad Wall's rhetoric may be disturbingly similar to that used by Ross Thatcher at that time, it remains to be seen whether the message still has any real resonance.