On brand erosion

The flurry of polls released over the last couple of days has undoubtedly signalled that the public's view of the Cons has taken a nosedive over prorogation. But it's perhaps even more significant that the Cons are also losing ground in areas which don't seem to have much to do with prorogation - including in particular one which is at the core of their brand:

When compared to the findings of an Angus Reid survey conducted in October 2008—just days before the federal election that resulted in a second Conservative minority government—Canadians are less likely to believe that a Tory majority would recriminalize abortion (24%, down 10 points), repeal same-sex marriage (34%, down five points), implement a process to have an elected Senate (35%, down six points), keep taxes low across the country (30%, down 17 points) and subdue the threat of separatism (25%, down 10 points).

Now, it's interesting enough that respondents have reduced their perceived likelihood of every single option presented to them under a Harper majority. But the shift in expectations on taxes dwarfs that on any other issue.

Indeed, two scenarios which were seen as less likely than the "keep taxes low" option in 2008 by at least six points (the repeal of same-sex marriage and the election of senators) are now perceived as relatively more likely. And the latter has switched places despite Harper's repeated broken promises when it comes to the Senate.

What's more, it's hard to see how the Cons can try to win back the skeptics anytime soon. In truth, the Cons have already cut taxes far enough to drive the country far into the red for years to come. And any move to cut taxes further would figure to create more trouble from deficit hawks who have previously bought the Cons' implausible claim to fiscal responsibility than it would be worth in gathering support among tax-cutters.

So unless the poll is simply an outlier in canvassing the relative perceptions among the issues polled, the Cons are rapidly losing a key part of their core message, with no apparent way to stop the damage. And that loss of any perceived core beliefs to point to will only make it more difficult for the Cons to try to win back the support they've been losing over the past month.